ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Canelaw99]

How long till recon gets out there?

[Dave]

seems obs were restarted at 01 now. Dave caught it.

It happens Artist, no worries. I'm going to need someone to break me around 215 - 230 pm edt. Prior committment.

[crimi481]

Not seeing any northerly motion - in this S. Fla Radra loop
http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/ ... %20loop%29

[Kohlecane]

What's that BAMM doing......

It's not letting Emily get out of here that easily...

haha that is interesting, was thinking the same thing.

[SouthDadeFish]

Latest visible image:


I'm pretty sure that hollow spot SE of Grand Bahama is the center...

[Countrygirl911]

Looks like we have 3 tropical waves behind emily 2 of which looks like they could develop if the conditions are good

[Dave]

[artist]

seems obs were restarted at 01 now. Dave caught it.

It happens Artist, no worries. I'm going to need someone to break me around 215 - 230 pm edt. Prior committment.

got it!

[Blown Away]

In Hobe Sound it was clear blue this morning, now I can see very whispy high clouds move through.

This reminds me of Tropical Storm Jerry.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Jerry_(1995)

[Dave]

I believe the center fix is at or near 1400 hrs (2 pm edt).

[HurricaneBelle]

For everyone who joked about the safest place to be being wherever the 5-day NHC position is, note that Emily today is pretty much where she was progged to be from the beginning, around 79W off the SE Florida coast.

[Shuriken]

Where are the biggest pressure-falls currently?

(Is it too early to mention the K-word? She went 90-degrees left of track projections in this vicinity; and I'm curious if a paper has ever been written explaining it.)

[Dave]

787
URNT15 KNHC 061716
AF307 1405A INVEST HDOB 04 20110806
170630 2830N 08725W 4462 06810 0404 -104 -195 136013 013 /// /// 03
170700 2829N 08722W 4461 06808 0403 -105 -195 135012 013 /// /// 03
170730 2828N 08719W 4464 06803 0403 -106 -199 132011 011 /// /// 03
170800 2828N 08716W 4463 06806 0405 -105 -200 127012 013 /// /// 03
170830 2827N 08713W 4462 06810 0405 -104 -190 130014 014 /// /// 03
170900 2826N 08710W 4463 06806 0405 -104 -203 132015 016 /// /// 03
170930 2825N 08707W 4464 06805 0406 -105 -187 131014 015 /// /// 03
171000 2825N 08704W 4462 06809 0407 -104 -196 129014 015 /// /// 03
171030 2824N 08701W 4464 06806 0406 -102 -209 133015 015 /// /// 03
171100 2823N 08659W 4466 06802 0405 -101 -205 133015 015 /// /// 03
171130 2822N 08656W 4463 06805 0404 -107 -192 132013 014 /// /// 03
171200 2822N 08653W 4465 06800 0404 -096 -175 144015 016 /// /// 03
171230 2821N 08650W 4463 06805 0404 -102 -162 143012 013 /// /// 03
171300 2820N 08647W 4462 06806 0404 -102 -175 136012 014 /// /// 03
171330 2819N 08644W 4466 06801 0404 -104 -207 131013 014 /// /// 03
171400 2819N 08641W 4464 06801 0405 -106 -189 128014 014 /// /// 03
171430 2818N 08638W 4464 06805 0405 -105 -202 132012 013 /// /// 03
171500 2817N 08636W 4463 06809 0407 -105 -198 131013 014 /// /// 03
171530 2816N 08633W 4464 06807 0407 -105 -186 128013 013 /// /// 03
171600 2815N 08630W 4464 06806 0407 -105 -190 130012 012 /// /// 03
$$
;

[mutley]

Been watching the radar, and that is a very consistent blob of showers. Lots of rotation in it too. If it could just get more symmetrical and stacked better, wouldn't this be a great place for rapid strengthening? Especially since it's close to or over the gulf stream?

[Blown Away]

For everyone who joked about the safest place to be being wherever the 5-day NHC position is, note that Emily today is pretty much where she was progged to be from the beginning, around 79W off the SE Florida coast.

I know they are very good at predicting the track! Intensity is tricky, but it's hard to predict if a storm will miss the big mountains, because a few miles can make or break as we saw with Emily.

[SouthDadeFish]

Almost looks like an eye-like feature on radar. Clear spot with storms rotating around the center....

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... tning=Hide

[Kohlecane]

For everyone who joked about the safest place to be being wherever the 5-day NHC position is, note that Emily today is pretty much where she was progged to be from the beginning, around 79W off the SE Florida coast.

this is very true, good observation

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm thinking percentage will go up at 2pm TWO. I'm guessing 80-90%

[northjaxpro]

Latest visible image:


I'm pretty sure that hollow spot SE of Grand Bahama is the center...

Right on the mark SouthDadeFish. It has been a very slow drift N all morning long. But, that is approximately where the center is at this time.

It probably wont really begin to really spin-up until it makes the move NE out to sea beginning tonight into Sunday.

[artist]

Poll time - will they find a closed low or not?