ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[poof121]

Seems like NYC dodged a big bullet. Good thing too.

that might be a tad premature.

And dangerous.

[CrazyC83]

What is the conversion rate of flight level winds to the surface? Latest vdm found 105 kt (120 mph) winds as the peak in the southeast quadrant.

I have always heard to multiply the flight level wind by 90% (.9) ... then multiply that figure by 1.15 to convert it from knots to mph.

So in this case ... 108 mph?

The 90% rule doesn't quite apply here since dropsondes and SFMR are finding winds not as strong.

[micktooth]

Seems like NYC dodged a big bullet. Good thing too.

Please explain

[Portastorm]

Seems like NYC dodged a big bullet. Good thing too.

that might be a tad premature.

It is VERY premature. Coastal areas of New York and New Jersey are still primed to receive a Category 4-like storm surge, not to mention Category 1 hurricane winds and torrential rain.

[Hogweed]

Seems like NYC dodged a big bullet. Good thing too.

I repeat

Its Destructive storm surge/wave rating has not decreased. Still at 5.1 (on a scale of 0-6) per latest http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... /wind.html

[ozonepete]

Seems like NYC dodged a big bullet. Good thing too.

that might be a tad premature.

It is VERY premature. Coastal areas of New York and New Jersey are still primed to receive a Category 4-like storm surge, not to mention Category 1 hurricane winds and torrential rain.

Hmmm. When was the last time we heard that a major city had dodged a bullet? New Orleans?

[hurr123]

I am not so sure that Irene will reach NC as a Cat. 2 hurricane; however there is still time for it to intensify before it reaches the coast.

[TheBurn]

17:45Z VIS/IR

[Lane]

Where are you getting this info that NYC has dodged the bullet?? Please correct me if I am wrong but this storm still has NYC in its cross hairs. Right?

[tolakram]

We need to stop the one liners that make statements with no basis in fact or the proper disclaimer. These always lead to 4 or 5 retort posts and make this thread very tedious to navigate. People are coming here for information, please think before you post.

Thanks.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like Irene make have taken a vitamin pill. New convection
building around the center.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

Don't let those reds fool you stormcenter. It did the same thing in the middle of the night and then 3 hours later they were gone...It also did the same thing
last night as well.

[Ellsey]

I feel like people need to get past the wind intensity. That is not going to be the main issue here. Storm surge is. Please, please heed all local warnings!





I am merely a professional internet lurker; this is only my opinion. Please see NHC and NWC for your official information.

[perk]

I was watching Bill Read on TWC and he said he wish we did'nt have hurricane categories. He want people to focus on the the fact that Irene is a large storm alot like Ike and the massive storm surge that it will bring.

[StormGuy]

I feel like people need to get past the wind intensity. That is not going to be the main issue here. Storm surge is. Please, please heed all local warnings!





I am merely a professional internet lurker; this is only my opinion. Please see NHC and NWC for your official information.

And 100mph still isn't something to take lightly either.

[imetrice]

Seems like NYC dodged a big bullet. Good thing too.

that might be a tad premature.

I recall that we felt the same way when Katrina veered into Mississippi....flooding from rain and surge is a real concern....please don't just worry about winds...cone...etc. Do what is necessary to prepare.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I897 using Tapatalk

[Lane]

Can we expect to see the N @ 14 to increase?

[Ivanhater]

Folks, the danger has not been the wind with this storm...it has been the storm surge which has not changed. A big disaster is still on course...hopefully things change but it has not changed yet.

[Jevo]

12z GFDL +48



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12z GFDL +54



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[tolakram]

live 24 frame vis loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

Note the obvious improvement since this morning. I believe the shear that was hitting Irene this morning has reduced significantly.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ConvergenceZone]

I was watching Bill Read on TWC and he said he wish we did'nt have hurricane categories. He want people to focus on the the fact that Irene is a large storm alot like Ike and the massive storm surge that it will bring.

I 100% agree! The storm surge should still be really bad, along with the copius amount of rain! BUT we should still feel better today than we did yesterday... The reason I say this is, IF this does weaken to a cat 1 prior to landfall, it's still better than a Cat 2 or above for obvious reasons. ...That's why you don't see me downplaying the surge or the rain, because it's still going to be really bad, but sometimes in bad situations, we should be thankful that it could be much worse if the storm wouldn't have weakened.....