ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[weatherSnoop]

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[Annie Oakley]

Goodnight Dave. See you tomorrow..get some rest. You sure deserve it. Thanks for your hard work.

[Hurricaneman]

I think a storm Irene reminds me of is Gloria, hyped to the gills, similar intensity into North Carolina, and probably end up as a hurricane into long island

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 270522
AF306 3109A IRENE HDOB 14 20110827
051300 3124N 07846W 6328 03872 9982 +040 -044 312051 051 042 002 00
051330 3126N 07844W 6341 03853 9983 +040 -041 311050 050 043 003 00
051400 3127N 07843W 6335 03857 9978 +039 -039 309051 053 043 003 00
051430 3128N 07841W 6351 03835 9978 +040 -036 309053 054 042 002 00
051500 3130N 07840W 6398 03773 9971 +047 -034 314055 057 042 002 00
051530 3131N 07838W 6461 03690 9966 +053 -030 315058 058 042 001 00
051600 3132N 07837W 6521 03612 9959 +062 -026 315059 060 043 004 00
051630 3133N 07836W 6591 03521 9954 +068 -024 313060 060 043 001 00
051700 3135N 07834W 6674 03417 9948 +076 -021 314060 061 043 003 00
051730 3136N 07833W 6744 03330 9945 +083 -018 313062 063 044 001 00
051800 3137N 07831W 6825 03227 9944 +087 -015 314059 060 044 003 00
051830 3138N 07830W 6893 03141 9936 +096 -011 313060 060 046 002 00
051900 3140N 07828W 6950 03068 9928 +103 -006 313061 062 046 004 00
051930 3141N 07827W 6970 03040 9922 +104 -001 313061 062 048 004 00
052000 3142N 07825W 6963 03045 9919 +101 +001 312057 059 046 005 00
052030 3143N 07824W 6967 03037 9916 +102 +003 310053 053 045 004 00
052100 3145N 07823W 6969 03034 9913 +105 +006 308052 052 046 004 00
052130 3146N 07821W 6965 03039 9912 +103 +008 306052 052 046 003 00
052200 3147N 07820W 6970 03029 9910 +103 +011 309051 051 046 003 00
052230 3148N 07818W 6963 03034 9908 +102 +013 310050 051 046 003 00
$$
;

[weatherSnoop]

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[Sanibel]

The convection looks like a veer right but the radar track is still mainly N.

[Jevo]

Media Hype....



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Truth



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Fresh projections of possible NYC surge from MIT team. Up to 3 meters possible — distribution of runs, height in meters. Thats 10 feet of water rolling into Battery Park

Source: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/ ... ff-charts/

[funster]

The media probably saved a lot of lives by helping get people out of the way of Hurricane Irene. Irene does still have a 5.0 out of 6 on the destructive potential rating for surge - similar to Ike - and will probably cause a lot of destruction along the mid-atlantic/long island coast
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... /wind.html

Even if it weakens to a TS the surge will still be very high.

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 270532
AF306 3109A IRENE HDOB 15 20110827
052300 3150N 07816W 6963 03031 9902 +103 +013 307052 053 047 005 03
052330 3150N 07814W 6971 03020 9895 +109 +014 306051 052 047 005 00
052400 3151N 07812W 6962 03029 9896 +105 +016 303050 050 045 003 00
052430 3152N 07810W 6971 03018 9900 +100 +017 300047 048 046 003 00
052500 3153N 07808W 6966 03023 9897 +100 +019 299047 048 046 004 00
052530 3154N 07806W 6966 03019 9897 +099 +021 298048 049 045 004 00
052600 3155N 07804W 6967 03016 9893 +100 +022 300050 051 044 003 00
052630 3155N 07801W 6970 03007 9890 +099 +024 300051 051 044 004 00
052700 3156N 07759W 6966 03013 9885 +104 +024 299050 050 045 004 00
052730 3157N 07757W 6962 03014 9882 +103 +024 298050 051 044 003 03
052800 3159N 07756W 6973 03002 9878 +105 +024 299052 053 047 003 00
052830 3200N 07754W 6963 03007 9870 +108 +025 300054 055 047 002 00
052900 3201N 07753W 6967 03002 9868 +109 +026 300056 057 045 002 00
052930 3203N 07751W 6966 03000 9865 +109 +027 295054 055 045 002 00
053000 3204N 07750W 6970 02994 9867 +104 +029 295055 056 046 002 00
053030 3205N 07748W 6969 02992 9861 +105 +029 295054 055 047 002 00
053100 3207N 07746W 6967 02992 9860 +105 +030 294051 052 045 002 00
053130 3208N 07745W 6965 02991 9858 +103 +031 293053 054 046 002 00
053200 3209N 07743W 6970 02983 9860 +100 +032 291054 055 047 002 00
053230 3211N 07742W 6966 02988 9846 +109 +031 290054 055 048 002 00
$$
;

[funster]

Media Hype....



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Truth



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Fresh projections of possible NYC surge from MIT team. Up to 3 meters possible — distribution of runs, height in meters. Thats 10 feet of water rolling into Battery Park

Source: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/ ... ff-charts/

The top image is Hollywood hype and the chart is from the New York Times (aka the media)

[PTPatrick]

I think a storm Irene reminds me of is Gloria, hyped to the gills, similar intensity into North Carolina, and probably end up as a hurricane into long island

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I think for the Northeast this will be worse than Gloria. Bigger in size, bigger surge, and prolly directly over NYC vs hair east will will make for worse surge there as well. Also will be way wetter and slower moving.

Gloria= smaller, further east landfall (most likely), worst effects centeral long island east, hit at low tide lopsided with worst weather on the east side
Irene= BIG, slow, further west most likely, will be slow enough to concur with higher tides

This looks more like Carol to me.

[Ptarmigan]

I rather have people be safe than sorry. Irene is a large storm like Katrina or Ike.

[Jevo]

The top image is Hollywood hype and the chart is from the New York Times (aka the media)

Heh.. bottom chart is from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology...

[weatherSnoop]

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sorry I cannot provide sat images in the backround

[Jevo]

Looking at the current motion on GRLevel3 ... I say she clips the OBX.. East of Okracoke

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 270542
AF306 3109A IRENE HDOB 16 20110827
053300 3212N 07740W 6967 02983 9842 +111 +031 290055 055 048 000 00
053330 3214N 07738W 6966 02982 9833 +116 +032 291056 056 049 001 00
053400 3215N 07737W 6966 02979 9830 +116 +032 289056 057 050 001 00
053430 3216N 07735W 6966 02974 9828 +116 +032 291053 054 051 000 00
053500 3218N 07734W 6966 02969 9819 +118 +032 294052 053 051 000 03
053530 3219N 07732W 6967 02965 9814 +119 +032 293055 056 053 000 00
053600 3220N 07731W 6969 02961 9813 +119 +034 291054 056 052 001 00
053630 3222N 07729W 6970 02955 9806 +119 +036 294053 054 052 001 03
053700 3223N 07727W 6966 02956 9796 +125 +038 293052 052 054 001 00
053730 3225N 07726W 6966 02955 9789 +129 +039 293051 052 054 000 03
053800 3226N 07724W 6965 02949 9780 +132 +042 294051 052 053 001 00
053830 3227N 07723W 6970 02940 9774 +133 +043 293053 053 053 000 00
053900 3229N 07721W 6966 02939 9763 +137 +045 293053 054 051 001 00
053930 3230N 07719W 6967 02933 9754 +140 +046 293054 055 049 002 00
054000 3231N 07718W 6967 02929 9753 +138 +047 293054 056 047 001 03
054030 3233N 07716W 6963 02930 9749 +138 +048 292054 054 047 000 03
054100 3234N 07715W 6971 02917 9743 +140 +049 293053 054 046 002 00
054130 3235N 07713W 6964 02921 9744 +135 +050 293054 055 046 000 00
054200 3237N 07711W 6970 02911 9739 +136 +051 291055 055 046 001 03
054230 3238N 07710W 6965 02913 9731 +139 +051 291054 054 045 002 00
$$
;

[HurricaneBill]

Another storm that exceeded the hype was Wilma. Wasn't Wilma expected to only strengthen slightly over the Gulf and then get hit by shear and dry air before landfall on Florida as a Category 1?

[Dave]

Yes I was actually laying down and right before I dropped off into coma land I thought of this...here's a link to a guide that shows/teaches a person how to read the hdobs that we post on the main recon area. It breaks down each category/number and will show a person what they will be looking at on a hdobs data set.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouthdobs_2007.shtml

Also if one watches the regulars who do the recon work on a regular basis, they may see them post the lowest pressure or highest wind speed be it flight level or sfmr or both at the bottom of that particular set of hdobs or highlight the numbers in red or blue in the actual report. So read the info contained on the link above and watch us who work the recon missions, you may learn more than you'd believe...that's how I learned how to do recon missions in the first place...by watching others work recon and reading the information from the NHC.

Now..back into my coma....again.

[ConvergenceZone]

The media probably saved a lot of lives by helping get people out of the way of Hurricane Irene. Irene does still have a 5.0 out of 6 on the destructive potential rating for surge - similar to Ike - and will probably cause a lot of destruction along the mid-atlantic/long island coast
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... /wind.html

Even if it weakens to a TS the surge will still be very high.

You make a valid point, and I'm not saying that the media should give less hype, just stating a fact. In a sense, the hype is very good for the reason you mentioned. Perhaps if they downplayed Irene, people wouldn't take it seriously, so perhaps this is a way to get the to move out of dodge...

[weatherSnoop]

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