EPAC: DORA - Remnants

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[KWT]

The models have constantly been heading northwards when it comes to strength, it probably be past most of those estimates this time tomorrow if it keeps wrapping like it is now...

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Up to 45kts.

EP, 04, 2011071900, , BEST, 0, 109N, 935W, 45, 1000, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[HURAKAN]

00z Best Track

Up to 45kts.

EP, 04, 2011071900, , BEST, 0, 109N, 935W, 45, 1000, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

EP, 04, 2011071900, , BEST, 0, 109N, 935W, 50, 997, TS

Up to 50 knots

[cycloneye]

Yes,organizing fast.

Sandy,the administrators fixed the graphic and now the forecast tracks are seen as you eluded to a few days ago.

[cycloneye]

00:00z Tropical Models

SHIP peak intensity is up to 92kts.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 190041
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0041 UTC TUE JUL 19 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DORA (EP042011) 20110719 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110719  0000   110719  1200   110720  0000   110720  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.9N  93.5W   11.3N  96.2W   12.1N  98.9W   13.0N 101.1W
BAMD    10.9N  93.5W   11.6N  95.7W   12.7N  97.9W   14.1N 100.0W
BAMM    10.9N  93.5W   11.7N  96.3W   12.7N  99.1W   13.9N 101.8W
LBAR    10.9N  93.5W   11.6N  96.2W   12.9N  99.0W   14.3N 101.8W
SHIP        50KTS          59KTS          69KTS          79KTS
DSHP        50KTS          59KTS          69KTS          79KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110721  0000   110722  0000   110723  0000   110724  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.2N 103.2W   17.0N 106.7W   20.4N 109.3W   23.7N 112.4W
BAMD    15.8N 102.0W   19.1N 105.2W   21.9N 107.5W   24.4N 110.4W
BAMM    15.2N 104.1W   18.0N 107.8W   20.5N 109.9W   22.8N 112.6W
LBAR    15.8N 104.3W   18.5N 108.1W   20.9N 110.8W   23.6N 113.4W
SHIP        87KTS          92KTS          77KTS          64KTS
DSHP        87KTS          92KTS          77KTS          64KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.9N LONCUR =  93.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  10.5N LONM12 =  91.1W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  10.1N LONM24 =  89.0W
WNDCUR =   50KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS =  997MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  160NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =   90NM RD34SE =   90NM RD34SW =   60NM RD34NW =  90NM


[HURAKAN]

Sandy, the administrators fixed the graphic and now the forecast tracks are seen as you eluded to a few days ago.

I asked about the problem in S2K's facebook page and it was fixed!!!

[Yellow Evan]

Don't be surprised if the 3z advisory says 55 knts.

[Ivanhater]

Classic case of the intensity models playing catch up

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, this intensification is nothing right now. The indicator I use just popped up pretty sharply. Give this system another 6 to 12 hours (I prefer 6 to 8, but eh), and it will most likely explode. I believe it'll start between 3 am and 6 am (perhaps DMAX?), and it'll definitely be greater than a 30 knot increase in a 24 hour period (maybe as much as 45 or 50 knots).

[Yellow Evan]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Dora seems to be looking more and more interesting. My new forecast for Dora has a track more closer to the coast of Mexico, and a threat to Baja in about five days, when I expect it to be a td at best.

Here is my forecast

12 hr 55 knts
24 hr 70 knts
36 hr 90 knts
48 hr 105 knts
60 hr 120 knts
72 hr 115 knts
96 hr 70 knts
120 hr 30 knts

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

...DORA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 94.1W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST. DORA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DORA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND MEXICO ON TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DORA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IN
ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS INCREASED
SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...AND A CDO APPEARS TO BE FORMING. RECENT 37
GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW INCREASED INNER-CORE
STRUCTURE WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A LOW-LEVEL RING FEATURE. THE
LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0 AND 2.5...
RESPECTIVELY...AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS ARE 3.0. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON THE TAFB AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.

THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING...WITH LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.
MYSTERIOUSLY...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN DORA AS
MUCH AS I WOULD EXPECT. THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE SHOWS A PEAK
INTENSITY OF AROUND 90 KT IN 48-60 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL/HWRF ARE
ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE GUIDANCE
DURING THE FIRST 24-36 AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT TO THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. AFTER 72 HOURS...DORA
WILL BE APPROACHING COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE BY THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/12. THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD KEEP DORA ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
HEADING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DURING THAT TIME...THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
DORA TO SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN TO GAIN MORE LATITUDE. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AT DAYS 3-5 WHICH REQUIRED A SMALL
EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT HAVE RECENTLY EXHIBITED A RIGHT-OF-TRACK
BIAS FOR SYSTEMS SOUTH OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS LEFT OF TVCN AND CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED A 0000 UTC SHIP
OBSERVATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 11.1N 94.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 11.6N 96.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 12.5N 98.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 13.6N 101.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 14.9N 103.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 17.3N 107.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 19.0N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 21.0N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Hurricane Jed]

Given how it seems to be ahead of what forecasters are calling for strengthening, I'd say it peaks at 125-130 mph

[Yellow Evan]

Can we use knts please? The NHC does not use 130 mph. Ill post my new forecast out in about a half an hour.

[Macrocane]

That's kind of picky , I don't see why he can't use mph, though personally I understand more kt than mph, and km/h more than kt as in this part of the world we use km/h for speeds. Back on topic, I trust the NHC forecast for now, as the models are not showing more than a cat 3 hurricane but I believe that there's a high chance for a little more intensification as you have stated above, maybe a peak of 115 kt or 215 km/h or 135 mph

[Yellow Evan]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'v revised my forecast for Dora. No change in the track forecast is necessary, but I am revising my intensity forecast. I now forecast the storm to peak at 135 knts, just below Cat 5.
12 hr 65 knts
24 hr 80 knts
36 hr 100 knts
48 hr 120 knts
60 hr 135 knts
72 hr 130 knts
96 hr 75 knts
120 hr Gone

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE
CENTER OF DORA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...A SSMIS
PASS AT 0242 UTC SUGGESTS THAT THE INNER-CORE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 55 KT BASED ON A
DVORAK CI-NUMBER OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES OF 50
TO 55 KT.

DORA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE AND
POTENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS THE HIGH SLOWLY WEAKENS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES PUSHES THE RIDGE EASTWARD. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...KEEPING THE CENTER
OF DORA OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.

ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF DORA APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 29C AND IN A MOIST ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION...
THE MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO LESSEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS DORA TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH LATER TODAY AND TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.
THE NHC FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE FOR THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS. STEADY OR
EVEN RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AS DORA
MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 11.4N 95.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 12.1N 98.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 13.3N 100.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 14.5N 103.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 15.7N 105.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 17.8N 108.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 19.5N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 21.5N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[KWT]

I've got a feeling like others that the NHC will have to up its intensity forecast if it continues to progress like it is currently.

[HURAKAN]

continues to become better organized

[WmE]

Looks like a hurricane. I expect an upgrade soon.