ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

992
URNT15 KNHC 280459
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 53 20110828
044530 3748N 07512W 6960 02772 9574 +128 //// 328019 020 /// /// 05
044600 3749N 07511W 6966 02755 9571 +121 //// 342016 017 030 000 05
044630 3751N 07510W 6967 02752 9570 +124 //// 003012 015 029 002 01
044700 3753N 07510W 6967 02753 9574 +118 //// 049014 016 032 003 01
044730 3754N 07509W 6967 02757 9583 +115 //// 076020 022 037 003 01
044800 3756N 07508W 6966 02760 //// +111 //// 087024 026 037 005 01
044830 3757N 07508W 6967 02764 //// +108 //// 094030 031 056 003 01
044900 3759N 07507W 6966 02767 //// +105 //// 102034 036 066 009 05
044930 3800N 07506W 6970 02771 //// +101 //// 106037 037 052 005 01
045000 3802N 07506W 6970 02784 9622 +105 //// 109037 037 042 007 01
045030 3804N 07505W 6965 02790 9627 +106 //// 113039 040 042 008 01
045100 3805N 07504W 6967 02794 9637 +104 //// 113039 039 040 008 01
045130 3807N 07504W 6955 02816 9645 +093 //// 114042 042 041 008 01
045200 3809N 07503W 6968 02809 //// +069 //// 117045 047 042 012 01
045230 3811N 07502W 6957 02827 //// +072 //// 118048 049 045 011 01
045300 3813N 07501W 6970 02817 //// +076 //// 118048 049 041 010 01
045330 3814N 07500W 6966 02830 //// +081 //// 119049 050 040 009 01
045400 3816N 07459W 6962 02838 //// +094 //// 119050 050 041 008 01
045430 3818N 07459W 6967 02837 9691 +097 //// 121051 051 040 007 01
045500 3820N 07458W 6971 02836 9695 +098 //// 121051 051 039 006 01
$$
;

[ROCK]

Don't be too tough. I don't like bashing the media but I also know hours of coverage without a lot of (new) substance gets old. I'm sure the person who posted isn't downplaying the casualties.

you havent seen his prior posts....

[Ptarmigan]

I think Irene is going to be a huge flood event and probably the largest one besides Carol, Connie, Diane, and Floyd. Main concern is complacency on the East Coast.

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 280502
97779 04580 10385 7480/ 30400 14051 09//8 /3833
RMK AF304 3409A IRENE OB 28
SWS = 42 KTS
;

[funster]

Battery Park Tide Data - starting to run above normal
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_m ... =Tide+Data

[Ptarmigan]

There are people walking in Times Square.

[Chacor]

Washington DC has just reported its first observation of sustained tropical storm-force winds.

ob KDCA 280454Z 36036G50KT 3SM RA BKN021 BKN034 OVC055 23/20 A2915 RMK AO2 PK WND 36051/0448 P0034
At 12:54 am EDT, wind from the north at 36 kt (41 mph) gusting to 50 kt (58 mph). Pressure 29.15 inches Hg (987mb)

And now JFK International at New York has now reported its first TS force sustained (automated station, not a verified report), well in advance of the storm centre.

ob KJFK 280500Z AUTO 08034G44KT 2 1/2SM R04R/5000VP6000FT +RA BR BKN014 BKN019 OVC027 24/22 A2936 RMK AO2 PK WND 07044/0454 PRESFR P0006 TSNO
At 1 am EDT, wind from east (80 deg) at 34 kt (39 mph) gusting to 44 kt (51 mph). Pressure 29.36 inches Hg (994mb).

[Ptarmigan]

NOAA graphic showing latest surface wind estimates - hurricane force winds (64kt) remain offshore....jersey shore into nyc and long island look like they are going to get some fierce winds at this rate...

http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/395/al09 ... ontour.png
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... /wind.html

I notice a discrepancy between advisory and surface wind estimates.

[Dave]

[GoneBabyGone]

Couple qs:

1. Any way to approximate when the storm surge will hit certain areas?

2. Any predicted storm surge maps for the nj coast? Gf lives in belmar (evacuated, but they're already getting pounded and flooded there and the worst hasn't even come yet).

[Dave]

421
URNT15 KNHC 280507
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 54 20110828
045530 3822N 07457W 6961 02855 9698 +100 //// 123051 051 045 007 01
045600 3824N 07456W 6967 02856 9705 +100 //// 125050 051 054 005 01
045630 3826N 07455W 6970 02855 //// +089 //// 128051 052 059 017 01
045700 3828N 07454W 6963 02865 //// +072 //// 129052 053 047 014 01
045730 3830N 07453W 6963 02872 //// +085 //// 130053 054 045 011 01
045800 3832N 07452W 6963 02883 9735 +092 //// 132052 053 /// /// 05
045830 3831N 07450W 6965 02876 //// +091 //// 133049 051 /// /// 05
045900 3831N 07448W 6969 02870 //// +087 //// 138052 052 044 005 01
045930 3831N 07446W 6966 02875 //// +093 //// 140053 053 043 006 01
050000 3831N 07444W 6966 02872 //// +090 //// 139054 055 044 006 01
050030 3831N 07442W 6967 02872 //// +095 //// 139054 054 044 006 01
050100 3831N 07440W 6967 02870 //// +100 //// 141054 055 046 006 01
050130 3830N 07438W 6967 02874 //// +081 //// 144056 056 049 006 05
050200 3830N 07436W 6962 02891 //// +088 //// 143054 054 /// /// 05
050230 3828N 07437W 6963 02876 //// +099 //// 143054 054 043 005 05
050300 3828N 07437W 6963 02876 9714 +102 //// 141052 053 047 008 01
050330 3825N 07439W 6967 02858 //// +100 //// 140053 053 040 006 01
050400 3824N 07441W 6965 02859 //// +099 //// 138053 053 040 006 01
050430 3822N 07442W 6967 02848 //// +088 //// 137053 053 040 008 01
050500 3821N 07443W 6966 02846 //// +084 //// 136051 052 042 009 01
$$
;

[Recurve]

Don't be too tough. I don't like bashing the media but I also know hours of coverage without a lot of (new) substance gets old. I'm sure the person who posted isn't downplaying the casualties.

you havent seen his prior posts....

That's true. Maybe you guys are right to be fed up. I'm maybe especially sad and extra empathetic tonight because of what a disaster we've got going on.

I highly recommend the "foe" option available in everyone's profile. It really is calming to not see every post on S2K sometimes.

[Ptarmigan]

Some cars and pedestrians in Times Square before Irene comes crashing in.
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 280506
97779 05020 10385 7460/ 30500 14053 10//8 /3830
RMK AF304 3409A IRENE OB 29
SWS = 44 KTS
;

[Chacor]

Washington DC has just reported its first observation of sustained tropical storm-force winds.

ob KDCA 280454Z 36036G50KT 3SM RA BKN021 BKN034 OVC055 23/20 A2915 RMK AO2 PK WND 36051/0448 P0034
At 12:54 am EDT, wind from the north at 36 kt (41 mph) gusting to 50 kt (58 mph). Pressure 29.15 inches Hg (987mb)

And now JFK International at New York has now reported its first TS force sustained (automated station, not a verified report), well in advance of the storm centre.

ob KJFK 280500Z AUTO 08034G44KT 2 1/2SM R04R/5000VP6000FT +RA BR BKN014 BKN019 OVC027 24/22 A2936 RMK AO2 PK WND 07044/0454 PRESFR P0006 TSNO
At 1 am EDT, wind from east (080 deg) at 34 kt (39 mph) gusting to 44 kt (51 mph). Pressure 29.36 inches Hg (994mb).

Seeing a similar (but non-automated) report from La Guardia of near-TS sustained:
ob KLGA 280451Z 07030G40KT 3SM +RA BR SCT007 BKN013 OVC020 23/22 A29.41 RMK PKWND 07040/0447 SLP959 P0051 T02330217 402390217
At 12:51 am EDT, wind from the east-northeast (070 deg) at 30 kt (35 mph) gusting to 40 kt (46 mph), pressure 29.41 inches Hg (996mb).

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 280513
XXAA 78057 99378 70751 11675 99958 22402 34007 00873 ///// /////
92308 20801 35010 85039 18203 01010 70705 13402 24004 88999 77999
31313 09608 80443
61616 AF304 3409A IRENE OB 30
62626 EYE SPL 3782N07511W 0447 MBL WND 35009 AEV 20802 DLM WND 36
004 958697 WL150 33508 083 REL 3782N07511W 044343 SPG 3782N07511W
044715 =
XXBB 78058 99378 70751 11675 00958 22402 11850 18203 22830 19004
33709 15003 44697 13002
21212 00958 34007 11850 01010 22697 25004
31313 09608 80443
61616 AF304 3409A IRENE OB 30
62626 EYE SPL 3782N07511W 0447 MBL WND 35009 AEV 20802 DLM WND 36
004 958697 WL150 33508 083 REL 3782N07511W 044343 SPG 3782N07511W
044715 =
;

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE OB 30

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 05:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 34
Observation Number: 30

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 5Z on the 28th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 37.8N 75.1W
Location: 41 miles (66 km) to the S (182°) from Ocean City, MD, USA.
Marsden Square: 116 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
958mb (28.29 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 340° (from the NNW) 7 knots (8 mph)
1000mb -373m (-1224 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 308m (1,010 ft) 20.8°C (69.4°F) 20.7°C (69.3°F) 350° (from the N) 10 knots (12 mph)
850mb 1,039m (3,409 ft) 18.2°C (64.8°F) 17.9°C (64.2°F) 10° (from the N) 10 knots (12 mph)
700mb 2,705m (8,875 ft) 13.4°C (56.1°F) 13.2°C (55.8°F) 240° (from the WSW) 4 knots (5 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 4:43Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 37.82N 75.11W
Splash Time: 4:47Z

Release Location: 37.82N 75.11W View map)
Release Time: 4:43:43Z

Splash Location: 37.82N 75.11W (
Splash Time: 4:47:15Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 350° (from the N)
- Wind Speed: 9 knots (10 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 360° (from the N)
- Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 958mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 335° (from the NNW)
- Wind Speed: 8 knots (9 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
958mb (Surface) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 22.2°C (72.0°F)
850mb 18.2°C (64.8°F) 17.9°C (64.2°F)
830mb 19.0°C (66.2°F) 18.6°C (65.5°F)
709mb 15.0°C (59.0°F) 14.7°C (58.5°F)
697mb 13.0°C (55.4°F) 12.8°C (55.0°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
958mb (Surface) 340° (from the NNW) 7 knots (8 mph)
850mb 10° (from the N) 10 knots (12 mph)
697mb 250° (from the WSW) 4 knots (5 mph)


---



[Recurve]

Couple qs:

1. Any way to approximate when the storm surge will hit certain areas?

2. Any predicted storm surge maps for the nj coast? Gf lives in belmar (evacuated, but they're already getting pounded and flooded there and the worst hasn't even come yet).

I did a search on SLOSH models because I know people have been posting about them, but I didn't find a link for you, just this:

petit_bois Wrote:
Can someone help me find the slosh models for the New Jersey to New England area?
Thanks...


Look through the Irene Discussion thread from page 295 and beyond. There are examples there.

[summersquall]

Just was looking at the Wunderground radar...Nice band of reds showing up near the eyewall near Berlin and Ocean Pines Delaware. Looks like Atlantic City is going to take this one on the chin. I wonder how the boardwalk is holding up???

SFT

From earlier today, beach erosion in Atlantic City, NJ: