WPAC: NOCK-TEN (Juaning) - Tropical Depression

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#81 Postby oaba09 » Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:37 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 14.1N 125.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 125.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.8N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.3N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.7N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.2N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.4N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 23.6N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 125.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPOXIMATELY 255 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS ACCELERATED AND TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z,
260900Z AND 261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11W (ELEVEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#82 Postby KWT » Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:39 am

Looks like trackwise they are following the ECM which is much quicker and further NE then the 06z GFS...at least they don't weaken it for no reason this forecast!
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#83 Postby oaba09 » Mon Jul 25, 2011 10:23 am

latest from PAGASA:

Image
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#84 Postby KWT » Mon Jul 25, 2011 10:52 am

Interesting how both agencies are going with the ECM's track and therefore further east...though the JWTC seems more reasonable.

My guess is they maybe a little too far east.
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WPAC: 11W- Tropical Depression

#85 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:27 pm

JMA starts warnings as a TD.

TD
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 25 July 2011
<Analyses at 25/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N14°05'(14.1°)
E125°10'(125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

Image
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#86 Postby oaba09 » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:53 pm

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 14.7N 124.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 124.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.8N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.8N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.1N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.2N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.4N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.0N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.8N 104.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 124.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS 10W
IS STILL STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY AGAINST THE EFFECTS OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS THE SEVERE DEGREE OF SUPPRESSION ON POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED, HOWEVER, AND
NET VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM REMAINS AT APPROXIMATELY 15
KNOTS. TWO CONSECUTIVE PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES (250151Z AND 251256Z) DO
REVEAL SOME DEVELOPMENT RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS DAY. BOTH SHOW
BROAD FIELDS OF 20-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A
251143Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZATION IN
THE LOW LEVEL BANDING. THE 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, THE COMBINED
EFFECT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A DVORAK
ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW, THE ASCAT IMAGERY, AND SEVERAL
SURFACE REPORTS FROM COASTAL STATIONS IN COASTAL SAMAR AND LUZON.
SEVERAL STATIONS ARE SHOWING RISING WESTERLIES AND FALLING PRESSURES
THAT EXTRAPOLATE TO A SYSTEM INTENSITY OF 1000 MB AND 30 KNOTS.
GUIDANCE HAS STABILIZED AND IS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER ALIGNMENT
REGARDING A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LUZON RATHER THAN THROUGH THE
LUZON STRAIT. JTWC HAS BROUGHT THE FORECAST TRACK EQUATORWARD,
STAYING JUST NORTH OF CONSENSUS. THE TRACK ADJUSTMENT RESULTS IN
GREATER SYSTEM DEGRADATION DURING THE TRACK ACROSS LUZON (TAU 18
THROUGH 30), A LONGER TRAJECTORY OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND
GREATER CLEARANCE ON HONG KONG. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 72, AS INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE LAND INTERACTION EFFECTIVELY. TD 10W
WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS LUZON AND TAKE SOME
TIME TO RE-GATHER STRENGTH ONCE IT ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. IN
THE EXTENDED RANGE, THE EFFECTS OF INCREASED SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION WILL ACT TO WEAKEN THE STORM BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W(ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#87 Postby oaba09 » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:25 pm

A more southern track for JMA...

Image

TD
Issued at 22:05 UTC, 25 July 2011
<Analyses at 25/21 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N14°20'(14.3°)
E124°20'(124.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 26/21 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°20'(15.3°)
E121°40'(121.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
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#88 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:46 pm

Image

looks to be very close to tropical storm status
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#89 Postby dhoeze » Mon Jul 25, 2011 7:40 pm

Almost zero visbility here at Makati (Metro Manila)
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#90 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 25, 2011 7:58 pm

TXPQ28 KNES 252156
TCSWNP

A. 10W (NONAME)

B. 25/2032Z

C. 14.4N

D. 124.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI/AMSRE/AMSU

H. REMARKS...POSITION OF LLCC AIDED BY MULTIPLE MICROWAVE PASSES. CENTER
IS ON NORTHERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH MODERATE SHEAR
EVIDENT. SHEAR PATTERN NOT USED WHICH WOULD HAVE GIVEN UNREALISTICALLY
HIGH T-NUMBER. 4 TENTHS BANDING GIVES DT=2.5. MET=2.0 AND PT=2.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

25/1630Z 14.3N 124.3E TMI
25/1701Z 14.3N 124.1E AMSRE
25/1822Z 14.4N 123.8E AMSU


...RUMINSKI
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#91 Postby supercane » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:20 pm

832
WTPQ20 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1108 NOCK-TEN (1108) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 14.2N 123.7E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 15.5N 121.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 280000UTC 17.6N 117.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 290000UTC 18.9N 113.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =
Image
TPPN10 PGTW 260022
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (E OF PHILIPPINES)
B. 25/2332Z
C. 13.6N
D. 123.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 44A/PBO LARGE CDO/ANMTN. 90NM CF W/NO BF YIELDS A
2.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HATHAWAY
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Tropical Storm

#92 Postby oaba09 » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:33 pm

from HKO:

Image
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Re:

#93 Postby oaba09 » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:39 pm

supercane wrote:832
WTPQ20 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1108 NOCK-TEN (1108) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 14.2N 123.7E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 15.5N 121.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 280000UTC 17.6N 117.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 290000UTC 18.9N 113.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =
Image
TPPN10 PGTW 260022
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (E OF PHILIPPINES)
B. 25/2332Z
C. 13.6N
D. 123.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 44A/PBO LARGE CDO/ANMTN. 90NM CF W/NO BF YIELDS A
2.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HATHAWAY


based on this image, it seems like the whole central and southern luzon will experience at least 30 knot winds
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Tropical Storm

#94 Postby ManilaTC » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:41 pm

Just terrific, its now taking a path similar to Ketsana/Ondoy in 2009.
Just hoping and praying that it doesnt blow up convection wise over the next 6-24 hours and make a repeat scenario...

Geez.

PAGASA has been heads on to this one now, and I applaud them for it.
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Tropical Storm

#95 Postby oaba09 » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:45 pm

ClarkEligue wrote:Just terrific, its now taking a path similar to Ketsana/Ondoy in 2009.
Just hoping and praying that it doesnt blow up convection wise over the next 6-24 hours and make a repeat scenario...

Geez.

PAGASA has been heads on to this one now, and I applaud them for it.


Yup, PAGASA's tracks have been reliable the past few storms....

Kudos to them!
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Tropical Storm

#96 Postby ManilaTC » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:52 pm

oaba09 wrote:
ClarkEligue wrote:Just terrific, its now taking a path similar to Ketsana/Ondoy in 2009.
Just hoping and praying that it doesnt blow up convection wise over the next 6-24 hours and make a repeat scenario...

Geez.

PAGASA has been heads on to this one now, and I applaud them for it.


Yup, PAGASA's tracks have been reliable the past few storms....

Kudos to them!


And this morning they have advised that their track line has been dipping for the last few hours and have advised Manilenos to stay alert.
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#97 Postby oaba09 » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:59 pm

Latest:

Pagasa upgrades "juaning" to a tropical storm...Signal # 2 already raised in catanduanes, albay, and camarines
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#98 Postby oaba09 » Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:27 pm

update:
classes have already been suspended in multiple areas in luzon(including metro manila)...
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#99 Postby oaba09 » Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:39 pm

from typhoon2000:

"At 9:00 AM Local Time, Typhoon2000 Automated Weather Station in Naga City (13.6N 123.2E) has recorded wind gust of 48.3 kph blowing from the West, with barometric pressure of 995.0 millibars & 33-hr. Rainfall Accumulation of 230 mm."
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#100 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:58 pm

This is a real test for PAGASA, large areas of Luzon have been under very deep convection all night so flooding must be taking place in quite a few areas.

I have to say I'm really not impressed with JTWC who just issued 0300z advisory for 11W, a very weak TD affecting no-one, ahead of Nockten which is obviously an immediate threat to the Philippines and US military interests there.

I really do wonder why they seem to be the preferred agency of so many (especially in the media...)
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