ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250501
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 15 20111025
045130 2126N 08558W 3978 07627 0404 -180 //// 178007 008 030 000 01
045200 2123N 08557W 3978 07629 0404 -180 //// 184008 008 030 000 01
045230 2121N 08556W 3978 07627 0404 -180 //// 199008 008 030 000 01
045300 2119N 08555W 3978 07627 0402 -180 //// 201007 007 029 000 01
045330 2117N 08554W 3978 07625 0402 -180 //// 192007 008 030 000 01
045400 2114N 08553W 3978 07624 0401 -180 //// 189007 007 030 001 01
045430 2112N 08552W 3978 07624 0400 -180 //// 194005 005 030 000 01
045500 2110N 08550W 3978 07624 0400 -180 //// 192006 007 030 000 01
045530 2108N 08549W 3976 07627 0401 -180 //// 186007 007 030 000 01
045600 2106N 08548W 3978 07624 0401 -180 //// 188007 007 030 001 01
045630 2103N 08547W 3976 07625 0401 -180 //// 197006 006 029 001 01
045700 2101N 08546W 3978 07624 0401 -180 //// 211007 008 030 000 01
045730 2059N 08545W 3978 07625 0402 -180 //// 221007 007 030 000 01
045800 2057N 08544W 3978 07627 0402 -180 //// 227007 007 029 001 01
045830 2054N 08542W 3978 07627 0403 -180 //// 229006 006 029 001 01
045900 2052N 08541W 3978 07627 0404 -179 //// 234006 006 030 001 01
045930 2050N 08540W 3977 07629 0404 -176 //// 238005 006 030 001 01
050000 2047N 08539W 3978 07629 0406 -175 //// 244005 006 029 001 01
050030 2045N 08538W 3978 07629 0407 -175 //// 245004 005 031 000 01
050100 2043N 08537W 3978 07633 0409 -175 //// 247003 003 030 001 01
$$
;

[boca]

This one boca?

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... plots.html

Thanks Jeremy it was wierd it worked then this morning it didn't so thank you.

[Dave]

[SFLcane]

Is their something wrong with the spaghetti model page? If not I need a new link please.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250511
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 16 20111025
050130 2041N 08535W 3978 07634 0409 -175 //// 261004 004 030 000 01
050200 2038N 08534W 3978 07634 0410 -175 //// 263004 004 029 000 01
050230 2036N 08533W 4019 07568 0411 -170 //// 244005 005 029 001 01
050300 2034N 08532W 4123 07368 0399 -155 //// 224007 008 030 000 01
050330 2031N 08531W 4206 07218 0391 -145 //// 219009 010 031 001 01
050400 2029N 08529W 4322 07012 0381 -129 //// 220010 010 032 000 01
050430 2026N 08528W 4418 06845 0371 -123 //// 248010 011 033 001 01
050500 2024N 08527W 4510 06696 0364 -118 //// 269008 012 033 001 01
050530 2021N 08526W 4618 06515 0359 -109 //// 304001 003 032 000 01
050600 2019N 08524W 4754 06294 0346 -091 //// 081004 005 032 000 01
050630 2017N 08523W 4895 06066 0332 -075 //// 040005 005 032 001 01
050700 2014N 08522W 5040 05837 0319 -058 //// 040007 009 033 000 01
050730 2012N 08521W 5184 05609 0304 -040 //// 036009 010 033 000 01
050800 2009N 08519W 5325 05398 0292 -024 //// 056010 010 032 000 01
050830 2007N 08518W 5463 05195 0281 -015 //// 079011 012 032 000 01
050900 2005N 08517W 5598 05001 //// -010 //// 085012 013 032 001 01
050930 2002N 08516W 5731 04812 //// -007 //// 103014 015 033 000 01
051000 2000N 08514W 5864 04609 //// -004 //// 111013 014 032 000 01
051030 1958N 08513W 6002 04447 //// +007 //// 112014 015 034 000 01
051100 1956N 08512W 6151 04248 //// +009 //// 107015 015 034 000 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[boca]

I don't see the sharp east turn that the NHC has I guess they feel that the trough will be strong enough to induce an eastward motion.I find it odd because if the trough isn't deep enough than Florida would have to worry.My gut says Wilma path due to the high retreating into the Atlantic and the cold front entering Florida.

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250521
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 17 20111025
051130 1954N 08511W 6324 04021 //// +023 //// 099014 015 034 000 01
051200 1952N 08510W 6494 03803 //// +033 //// 087011 012 034 000 01
051230 1950N 08509W 6676 03570 //// +049 //// 069012 012 033 002 01
051300 1948N 08508W 6856 03353 //// +065 //// 053011 013 034 000 01
051330 1946N 08507W 6951 03238 //// +075 //// 040010 011 032 001 01
051400 1944N 08506W 6971 03215 //// +079 //// 043012 012 033 001 01
051430 1942N 08504W 6963 03221 //// +077 //// 045012 013 033 000 01
051500 1939N 08503W 6970 03212 //// +079 //// 046013 014 033 000 01
051530 1937N 08502W 6967 03217 //// +078 //// 054012 013 034 001 01
051600 1935N 08501W 6967 03219 //// +075 //// 059012 012 033 000 05
051630 1933N 08501W 6965 03218 //// +074 //// 054014 015 034 000 05
051700 1931N 08501W 6969 03216 //// +073 //// 056015 016 035 000 01
051730 1928N 08501W 6964 03219 //// +075 //// 065015 015 035 000 05
051800 1926N 08501W 6969 03209 //// +073 //// 059015 015 035 001 01
051830 1924N 08501W 6965 03215 //// +070 //// 058015 015 034 001 01
051900 1921N 08502W 6971 03207 //// +070 //// 051016 016 034 001 01
051930 1919N 08502W 6967 03210 //// +070 //// 055017 017 035 001 01
052000 1917N 08502W 6967 03211 //// +069 //// 052017 017 035 001 01
052030 1914N 08502W 6965 03216 //// +070 //// 055016 017 035 000 01
052100 1912N 08502W 6967 03210 //// +072 //// 055016 016 035 001 01
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

Big HRWF change. Loops south rather than heading towards SFL now.

[Dave]

[SFLcane]

Big HRWF change. Loops south rather than heading towards SFL now.

Not that the horrid model has any skill but just curious...Link?

[boca]

I don't see the sharp east turn that the NHC has I guess they feel that the trough will be strong enough to induce an eastward motion.I find it odd because if the trough isn't deep enough than Florida would have to worry.My gut says Wilma path due to the high retreating into the Atlantic and the cold front entering Florida.

[SFLcane]

Indeed...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl.html

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250531
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 18 20111025
052130 1910N 08503W 6967 03212 //// +075 //// 059016 017 034 000 01
052200 1907N 08503W 6968 03210 //// +075 //// 063018 019 034 000 01
052230 1905N 08503W 6967 03214 //// +075 //// 066018 018 034 000 01
052300 1903N 08503W 6967 03212 //// +080 //// 065018 019 035 000 01
052330 1900N 08503W 6967 03208 //// +080 //// 063019 020 039 001 01
052400 1858N 08503W 6965 03211 //// +077 //// 057020 021 037 002 01
052430 1856N 08504W 6970 03207 //// +079 //// 054021 022 037 001 01
052500 1853N 08504W 6967 03207 //// +078 //// 055023 024 034 000 01
052530 1851N 08504W 6967 03210 //// +075 //// 054025 025 036 001 01
052600 1849N 08504W 6966 03211 //// +078 //// 055026 027 035 001 01
052630 1846N 08504W 6970 03204 //// +082 //// 057027 027 036 001 01
052700 1844N 08504W 6967 03210 //// +081 //// 050028 028 035 001 01
052730 1841N 08505W 6966 03212 //// +081 //// 047029 029 036 001 01
052800 1839N 08505W 6967 03207 //// +078 //// 043029 029 038 000 01
052830 1836N 08505W 6967 03204 //// +075 //// 043029 029 037 002 01
052900 1834N 08505W 6966 03209 //// +073 //// 041029 029 034 002 01
052930 1832N 08505W 6974 03208 //// +075 //// 041030 031 /// /// 05
053000 1830N 08504W 6970 03204 //// +075 //// 040030 030 034 000 05
053030 1829N 08503W 6969 03207 //// +074 //// 043032 032 034 000 01
053100 1828N 08501W 6967 03205 //// +071 //// 046031 032 033 000 01
$$

[weatherwindow]

Holy Humberto Batman, did this thing come together fast. A blob to a depression to a storm to a hurricane so fast, as Masters pointed out. I'm glad it's relatively small. The cold tops and banding are sure impressive for such a young storm.

Wouldn't you know this weekend I'm set to move out of the Keys, and the tropics are setting up for a possible kick in the behind. Looks like I might be putting up shutters before I finish packing.

Evening Recurve,
Good to see u again, why are you leaving the keys? I might find myself down putting up the shutters.

sorry to see you go...conchs are an endangered specie here on the board...if the gfdl continue its consistency i am dusting off the shutters also...it does appear as tho the gfs, euro and some other models are still initialized too weak. perhaps, the fast solution may still apply...rich

[Dave]

[fci]

00Z GFS makes no kind of sense to me. 500mb winds out of the SW the whole way from the Yucatan to Florida, but it dips Rina south? The only way I see Rina dipping south is if it gets sheared to death. If Rina remains anything more than a minimal tropical storm it looks like she is headed for South Florida at this time. I'm skeptical of the forecast shear. 200mb winds are at about 35-40 knots in four days over the SE Gulf. If the low-level flow is 15 knots that means wind shear is only 20-25 knots, similar to what Wilma saw back in 2005. 20-25 knots of shear isn't the end of the world for a major hurricane, assuming Rina reaches this level. Perhaps the resolution of the images I'm looking at aren't good enough...

Could it be hitting the front which drives it south as it moves south?
Seems like it would ride up the front rather than be driven south though

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250541
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 19 20111025
053130 1826N 08500W 6966 03205 //// +072 //// 046031 031 034 001 01
053200 1825N 08458W 6967 03203 //// +070 //// 045031 031 034 002 01
053230 1824N 08457W 6966 03203 //// +070 //// 048032 033 034 000 01
053300 1823N 08456W 6967 03202 //// +071 //// 044032 032 033 001 01
053330 1822N 08454W 6966 03208 //// +074 //// 046031 032 034 001 01
053400 1821N 08453W 6967 03201 //// +076 //// 055033 034 035 001 01
053430 1819N 08452W 6969 03199 //// +079 //// 058033 035 036 001 01
053500 1818N 08450W 6967 03200 //// +074 //// 052032 033 037 003 01
053530 1817N 08449W 6970 03200 //// +058 //// 048034 035 039 003 01
053600 1816N 08448W 6963 03206 //// +064 //// 050036 037 039 004 01
053630 1815N 08446W 6964 03206 //// +068 //// 052038 040 038 003 01
053700 1814N 08445W 6970 03193 //// +070 //// 050038 039 038 005 01
053730 1812N 08444W 6962 03203 //// +080 //// 048041 043 039 003 01
053800 1811N 08442W 6972 03188 //// +081 //// 039040 041 038 003 01
053830 1810N 08441W 6966 03198 //// +078 //// 041040 041 038 003 01
053900 1809N 08440W 6969 03191 //// +078 //// 041044 045 039 006 01
053930 1808N 08438W 6961 03198 //// +066 //// 037044 046 040 010 01
054000 1806N 08437W 6968 03190 //// +062 //// 035040 041 044 010 01
054030 1805N 08435W 6961 03197 //// +067 //// 026036 038 037 020 05
054100 1804N 08434W 6988 03169 //// +068 //// 035036 039 043 007 01
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

Does anyone on right now know how to manually calculate the extrapolated pressure? Recon isn't showing it yet...

[WeatherEmperor]

As was mentioned in the main Rina thread, the 00Z HWRF has now joined the GFS in doing a loop back into the NW Caribbean. Waiting to see if the GFDL does the same:


NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM RINA 18L

INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 25

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -83.10 LAT: 17.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -83.50 LAT: 17.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -83.90 LAT: 17.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -84.40 LAT: 17.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -84.70 LAT: 17.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 951.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -85.20 LAT: 17.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 951.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -85.80 LAT: 18.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 944.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -86.30 LAT: 18.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 941.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -86.50 LAT: 19.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -86.80 LAT: 19.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 943.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -87.00 LAT: 20.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 947.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -86.90 LAT: 20.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -86.60 LAT: 21.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -86.40 LAT: 22.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -86.10 LAT: 22.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 959.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -85.70 LAT: 22.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -85.30 LAT: 22.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -85.10 LAT: 22.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -84.70 LAT: 22.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -84.50 LAT: 21.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -84.10 LAT: 20.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -83.80 LAT: 19.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):