WTPQ20 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1103 SARIKA (1103)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 21.8N 116.9E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 111500UTC 26.9N 116.9E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
WTPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (SARIKA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 21.3N 116.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 116.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.6N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.1N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 28.6N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 116.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND
111500Z.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (SARIKA) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 35NM TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED
ON THE IR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON A 996MB SHIP OBSERVATION 40 NM AWAY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. TS SARIKA
IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE STEERING RIDGE
AXIS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL EAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. DUE TO THE MODERATE VWS, TS 05W SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY
BEFORE LAND INTERACTION CAUSES THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. AFTER LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC
FORECAST TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
Where's the TS again?
SSD Dvorak of only T1.0 suggests current system intensity comes from weakening constraints:
TXPQ23 KNES 101540
TCSWNP
A. 05W (SARIKA)
B. 10/1501Z
C. 22.0N
D. 116.9E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/2.0/W1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION RESULTING IN A DT OF LESS
THAN 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGES
IN FT TO 1.0 OVER 6HRS. POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 20 NM (37 KM).
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
