ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[South Texas Storms]

18z GFS shifted much further south. Might not even get up to central MX on this run.

[Jevo]

18Z gfs +72

[Jevo]

18Z gfs +84 (Into Mexico)

Gone @ +96

[SunnyThoughts]

Rock, if you haven't seen it, you should check out Jeff Masters' account of his flight into Hurricane Hugo.

I have read that. Sounds like fun! While of course extremely scary. I am glad they all made it out alive. Has there ever been any fatalities on hurricane hunter planes?

The only Atlantic Hurricane Hunter flight to go down occurred on September 26, 1955. Snowcloud Five, a U.S. Navy P2V Neptune weather reconnaissance airplane flying out of Guantanamo, Cuba, was lost in Hurricane Janet, 300 miles southwest of Jamaica. Snowcloud Five was part of the Airborne Early Warning Squadron Four (VW-4), based at the Jacksonville, Florida Naval Air Station. Carrying a crew of nine and two reporters from the Toronto Daily Star, Snowcloud Five took off at 0630 local time, and performed its initial penetration into Janet at an altitude of 700 feet. At the time of the crash, Janet was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. The aircraft sent back this transmission, then was never heard from again:


LINK TO ARTICLE: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/hunter4.asp

[KWT]

Well NHC now forecasting Nate to reach category-2, hard to ignore that possiblity given its not that far from being a hurricane right now!

[Dave]

Nothing in since hdobs 34 from earlier so here's the next mission for tonight/early morning:

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 77....(ADDED)
A. 09/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0415A NATE
C. 09/0330Z
D. 20.4N 92.1W
E. 09/0530Z TO 09/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[HurricaneRobert]

One place we know it is not going - Texas.

[HouTXmetro]

Ok, so what does the EURO ensembles look like?

[tropicwatch]

[quote="Jevo"]18Z gfs +84 (Into Mexico)

Gone @ +96

Not buying it.

[Jevo]

18Z gfs +84 (Into Mexico)

Gone @ +96

Not buying it.

I dunno GFS was the oultier going N... now there is some consensus with the globals

[tropicwatch]

Nice infared loop showing Katia, Maria and Nate.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

Tropicwatch

[PauleinHouston]

One place we know it is not going - Texas.

I'll respectfully disagree with you. The longer Nate sits and meanders (if it sits around) with little in the way of steering influences, the greater the chance for pattern changes to affect the landfall point. While Mexico sure seems a likely target, I still feel there's enough disagreement not to rule out any point in Texas.

[psyclone]

18Z gfs +84 (Into Mexico)

Gone @ +96

Not buying it.

that's not an uncommon track for storms in the BOC. a slow motion west or west southwest is a reasonable solution and wouldn't be a surprise, especially when considering the storm's very low latitude.

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Ensembles are in pretty good agreement thru 72hr placing Nate anywhere from Tampico to about 100 Miles North of Tampico. IMO the Northern Gulf Coast is out of the woods..

[wxman57]

Finally, a GFS run that makes more sense. If Nate was going north, it wouldn't have been drifting south since yesterday.

[wxman57]

And I don't think Nate is going to Texas, either. The longer Nate sits there, the more time for the ridge to rebuild to its north across Texas and Louisiana. Models are coming into very good agreement now in a track west into Mexico, which is the most common track for storms that far south in the BoC. We're not going to see any steering currents that could take Nate toward Texas in the coming week. That ridge will be quite strong over us by Sunday.

I do think the NHC's track is not likely to materialize. Their track is between what were a couple of possibilities and pretty much guaranteed to be wrong. There's nothing to indicate Nate will move only 30 miles per day on Sun, Mon and Tue. They'll be shifting their track westward in the coming advisories.

[Over my head]

One place we know it is not going - Texas.

I'll respectfully disagree with you. The longer Nate sits and meanders (if it sits around) with little in the way of steering influences, the greater the chance for pattern changes to affect the landfall point. While Mexico sure seems a likely target, I still feel there's enough disagreement not to rule out any point in Texas.

It could do like Lee did and splash all over us in Southeast Texas while not really being in Texas. Nate instead of Louisiana as his border uses Mexico and maybe Brownsville and south Texas could get some rain. Optimistically....

[wxman57]

Nate could easily go inland well south of 21N, where not a molecule of moisture will reach us in Texas.

[Over my head]

Nate could easily go inland well south of 21N, where not a molecule of moisture will reach us in Texas.

boooooo! hisss ! Pop my balloon!

[PauleinHouston]

Nate could easily go inland well south of 21N, where not a molecule of moisture will reach us in Texas.

And you're probably right wxman. You've nailed it pretty well as usual and I'm learning from everyone Off topic, any sign of the death ridge (and indeed it's namesake is proper now with the loss of life from the fires) weakening/retreating/pattern change that gets us out of this drought? Tropical systems into Texas at all this season looking more and more bleak, so we're waiting for frontal systems to bring us some rainfall relief.