ATL: IRENE - Models

[Vortex]

looks like its going to lift out and think this run will be very similar tot he 12Z...

[Ivanhater]

108 hours

[Ivanhater]

Pretty similar to 12z so far.

[cycloneye]

gatorcane,no Emily repeat in terms of track.

[Vortex]

Looks like weakness sets up again around 85w...may paya visit to Ivan after a review of the synoptics

[KWT]

Upper trough is stronger then it was progged a few days ago thats for sure, looks like the models may have been overkeen on changing the pattern...

Probably not a good sign for the SE states, Bahamas and also the Carolinas.

[Ivanhater]

120 hours...between Jamaica and Cuba

[Vortex]

should turn nw/NNW around 81-82W

[Ivanhater]

126 hours..trough is moving directly north instead of hanging back this run

[fci]

Thanks FCI....FSU has one of the best met schools in the nation

Just reposted so people hopefully keep perspective on that something is 7-9 days away and be aware and be prepared.

Appreciate Ivan and Rock and all the others who post the model runs just seems as sometimes the herd panic takes over.

Mike:
You are so right about the "informed" amatuers on the board who post the models for us and the Pro Mets who try to keep people grounded.
As for potential Jose and Katia; WAY too much for me to process at this point.
One threat at a time!

Oh, I know that FSU has a great Met school (and music program too) (and unfortunately getting real good at football again ). Just couldn't resist taking my obligatory shot!!!

[Ivanhater]

132 hours

[Vortex]

H+126 turning into weakness????



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal126.gif

[Ivanhater]

138 hours..trough moving out

[gatorcane]

132 hours

Well that is a big weakness sitting over Florida right there, if this storm is vertically stacked it is going to hit that, a weak system can probably scoot by underneath though and move along with the building 700MB ridge. The ECMWF shows a similar pattern but has the system stronger, so it hits that weakness and moves into South Florida.

[South Texas Storms]

Is this run any different than the 12z run so far?

[Ivanhater]

132 hours

Well that is a big weakness sitting over Florida right there, if this storm is vertically stacked it is going to hit that, a weak system can probably scoot by underneath though and move along with the building 700MB ridge. The ECMWF shows a similar pattern but has the system stronger, so it hits that weakness and moves into South Florida.

Possibly but if it far enough south it could just start lifting into it and not fully make it through before the ridge builds back in...this is why the uncertainty is large

[gatorcane]

Look at how big that 500MB weakness is at 132 hours. The door is open for it to move through it if it were a deeper system.

[Vortex]

H+144 moving wnw/nw into weakness...looks like a Panhandle/FL hit...sorta reminds me of cleo in 64'


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal144.gif

[KWT]

Track thus far is like the ECM but about 1-1.5 degrees further south.

Given the intial too south starting point, I'm getting alot of confidence from at least the first part of the ECM run.

A stronger early part of the system and could well see it getting close to clearing Hispaniola.

[Ivanhater]

150 hours...ridging trying to build in