ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[StormClouds63]

Large-scale perspective ...
http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/overview2/color_med/latestfull.jpg

[KWT]

Recon's corrected RECCO Ob stated surface winds (likely by SFMR) 40 knots.

Fits with the wind estimates at flight level, probably a reasonable estimate.

Amazing system already...it does indeed look like one of those big chunky WPAC storms.

[Dave]

271
URNT15 KNHC 202033
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 23 20110820
202330 1541N 05634W 9593 00419 0067 +221 +076 090041 041 040 010 00
202400 1540N 05636W 9593 00419 0069 +199 +076 090044 046 045 016 00
202430 1539N 05637W 9592 00418 0067 +197 +076 089047 048 050 018 00
202500 1537N 05638W 9595 00414 0067 +195 +077 089050 053 050 015 00
202530 1536N 05640W 9584 00422 0065 +196 +077 086050 052 045 013 03
202600 1535N 05641W 9600 00406 0062 +206 +077 087048 050 044 013 00
202630 1535N 05643W 9593 00416 0067 +199 +077 088043 049 043 014 03
202700 1534N 05645W 9600 00411 0067 +200 +078 097035 037 047 019 03
202730 1534N 05647W 9595 00419 0072 +197 +078 101033 035 /// /// 03
202800 1533N 05648W 9603 00410 0073 +192 +077 117031 033 053 023 03
202830 1531N 05649W 9587 00427 0070 +199 +075 124039 042 053 023 00
202900 1530N 05650W 9591 00419 0066 +212 +072 126041 043 040 012 00
202930 1529N 05651W 9591 00419 0066 +207 +071 124037 038 039 009 00
203000 1528N 05652W 9591 00420 0070 +195 +070 118033 034 044 009 00
203030 1526N 05652W 9608 00406 0072 +195 +070 126031 032 043 012 00
203100 1525N 05653W 9595 00417 0072 +189 +070 125038 041 046 014 00
203130 1524N 05654W 9599 00413 0072 +189 +069 130038 038 048 019 03
203200 1522N 05655W 9593 00418 0071 +191 +069 124037 038 045 024 03
203230 1521N 05656W 9590 00422 0066 +220 +068 121036 037 040 011 00
203300 1520N 05657W 9598 00413 0067 +220 +069 126032 033 036 003 03
$$
;


53 flt; 53 sfmr no flags

[chrisjslucia]

South of Martinique : It's very quite here, nothing move.
Weather report here said it's just rain. Impact: weak to moderate.
What do you think about that? It's ok?

Madinina, it is the same here in the North of St Lucia. No wind, occasional showers, clearer and lighter than earlier today and Martinique visible again.
With low internet bandwidth today I can't open / view any loops or models to get a fix on what is happening. As we sit in the middle of this system it is difficult to know how this will span out over the next 24 hours as it passes.

Any info / analysis from other S2K'ers would be welcome for us islanders.

Chris

[ozonepete]

I asked this question before, and I don't know if someone answered me or not, but will a huge storm(like 97L might be) be less likely to be disrupted as much by the islands as a smaller system would?

Puerto Rico can cause a fair amount of disruption to even a strong storm, but it's a small island so the disruption usually doesn't last. Hispaniola can turn a cat 5 into a TS.

[Aric Dunn]

ok now 53kt FL winds .. lol 50 sfmr ..

[cycloneye]

Special advisory if they can find only a hint of west wind.

[brunota2003]

53 knots flight level...using a .85 reduction comes out to 45.05 knots on the surface, and SFMR readings confirm that (or possibly higher).

[KWT]

202500 1537N 05638W 9595 00414 0067 +195 +077 089050 053 050 015 00

Woah!

To be fair Hispaniola can destroy just about anything really...BUT a condusive upper pattern can certainly help it reset itself over water quickly...of course its far better for the system to just totally miss Hispaniola!

[ROCK]

I asked this question before, and I don't know if someone answered me or not, but will a huge storm(like 97L might be) be less likely to be disrupted as much by the islands as a smaller system would?

its the core that matters...regardless of size....if it crawls across the mountians it will knock it down....

[Hurricaneman]

Its looking like this could be stronger than anticipated

[Aric Dunn]

Special advisory if they can find only a hint of west wind.

yeah with those high winds. any little idea of a LLC forming would likely cause upgrade.

[tolakram]

[Lowpressure]

From the most recent

202500 1537N 05638W 9595 00414 0067 +195 +077 089050 053 050 015 00

[ROCK]

53 knots flight level...using a .85 reduction comes out to 45.05 knots on the surface, and SFMR readings confirm that (or possibly higher).

I have never seen anything like this before in the ALT.....

[ConvergenceZone]

I asked this question before, and I don't know if someone answered me or not, but will a huge storm(like 97L might be) be less likely to be disrupted as much by the islands as a smaller system would?

Thanks, but I'm not talking about the strength of the storm, I'm talking about the size of the circulation.
I realize that it will probably be knocked down to tropical storm strength if it goes over the islands, just curious though if a larger storm in size would fair better than a smaller one.

[KWT]

I asked this question before, and I don't know if someone answered me or not, but will a huge storm(like 97L might be) be less likely to be disrupted as much by the islands as a smaller system would?

its the core that matters...regardless of size....if it crawls across the mountians it will knock it down....

Yep it'd get torn apart, the big size of the system will help to draw moisture into the system though and help it once past the mountions.

Track is going to ber real key as to whether we have a 60-80kts system or a 100-120kts system IMO.

[ConvergenceZone]

I asked this question before, and I don't know if someone answered me or not, but will a huge storm(like 97L might be) be less likely to be disrupted as much by the islands as a smaller system would?

its the core that matters...regardless of size....if it crawls across the mountians it will knock it down....

k thanks Rock, perhaps we'll more than likely just have a nice tropical storm to bring some good rains to Florida then...

[maxintensity]

It's a 55-60mph open wave or TS.

[Aric Dunn]

but the wind direction is all wrong... SE to ESE winds where they are... but they are heading SW ..