ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Janie2006]

NWS radar places the eye about 110 miles south of Morehead City.

[Dave]

Go for it tonight Annie and Snoop your doing a great job....see you can do graphics! Thanks!

Greenwinds this area is mainly for work details, flight times, etc. If you or anyone does have a specific question they may post it in here and someone I'm sure will answer it but it may take awhile to get an answer. When our teams are on recon they are pulling data & pictures as fast as possible and don't have time to do a play by play analysis of each set of hdobs. The best answer would be to post the question on the regular discussion thread where someone will see it right away and can help immediately. Have a great night and stay safe!

For me...I've been on Recon for over 117 hrs since last Sunday and I am going to sleep. G'night world...take care and stay safe!

[ConvergenceZone]

The media hype surrounding Irene is ridiculous. Yes it is unusual, but most likely when Irene reaches the north east it will be as a TS at most, with some gusts. A bit of common sense and everything will be allright. Amazingly we have a monster of a typhoon here with 120 knots sustained winds (hopefully moving towards Taiwan) and yet not a word on the press....

I'm not downplaying Irene at all, but you can take almost every hurricane(except katrina) and the hype has always been much worse than the storm turned out to be.
It happens all the time. That's the media for you.....

[supercane]

Thanks for all the hard work, Dave!

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 270502
AF306 3109A IRENE HDOB 12 20110827
045300 3036N 08019W 3443 08667 0439 -215 -260 270023 023 022 001 00
045330 3037N 08016W 3443 08666 0436 -214 -260 270024 024 023 001 00
045400 3038N 08013W 3443 08665 0436 -210 -259 262026 026 022 001 00
045430 3039N 08010W 3442 08666 0436 -211 -257 261026 026 022 001 00
045500 3040N 08007W 3443 08662 0438 -210 -255 259028 029 022 002 00
045530 3042N 08004W 3544 08457 0430 -196 -253 267028 029 026 000 00
045600 3043N 08001W 3649 08240 0413 -179 -249 276028 029 027 001 00
045630 3044N 07957W 3738 08060 0400 -178 -246 287031 032 027 000 00
045700 3045N 07954W 3816 07904 0388 -167 -243 286032 033 029 001 00
045730 3046N 07951W 3898 07744 0378 -156 -242 286032 033 029 001 00
045800 3047N 07948W 3999 07546 0359 -138 -242 285032 032 029 001 00
045830 3048N 07944W 4127 07304 0338 -125 -238 288031 032 029 001 00
045900 3049N 07941W 4260 07061 0321 -113 -233 292032 034 031 000 00
045930 3050N 07938W 4383 06840 0304 -094 -225 299032 033 030 001 00
050000 3051N 07935W 4469 06686 0291 -085 -214 309034 035 031 001 00
050030 3052N 07932W 4579 06492 0274 -084 -203 310036 037 031 001 00
050100 3053N 07929W 4683 06315 0263 -078 -192 310037 038 032 002 00
050130 3054N 07926W 4784 06151 0252 -065 -182 310037 038 030 002 00
050200 3055N 07924W 4910 05946 0240 -051 -172 313038 038 031 002 00
050230 3056N 07922W 5019 05770 0224 -038 -160 312039 039 031 001 00
$$
;

[fci]

The media hype surrounding Irene is ridiculous. Yes it is unusual, but most likely when Irene reaches the north east it will be as a TS at most, with some gusts. A bit of common sense and everything will be allright. Amazingly we have a monster of a typhoon here with 120 knots sustained winds (hopefully moving towards Taiwan) and yet not a word on the press....

I'm not downplaying Irene at all, but you can take almost every hurricane(except katrina) and the hype has always been much worse than the storm turned out to be.
It happens all the time. That's the media for you.....

Not in the business of agreeing with the media but they jump on the storms because it gets ratings plus the time they downplay a storm and they are wrong, they get pounded for not informing.
The "It could happen tomorrow" type armageddon scenarios are what aggravated me with Irene.

[CrazyC83]

Question about winds and wind gusts: 850mb winds sometimes can come down in peak wind gusts correct? 925mb winds are normally gusts?

[Jevo]

Based on my extropoliation using GRLevel3 ... which at this distance isnt an exact science I show the storm moving 35nm @ 008 degrees from 11:30pm - 1:00am

[psyclone]

The media hype surrounding Irene is ridiculous. Yes it is unusual, but most likely when Irene reaches the north east it will be as a TS at most, with some gusts. A bit of common sense and everything will be allright. Amazingly we have a monster of a typhoon here with 120 knots sustained winds (hopefully moving towards Taiwan) and yet not a word on the press....

I'm not downplaying Irene at all, but you can take almost every hurricane(except katrina) and the hype has always been much worse than the storm turned out to be.
It happens all the time. That's the media for you.....

you really do need to use common sense. if you're in a sturdy structure out of a flood zone you've stacked the odds dramatically in your favor.

[CronkPSU]

The media hype surrounding Irene is ridiculous. Yes it is unusual, but most likely when Irene reaches the north east it will be as a TS at most, with some gusts. A bit of common sense and everything will be allright. Amazingly we have a monster of a typhoon here with 120 knots sustained winds (hopefully moving towards Taiwan) and yet not a word on the press....

I'm not downplaying Irene at all, but you can take almost every hurricane(except katrina) and the hype has always been much worse than the storm turned out to be.
It happens all the time. That's the media for you.....

Charley says hi!

[CrazyC83]

The media hype surrounding Irene is ridiculous. Yes it is unusual, but most likely when Irene reaches the north east it will be as a TS at most, with some gusts. A bit of common sense and everything will be allright. Amazingly we have a monster of a typhoon here with 120 knots sustained winds (hopefully moving towards Taiwan) and yet not a word on the press....

I'm not downplaying Irene at all, but you can take almost every hurricane(except katrina) and the hype has always been much worse than the storm turned out to be.
It happens all the time. That's the media for you.....

Charley says hi!

Charley was an exceptional case, a storm that bombed ahead of landfall. Irene is not bombing, and few other storms of the past have before landfall.

[Jevo]

so even though its Dark.. pretty cool streaming cam in Nags head

http://www.visitob.com/outer_banks/trip ... bcams.htm#

[supercane]

Latest HRD wind analysis:


Latest NC obs from 1AM Wilmington regional weather roundup:

Code: Select all

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS 
WILMINGTON     HVY RAIN  75  73  94 N22G36    29.22F FOG               
SOUTHPORT      HVY RAIN  72  72 100 N15G35    29.18F                   
N MYRTLE BEACH   N/A    N/A N/A N/A MISG      29.32F                   
MYRTLE BEACH   NOT AVBL                                                 
CAPE HATTERAS  LGT RAIN  82  76  81 E31G53    29.49F                   
JACKSONVILLE   CLOUDY    75  73  94 NE20G31   29.37F                   
MOREHEAD CITY  LGT RAIN  81  75  83 E23G53    29.28F FOG               
KENANSVILLE    HVY RAIN  66  66 100 N23G40    29.45F                   
NEW BERN       RAIN      77  76  96 NE23G36   29.41F FOG               
ELIZABETH CITY LGT RAIN  78  76  93 NE29G36   29.66F FOG               
CHARLESTON     CLOUDY    80  70  71 NW25G33   29.54S                   
BEAUFORT MCAS  CLOUDY    81  68  64 W14       29.63S                   
HILTON HEAD    NOT AVBL                                                 


[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 270512
AF306 3109A IRENE HDOB 13 20110827
050300 3057N 07919W 5126 05601 0212 -045 -150 307038 039 031 001 00
050330 3057N 07917W 5223 05451 0202 -034 -138 307040 041 /// /// 03
050400 3059N 07915W 5329 05290 0190 -028 -129 304041 041 032 001 00
050430 3100N 07914W 5422 05151 0181 -017 -119 304041 042 034 002 00
050500 3102N 07912W 5508 05022 9989 -014 -111 301040 040 034 001 00
050530 3103N 07910W 5555 04954 9988 -008 -105 301043 046 034 003 00
050600 3105N 07908W 5594 04893 9971 -000 -099 306044 045 038 001 00
050630 3106N 07907W 5637 04830 9971 +002 -094 307042 043 038 003 00
050700 3108N 07905W 5683 04764 9977 +003 -089 306042 043 038 002 00
050730 3109N 07903W 5761 04652 9997 -000 -085 297045 047 039 002 00
050800 3111N 07902W 5839 04543 0002 +000 -080 296048 049 039 002 00
050830 3112N 07900W 5890 04470 0002 +005 -076 300049 049 039 003 00
050900 3113N 07858W 5935 04409 0004 +005 -072 302050 052 039 002 00
050930 3115N 07857W 5984 04337 0003 +009 -068 306052 053 038 003 00
051000 3116N 07855W 6020 04292 0000 +016 -064 304051 052 040 002 00
051030 3118N 07854W 6083 04206 9992 +025 -061 304049 050 039 002 00
051100 3119N 07852W 6148 04114 9987 +028 -057 308048 048 041 003 00
051130 3120N 07850W 6177 04073 9983 +030 -053 316050 050 041 003 00
051200 3122N 07849W 6219 04017 9985 +034 -050 315050 050 041 003 00
051230 3123N 07847W 6282 03937 9985 +037 -047 315050 051 043 002 00
$$
;

[psyclone]

charley was also a bullet. more like a 10 mile wide tornado than a hurricane.. with no meaningful surge. unless you were in the direct path you got nothing. irene is constructed much differently...a much less intense but much larger swath. a whole different beast. come to think of it, it is amazing to think about how different tropical cyclones often are. that's why we need to evaluate each storm as it threatens a given area and be willing to adjust preparations and evac procedures.

[pkstinn]

HarryCane and ConvergenceZone, FWIW, my family watched Ike terrorize and demolish our homes as the press, the weather reports, and the locals downplayed the potential death/destruction of that storm. The press, your gov't emergency ops are doing a great job of disseminating real data and potential of Irene. Halleluia if she doesn't impress you with violent weather--but best to keep vigilance until your coasts are clear of this storm don't you think?!

[PTPatrick]

Look, it drives me crazy too, but the reality is, 24 hours ago there seemed a very real threat of a cat 3 storm surge coming into the new york metro, not to mention a potential cat 4. I hate the hype, but you do sort of have to over-warn. I think New York is handling things quite well. The news is going to do their stand in the wind with an anemometer and wade in water bits, and so be it. But I cant fault them for warning people of the potential that this thing had until this afteernoon. That one Euro model yesterday did paint the doomsday scenario for NYC so they werent getting it from nowhere. Once it weakens you have to hedge...you cant tell people, oh its just a cat 1. They would be flocking to the beaches and trying to drive around and doing stupid stuff.

I will never forget the chilling statement out of New Orleans the day before Katrina. I dont recall anybody saying it was hype or scare tactics, despite the fact that it it read like a disaster movie script. And honestly at the time I thought, nah, aint gonna happen, and we know how that turned out.
Also, this thing is a big storm and will give the coastal northeast its worst hit since Gloria, and will most definatly be worse and more widespread do to its larger size. Most coverage I have seen on the news as been sober, informative, and accurate with the occassional "this could still restrengthen" comment.

Anyway, I end up turning off the coverage. I use watch the people standing on the beaches leaning into the wind on the news...now they just annoy me and I try to watch other stuff.

[ConvergenceZone]

so even though its Dark.. pretty cool streaming cam in Nags head

http://www.visitob.com/outer_banks/trip ... bcams.htm#

Some of those cams will be interesting to check out tomorrow morning once it's light out and the cane is making landfall... I book-marked the page for morning.

[psyclone]

HarryCane and ConvergenceZone, FWIW, my family watched Ike terrorize and demolish our homes as the press, the weather reports, and the locals downplayed the potential death/destruction of that storm. The press, your gov't emergency ops are doing a great job of disseminating real data and potential of Irene. Halleluia if she doesn't impress you with violent weather--but best to keep vigilance until your coasts are clear of this storm don't you think?!

that's fair but they're making a valid point if coverage was depicting a long island express repeat or some other worse than likely scenario. it just seems facts and logic are often mia during these events. you either have folks laughing it off and choosing to remain in surge prone areas or you have unreasonable hyping.

[ConvergenceZone]

HarryCane and ConvergenceZone, FWIW, my family watched Ike terrorize and demolish our homes as the press, the weather reports, and the locals downplayed the potential death/destruction of that storm. The press, your gov't emergency ops are doing a great job of disseminating real data and potential of Irene. Halleluia if she doesn't impress you with violent weather--but best to keep vigilance until your coasts are clear of this storm don't you think?!

I guess I'm just saying that when the media gets the hold of a storm, they make it sound like Armageddon of the worst kind is coming....

With that said, I know it totally sucks when you lose your home, as that's what happened to my Aunt in Katrina... Thankfully she's alive though, which is what mattered to us. We got her back on her feet...