ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I just finished reading an article released today by Peter Morici former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission in which he says "initial estimate of the losses imposed by Irene is about $25 to $30 billion."[/quote]

Was this number derived before the storm actually hit? It would seem to me that it was, and it probably factored in Wall Street closed for a couple days, and most of New York City without mass transit for a couple weeks. Since this storm was not the end of days disaster that the talking heads predicted (and are still trying to fabricate), I would venture that the actual figure would be considerably lower.

Just a guess though.

[ncbird]

I just finished reading an article released today by Peter Morici former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission in which he says "initial estimate of the losses imposed by Irene is about $25 to $30 billion."

Was this number derived before the storm actually hit? It would seem to me that it was, and it probably factored in Wall Street closed for a couple days, and most of New York City without mass transit for a couple weeks. Since this storm was not the end of days disaster that the talking heads predicted (and are still trying to fabricate), I would venture that the actual figure would be considerably lower.

Just a guess though.[/quote]

The article didn't break it all down. Just stated an early estimate direct damage loss of $7 billion and a 1 to 2 day activity loss over 25% of the economy to come up with that figure.

Myself I am always mind boggled at how they can even estimate losses before a storm has finished doing it things, but having spent the last 10 yrs researching both economic and damage affects tropical systems have had on NC I can see where these figures could be very possible.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.7N 72.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF RUTLAND VERMONT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...
COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER OR NEAR THE WATER WELL EAST OF THE
CENTER. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H...WAS REPORTED
FROM AN UNOFFICIAL SITE NEAR HYANNIS PORT MASSACHUSETTS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL PERSIST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST FROM CONNECTICUT THROUGH MAINE. THE HIGHEST
WATER LEVELS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE UPPER PARTS OF BAYS AND INLETS.
NEAR THE COAST...THESE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND.
COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND
USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...
FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...COMBINED WITH
HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY.
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED
TERRAIN IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS BECOMING ELONGATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IRENE IS BEGINNING TO
LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT WE WILL RETAIN THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. IT IS LIKELY HOWEVER...THAT THE NEXT
ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE THE LAST. AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT
RESTRENGTHEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE NEAR 020/23. IRENE OR ITS
POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. AFTERWARDS THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A BLEND OF THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER HIGH-RISE
STRUCTURES AND AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 42.7N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 46.5N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 29/1800Z 50.8N 66.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/0600Z 54.5N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 30/1800Z 57.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1800Z 60.0N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/1800Z 63.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1800Z 64.0N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Live radar image from the Weathernetwork here in Canada. Heavy rain now well into Montreal & Quebec city.

[Ptarmigan]

If Irene cost $25 to 30 billion, that would be one of the most costliest on record. No surprise considering it hit a populated area.

Here is the article.

Economic Impact of Irene
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011 ... act-irene/

[underthwx]

Gilboa Dam discharge rate into Schoharie Creek



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Note that's a log scale. and now at 60,000 cubic feet per second.

whats the population no. potentially affected by this situation...and is the power on...is this info. getting out to those affected?

[theweatherwatch]

Here is a video I took of Irene from Portland, Maine
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJ3PNFVsHdU

[vbhoutex]

If this has already made it to the forums, let me know and I will delete it. This is our own CATEGORY5 being interviewed yesterday.
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/on-air/as-seen-on/Wind__Rain_Pick_Up_in_Long_Branch__NJ__11_PM_Saturday_New_York-128544213.html

[hurr123]

Well. from the numbers we are hearing, Irene will likely be retired. It's hard to believe that damages will be in the 20-30 Billion range. But, even if it's half of that, this will be huge $$. More Flooding is to come; therefore, more damage. Irene is definetly making history!!!

[Florida1118]

Well. from the numbers we are hearing, Irene will likely be retired. It's hard to believe that damages will be in the 20-30 Billion range. But, even if it's half of that, this will be huge $$. More Flooding is to come; therefore, more damage. Irene is definetly making history!!!

And with Irene, we beat 2008 in 1 billion dollar disasters with 10. (Correct me if im wrong)

[AdamFirst]

Irene created another inlet to Pamlico Sound that tore through Route 12, trapping 2500 people on Hatteras Island for the time being.

Mark Sudduth (hurricanetrack.com) was in Columbia, NC this afternoon. Parts of the town were decimated by a tornado.

[Trishasmom]

Well. from the numbers we are hearing, Irene will likely be retired. It's hard to believe that damages will be in the 20-30 Billion range. But, even if it's half of that, this will be huge $$. More Flooding is to come; therefore, more damage. Irene is definetly making history!!!

And with Irene, we beat 2008 in 1 billion dollar disasters with 10. (Correct me if im wrong)

We are without power in Charles City with trees down on power lines all over. We had to go to another city to charge our phones and laptop. How did everyone else fair? I haven't been able to find anything out until just now.

Hope all are doing ok.

Carol

[tolakram]

Another video attempt at a radar loop, this one turned out a bit better. From earlier today, Irene and Jose.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ta4T1ReHlLA[/youtube]

[underthwx]

Well. from the numbers we are hearing, Irene will likely be retired. It's hard to believe that damages will be in the 20-30 Billion range. But, even if it's half of that, this will be huge $$. More Flooding is to come; therefore, more damage. Irene is definetly making history!!!

And with Irene, we beat 2008 in 1 billion dollar disasters with 10. (Correct me if im wrong)

We are without power in Charles City with trees down on power lines all over. We had to go to another city to charge our phones and laptop. How did everyone else fair? I haven't been able to find anything out until just now.

Hope all are doing ok.

Carol

we got ur back...i heard on the news last week i believe, powers crews from Texas were headin towards the region...stay safe

[Terry]

I didn't know if anyone had posted these photos and videos from the severe flooding in the Catskills or not. CNN's Chad Myers has been saying all day that it's a very dangerous situation.
CATSKILLS

[ncbird]

If Irene cost $25 to 30 billion, that would be one of the most costliest on record. No surprise considering it hit a populated area.

Here is the article.

Economic Impact of Irene
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011 ... act-irene/

Wow that is a revised later addition of the article than the one I read. He now has revised direct damage estimates as at $20 billion. Earlier article today only had them at $7 billion added on to the activity loss. I had thought maybe the $7 billion direct damage figure was a little on the low side, but never expected they would be $20 billion. Brings total estimated loss to $40 to 45 billion. I new multiplying the economic damages over so many states was gonna send the totals up there, but this is .... well just at a loss of words.

If indeed this is right, no doubt they will retire the name.

[tolakram]

Goodbye Irene, latest visible

[Trishasmom]

we got ur back...i heard on the news last week i believe, powers crews from Texas were headin towards the region...stay safe[/quote]

Thanks to all those coming in to help restore power here in VA. It's much appreciated. It's hot and muggy but at least we are alive to complain. lol My daughter has special needs and doesn't understand why we can't turn the lights on or cook something to eat. She keeps signing lights broke.

Carol

[WeatherGuesser]

The dollar figures so far don't include the heavy losses in Vermont.

[jinftl]

Per CNN,
The U.S. government said wind damage alone is expected to top $1 billion.

In the article that is being referenced, the author, who is an economist, estimates $7 billion in direct storm damage. The rest of the estimated cost is an estimate he has done on what lost business across the dc-boston corridor cost the last 2 days (25% of the nation's economy he estimates), and other indirect and intangible values that would not be used in an estimate of direct storm damage. The article is a little controversial as the author says storms like this that clear out old homes and businesses in the Carolinas make room for multiple resident summer properties that bring more economic growth and tourists with money to spend, so in the end, he also says the net windfall to the economic boom from reconstruction in the outer banks will outweigh the direct storm impacts.

The article being referenced: http://axcessnews.com/index.php/articles/show/id/22080


There is no way that Irene will cost 1/3 of what Katrina did if the same measures of calculating storm damages are used for the 2 storms. The damage stats don't even come close to supporting that.

If Irene cost $25 to 30 billion, that would be one of the most costliest on record. No surprise considering it hit a populated area.

Here is the article.

Economic Impact of Irene
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011 ... act-irene/

Wow that is a revised later addition of the article than the one I read. He now has revised direct damage estimates as at $20 billion. Earlier article today only had them at $7 billion added on to the activity loss. I had thought maybe the $7 billion direct damage figure was a little on the low side, but never expected they would be $20 billion. Brings total estimated loss to $40 to 45 billion. I new multiplying the economic damages over so many states was gonna send the totals up there, but this is .... well just at a loss of words.

If indeed this is right, no doubt they will retire the name.