ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[3090]

One bad you know what looking tropical system. I would have to say, Katia has the best look of any system thus far, this season, and has the most potential to reach category 4 or 5 status. Very big system as well. Probably covers more ocean surface area then Irene.

Just my non professional opinion and is no way intended to be in any way, an OFFICIAL forecast of future intensity.

[OuterBanker]

Local (Hampton Roads) forecasters are saying that virtually all models are taking this out to sea. They're basically writing off katia now and saying it's nothing to be concerned about.

[3090]

I see wunderground must have updated their models as soon as I posted it..Now the GFS and GFDL look to be re-curving Katia much quicker around 65 West while NOGAPS, NGFDL, UKMET, and HWRF are sticking to more of a westward track.

Very curious looking, to see such a divergence, even though it is early. The 4 models showing a bend back to the west are quite interesting. Usually this far out, I have seen a right bias forecast with tropical systems. I generally don't remember seeing bends back to the west, until late in the game, so to speak. Mostly when hurricanes are approaching the Bahamas. JMO.

I would think if something of a home brew develops in the central GOM, it just may help reinforce the ridge off the east coast and help steer Katia more west late in her track, then a recurve more later and up the east coast again.

[terrapintransit]

Local (Hampton Roads) forecasters are saying that virtually all models are taking this out to sea. They're basically writing off katia now and saying it's nothing to be concerned about.

Definitely sounds like good news. Lets hope they are right. It seems a bit too early that they should be making bold statements like that though..IMO

[Swimdude]

Probably too early to be talking about this, but since talking about things too early has been a consistent feature of these boards for at LEAST the last 7 years... Can anyone tell if Katia is doing the "RI Fist?" I believe the term was coined by a member here... And essentially it describes the look of the system (obviously a fist), which is typically an immediate precursor to RI.

[CrazyC83]

30/2345 UTC 13.7N 36.1W T3.0/3.0 KATIA -- Atlantic

[abajan]

No major changes: Still misses islands (not so sure about Bermuda though).

[CrazyC83]

The GFDI sure goes wild with this storm! 150 kt, yikes!

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

A recurve bow is one with multiple angles of curve. It doesn't look like a parenthese, it bends first to the left at the tip, then to the right in the middle. I suspect the term indicates this as storms like to head WNW, then more sharply NNW to eventually NNE and NE.

[stormreader]

Sure is looking good on the mimic tonight.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[cycloneye]

In the last couple of hours,it has not continued to organize as it was earlier. I see them mantaining at 50kts on the 11 PM advisory.



Saved image.

[abajan]

Best kind of storm. A beauty to watch...coming and going.

Agreed!

I wonder if it'll go annular.

[Swimdude]

Best kind of storm. A beauty to watch...coming and going.

Agreed!

I wonder if it'll go annular.

The A-word on page 25! Count it!

[3090]

Sure is looking good on the mimic tonight.

Also notice in that same view, the spin and something trying to come together in the NW Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

12Z Experimental FIM at 216 hours. It passes very close to Bermuda (near direct hit), just to the east and is quite a powerful hurricane:

[Aric Dunn]

looks like the early hints of a an eye starting to form.. appears a hurricane sooner rather than later seems more likely


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[gatorcane]

Still looks like Katia will stay well north of the eastern Caribbean on Sunday. Nothing to indicate otherwise. And it will probably recurve well east of the U.S., possibly impacting Bermuda around next Tuesday and eastern Canada late next week.

Yes, that has been my call as well. I gained more confidence earlier today looking at the 12Z models as they continued to shift more east from the 18Z runs yesterday. Yesterday I was reasonably sure that it would not impact the Leewards.

Bermuda threat possibly, though it is a very small target out there so it could easily miss.

[SouthDadeFish]

Eye forming?



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[Swimdude]

looks like the early hints of a an eye starting to form.. appears a hurricane sooner rather than later seems more likely


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

If we're looking at the same feature, Katia is well North of her forecast point, yes?

[Aric Dunn]

looks like the early hints of a an eye starting to form.. appears a hurricane sooner rather than later seems more likely


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

If we're looking at the same feature, Katia is well North of her forecast point, yes?

yes, but its a formative wobble so far. not a true motion as of yet.