ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Live 30 frame visible loop, rapid capture: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

Speed it up for full effect. Very interesting to watch what looks to be a fixed feature near the center.

[psyclone]

Wxguy1, thanks for sharing your thoughts in that detailed post. Last night i believe it was norcross on twc who referenced a discussion out of the nws in philly that stated Irene's outflow may be enhanced by a jet streak forecast to reside over the St Lawrence valley once she gets to around the delmarva/jersey latitude allowing the storm to remain very deep to an unusually high latitude. Does anyone know if that is still in the cards?

[r_u_stuck2]

FWIW,
The national electric grid has been under extreme stress with the death ridge & generally from very high temps. Since the midwest event several years ago that also took out the lights into Canada. IMHO I believe that power companies within 1000 miles of the northeast will conference with other power companies across this area about taking down the nuclear plants in a controlled matter vs having the plants scram all at once. The hydro plants are probably putting a lot of water thru the flood gates due to expecting a lot of rain. I dearly hope that a localized power outage is all we get & not a more broad power outage.
Written by an electrical/mechanical engineer. The thoughts of one & only one.

Because forecasts have not predicted hurricane-force winds in the area, Progress Energy said that its Brunswick nuclear plant along the North Carolina coastline will continue to operate throughout the storm — although the NRC has sent extra staff to the station.

http://www.elp.com/index/display/articl ... gland.html

[WilmingtonSandbar]

49 mph sustained wind at Wrightsville Beach and 55mph gust just reported on the local news.

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 262218
AF308 2909A IRENE HDOB 24 20110826
220900 3232N 07758W 6963 02954 9801 +111 +044 042052 053 046 002 00
220930 3231N 07756W 6966 02943 9792 +115 +046 042054 054 046 003 00
221000 3230N 07755W 6962 02944 9790 +113 +049 042055 055 048 002 00
221030 3229N 07753W 6966 02933 9791 +110 +052 043053 054 047 003 00
221100 3228N 07752W 6961 02935 9783 +109 +055 043054 055 049 002 00
221130 3227N 07750W 6967 02921 9773 +115 +057 042055 056 049 002 00
221200 3226N 07748W 6965 02923 9767 +115 +058 042057 058 050 003 00
221230 3225N 07747W 6963 02917 9756 +118 +060 041060 061 051 000 03
221300 3224N 07745W 6965 02910 9746 +120 +062 041062 062 052 002 00
221330 3222N 07744W 6965 02904 9736 +124 +064 040062 062 053 001 03
221400 3221N 07742W 6963 02901 9732 +120 +067 040063 063 053 000 03
221430 3220N 07740W 6965 02891 9716 +127 +070 040063 064 054 000 00
221500 3219N 07739W 6962 02884 9709 +128 +072 040064 064 055 001 00
221530 3218N 07737W 6966 02873 9691 +134 +074 042065 065 054 004 00
221600 3217N 07736W 6967 02867 9686 +133 +076 045067 068 057 004 00
221630 3216N 07734W 6958 02864 9674 +134 +077 047068 070 057 003 00
221700 3215N 07733W 6965 02850 9682 +119 +076 048056 058 056 007 00
221730 3214N 07731W 6967 02843 9674 +121 +074 047055 057 056 003 00
221800 3213N 07730W 6963 02839 9653 +134 +071 044055 055 056 002 03
221830 3212N 07728W 6969 02829 9642 +139 +069 048053 053 055 001 03
$$
;

[tolakram]

Latest Wilmington radar loop (saved)

[psyclone]

I have to say and this is just a feeling not a forecast. But I think CAT 3 before landfall is not out of the question. She is about to be in a area that is prime for her.

she's a lumbering giant. significant changes in intensity are unlikely imo.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262216
NOAA2 3009A IRENE HDOB 14 20110826
220630 3349N 07704W 7517 02427 9936 +136 //// 095071 074 060 023 01
220700 3350N 07703W 7524 02418 9936 +139 //// 098069 071 056 022 01
220730 3352N 07702W 7536 02412 9940 +139 //// 104068 070 057 022 01
220800 3353N 07700W 7516 02433 9940 +138 //// 105067 068 057 019 01
220830 3355N 07659W 7510 02441 9944 +137 //// 103071 074 057 018 01
220900 3356N 07658W 7518 02433 9948 +134 //// 103071 073 058 016 01
220930 3358N 07657W 7525 02426 9951 +132 //// 099065 067 058 016 01
221000 3359N 07656W 7509 02445 9956 +130 //// 093067 071 057 015 01
221030 3400N 07655W 7526 02432 9956 +135 +139 094069 070 057 016 00
221100 3402N 07654W 7527 02433 9964 +130 //// 093067 068 057 015 01
221130 3403N 07653W 7516 02448 9970 +126 //// 092069 071 057 014 01
221200 3405N 07652W 7517 02450 9974 +125 //// 094072 073 055 016 01
221230 3406N 07651W 7535 02433 9979 +127 +130 093071 072 053 015 00
221300 3408N 07650W 7548 02420 9978 +130 +133 100071 073 053 014 00
221330 3409N 07649W 7526 02447 9984 +126 //// 101071 072 052 014 01
221400 3410N 07648W 7523 02452 9987 +125 //// 100067 069 051 013 01
221430 3412N 07646W 7520 02458 9994 +121 //// 096066 067 050 013 01
221500 3413N 07645W 7533 02445 9996 +122 //// 095066 066 050 012 01
221530 3415N 07644W 7502 02481 9999 +119 //// 095067 067 050 011 01
221600 3416N 07643W 7519 02466 0005 +117 //// 096065 066 049 009 01

[fci]

Yes do not let your guard down.. I went through Wilma in Palm Beach (East coast) Most of S. Florida's attitude was nothing can hurt us coming from the west. I tried in vain to tell them that a storm that large takes a long time to wind down. In fact my neighbor was making fun of me when I was putting up my shutters. A day later he was yelling at me that my roof tiles went through his windows. My wife had to separate me from installing additional wisdom. I am now in Raleigh, NC and have all my preparations ready. Nature is unpredictable, but at least you can be prepared.

Wilma was much stronger than Irene but the transition to Extra-Tropical, I believe; began when she was crossing the Peninsula plus the interaction with the cold front that was coming in at the same time combined to enhance the winds.
Not a ton or rain interestingly.

Irene, IMO; could be transitioning as she moves up to the NE states causing the winds to expand too.
Bottom line, is although this is not the "It Could Happen Tomorrow" storm that some were fearing; you MUST listen to local authorities and take that actions that they recommend. Just don't overreact or panic.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[fci]

I have to say and this is just a feeling not a forecast. But I think CAT 3 before landfall is not out of the question. She is about to be in a area that is prime for her.

I don't think that there is support for the "feeling" that she could be a Cat 3.
Please read the Pro Met's assessments on the strength situation and rely more on their opinions and the NHC than on "feelings".
I think now is the time to put aside "feelings".


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 262228
AF308 2909A IRENE HDOB 25 20110826
221900 3211N 07727W 6965 02824 9631 +138 +071 048052 054 054 004 00
221930 3210N 07725W 6963 02814 9619 +138 +075 047052 052 054 001 00
222000 3209N 07723W 6967 02798 9608 +139 +075 051051 054 054 003 00
222030 3208N 07722W 6959 02800 9600 +138 +076 055047 048 054 004 00
222100 3207N 07720W 6965 02781 9589 +138 +077 059049 049 053 004 03
222130 3206N 07719W 6963 02772 9569 +143 +076 060050 051 052 002 03
222200 3205N 07717W 6966 02761 9552 +150 +076 062048 049 051 001 00
222230 3204N 07716W 6964 02748 9544 +143 +078 059043 046 048 002 03
222300 3202N 07715W 6963 02735 9532 +143 +081 059031 034 046 006 00
222330 3201N 07713W 6965 02726 9520 +144 +084 069020 023 033 001 03
222400 3159N 07712W 6967 02714 9521 +138 +086 080014 014 027 004 03
222430 3158N 07712W 6961 02722 9513 +141 +086 091008 011 023 003 03
222500 3156N 07711W 6965 02712 9507 +145 +086 075002 004 017 003 03
222530 3154N 07711W 6966 02711 9504 +145 +086 286004 005 018 000 00
222600 3152N 07711W 6961 02721 9506 +147 +087 270012 015 016 000 03
222630 3151N 07709W 6971 02704 9502 +149 +089 263019 021 015 002 00
222700 3150N 07708W 6966 02713 9506 +145 +093 259026 028 021 003 00
222730 3148N 07706W 6967 02713 9510 +143 +096 254032 035 030 001 00
222800 3147N 07704W 6962 02730 9518 +142 +098 247040 043 037 003 00
222830 3147N 07704W 6962 02730 9527 +143 +100 239047 049 047 004 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

[Tstormwatcher]

Live 30 frame visible loop, rapid capture: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

Speed it up for full effect. Very interesting to watch what looks to be a fixed feature near the center.

Thanks for that, looks like it took a northeast jog and then back north again. Great loop.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262226
NOAA2 3009A IRENE HDOB 15 20110826
221630 3418N 07642W 7525 02461 0009 +116 //// 098065 066 048 008 01
221700 3419N 07641W 7531 02456 0010 +118 //// 100064 065 047 008 01
221730 3420N 07640W 7533 02456 0009 +121 //// 102063 063 047 007 01
221800 3422N 07639W 7527 02465 0013 +119 //// 103063 063 047 009 01
221830 3423N 07638W 7519 02478 0016 +119 //// 104063 063 047 008 01
221900 3425N 07636W 7525 02474 0017 +121 +125 106062 063 047 009 00
221930 3426N 07635W 7514 02488 0019 +121 +124 107062 063 048 010 00
222000 3428N 07634W 7510 02493 0023 +119 +123 109065 065 048 010 00
222030 3430N 07633W 7503 02506 0029 +118 +119 110066 067 049 011 00
222100 3431N 07632W 7506 02505 0032 +118 +120 108061 063 /// /// 03
222130 3433N 07630W 7508 02505 0033 +119 +120 107055 058 /// /// 03
222200 3434N 07629W 7519 02494 0034 +121 +120 107051 052 /// /// 03
222230 3436N 07628W 7526 02488 0035 +122 +124 107049 049 /// /// 03
222300 3437N 07627W 7520 02496 0034 +124 +126 112049 049 /// /// 03
222330 3439N 07626W 7524 02493 0037 +122 +126 117049 049 /// /// 03
222400 3441N 07624W 7520 02499 0044 +118 +123 114055 055 /// /// 03
222430 3442N 07623W 7518 02504 0045 +119 +120 111056 057 /// /// 03
222500 3444N 07622W 7515 02507 0041 +123 +127 110062 063 /// /// 03
222530 3444N 07620W 7543 02480 0040 +131 +132 102057 061 /// /// 03
222600 3443N 07620W 7541 02482 0038 +129 +133 100051 054 /// /// 03

I can take over NOAA2.

[tolakram]

From the recon thread:



Note how the strongest winds are well away from the center in the NW quadrant.

[Radiogirltx]

Found a cool surfers website. Has very detailed surf reports, as well as some live webcams from around the world....including the east coast.

http://www.surfline.com/surf-cams-and-reports/

[ncweatherwizard]

Irene certainly isn't an impressive hurricane. IR indicates that cloud tops continue to warm, evidence that convection/thunderstorms are weakening. The latest HRD wind analysis shows that there are almost no hurricane-strength winds in the western 1/2 of the circulation:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2011/AL092011/0826/1630/AL092011_0826_1630_contour02.png

Moderate wind shear continues over Irene, and some drier air is evident around and to the W and N of Irene per satellite-estimated precipitable water and water vapor.

Convection may flare-up after sunset in the typical noctural progression, but I continue to say that the wind threat is *not* the primary risk with Irene. Being a very large storm, the surge will be greater-than-normal for only a Cat 1/2 storm. If you are aware from the coast, however, surge shouldn't be a huge problem, though inland flooding from very heavy rainfall may create flash flooding away from the coast.

Since the western hemisphere of Irene continues to be quite weak, I'm not entirely sure how much people who are >20 miles from the coast have to worry. Trees can still be toppled in 50 mph winds if the soil is very wet, and I think that, along with flash flooding, may be the biggest concern from non-coastal people. Depending upon exactly where Irene's center passes, the eastern part of the storm may affect eastern CT/RI/MA, but that's quite a few hours away.

Watching the "omg catastrophe and armageddon only a few hours away!" newscasts are disturbing me since I worry that we'll create complacency for the next storm that comes along if this one is being declared as such an imminent catastrophe (certainly the tone that describes much media reports of Irene) and fails to create such a catastrophe. I certainly do not want a massively devastating result, but the whirlwind of hype that the media has started may be very "dangerous" for future storms if we see anything about utter devastation.

It *is* important to realize that the surge and flooding potential is significant with Irene, so residents along the coast and in low-lying areas need to pay particular attention to Irene! If you are told to evacuate by your local officials, it is very important to do so!

I share your concern about this. While there will be lots of annoyances inland (trees down, power out, etc.), it looks more like the worst damage will be restricted to the coast. I do worry about a sense of complacency setting in for future events, but at least evacuation orders are restricted to low-lying and immediate coastal areas. Many of these areas will get flooded. So while Irene fortunately will not be as bad as it would be if it skirted the entire coast as a major hurricane, we're still going to see some damage. Hopefully then, folks who are evactuated won't feel as if they were fed too much hype.

[jabber]

Yes Wilma was a monster. She had the lowest recorded pressure, so far, in the Atlantic. That cold front did feed. It was a very strange feeling when the eye passed over, it got much cooler. Also made sleeping without power (A/C) much more pleasant.

Yes do not let your guard down.. I went through Wilma in Palm Beach (East coast) Most of S. Florida's attitude was nothing can hurt us coming from the west. I tried in vain to tell them that a storm that large takes a long time to wind down. In fact my neighbor was making fun of me when I was putting up my shutters. A day later he was yelling at me that my roof tiles went through his windows. My wife had to separate me from installing additional wisdom. I am now in Raleigh, NC and have all my preparations ready. Nature is unpredictable, but at least you can be prepared.

Wilma was much stronger than Irene but the transition to Extra-Tropical, I believe; began when she was crossing the Peninsula plus the interaction with the cold front that was coming in at the same time combined to enhance the winds.
Not a ton or rain interestingly.

Irene, IMO; could be transitioning as she moves up to the NE states causing the winds to expand too.
Bottom line, is although this is not the "It Could Happen Tomorrow" storm that some were fearing; you MUST listen to local authorities and take that actions that they recommend. Just don't overreact or panic.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 262238
AF308 2909A IRENE HDOB 26 20110826
222900 3145N 07701W 6970 02734 9537 +142 +101 232053 056 053 004 00
222930 3143N 07659W 6963 02755 9550 +140 +102 227062 067 056 005 00
223000 3142N 07658W 6968 02761 9572 +133 +102 226070 070 056 007 00
223030 3141N 07656W 6956 02787 9582 +134 +100 229070 070 055 006 00
223100 3140N 07655W 6969 02785 9594 +138 +097 225069 070 054 005 00
223130 3139N 07653W 6965 02798 9609 +134 +095 225066 067 053 003 00
223200 3137N 07651W 6965 02810 9620 +134 +095 224066 066 052 002 00
223230 3136N 07650W 6961 02824 9637 +125 +095 224066 066 051 002 00
223300 3135N 07648W 6963 02828 9651 +119 +095 223066 066 050 001 00
223330 3134N 07647W 6959 02839 9655 +122 +094 220067 069 052 002 00
223400 3133N 07645W 6963 02839 9660 +125 +093 219068 068 054 003 00
223430 3132N 07644W 6967 02845 9672 +120 +093 219070 070 055 004 00
223500 3131N 07643W 6963 02856 9682 +119 +091 218070 071 058 004 00
223530 3130N 07641W 6963 02865 9685 +124 +089 219073 076 058 005 00
223600 3128N 07640W 6965 02869 9693 +125 +086 217076 078 057 004 00
223630 3127N 07638W 6966 02868 9700 +123 +084 216080 080 056 002 00
223700 3126N 07637W 6967 02881 9706 +126 +083 217085 087 057 003 00
223730 3125N 07635W 6961 02892 9715 +124 +083 215087 088 055 000 00
223800 3124N 07634W 6964 02896 9725 +123 +084 216085 085 054 002 00
223830 3123N 07633W 6963 02899 9731 +124 +085 216082 082 054 001 00
$$
;

[tolakram]