ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland23]

what are the chances she caputs completely?

[AJC3]

what are the chances she caputs completely?

In the short term, it looks like it already has.

[northjaxpro]

Well, now this explains why the models early on we not bullish on developing Maria. Maria was moving at such an insane rapid forward motion speed the past 24 hours. She literally raced right through the convection, which is lagging well to her east. The shear has just about RIP our girl out there in the Eastern Atlantic.

We'll see if she can finally slow down and make a comeback, but right now Maria is on life support.

[Fego]

GFS puts all its money in that llc. I wonder, where are suppose to be those 50 mph winds, near the llc or inside the convection?

[Aric Dunn]

well still a well defined circ but convection is very displaced.... more westward she goes... and as last night she still on the 13n and actually seems to have been moving 265 for a while considering she is right on the 13N line vs the 13.2-13.3 last night.

[cycloneye]

GFS puts all its money in that llc. I wonder, where are suppose to be those 50 mph winds, near the llc or inside the convection?

The answer will be when the plane arrives late this afternoon.

[RL3AO]

Its hard not to look at the Caribbean and see nearly perfect upper level conditions and wonder what will happen when a wave can get in there.

[cycloneye]

The question becomes, when will she start to slowdown. I suspect when it nears the Lesser Antilles. To the folks in the islands dont let your guard down as you see what is going on this morning because even if it degenerates into a tropical wave, squally weather will move thru.

[Aric Dunn]

Finally the models are starting to see what has been happening with the ridging north of it and filling in behind Katia. The trend the last few days with that ridge was the tell tale sign. I dont think it will make it to florida right now but the left turn briefly is what I was wondering why the models were not picking up on...

[Aric Dunn]

The question becomes, when will she start to slowdown. I suspect when it nears the Lesser Antilles. To the folks in the islands dont let your guard down as you see what is going on this morning because even if it degenerates into a tropical wave, squally weather will move thru.

I was just about to say something about that. The models all still want to turn her at 280 or more starting later today and that just is not going to happen with this strong of a ridge north of her. in all likely hood given the weaker state the earlier runs of the Euro are looking more plausible.

its easy to see the ridging filling in behind katia and also note the weakness really does not start till around PR or eastern DR now. I dont see much in the way of latitude change for at least another 24hours. Hispaniola will have to start watching this now.


loop of steering... easy to see the ridging fill in behind KAtia ( as is normal with no digging trough and a retrograde mid to ull )
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 1java.html

current low level steering. ( note the steering is the same in the mid levels if she decides to deepen some)

[tolakram]

latest visible


Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... 5&map=none

A lot of missing frames at the moment.

[cycloneye]

Aric,is very interesting that at 8 AM a TS watch was issued for Guadeloupe and father south Martinique. As you can see,that island is out of the cone. That tells you they will change the track at 11 AM.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,is very interesting that at 8 AM a TS watch was issued for Guadeloupe and father south Martinique. As you can see,that island is out of the cone. That tells you they will change the track at 11 AM.

[img]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1411W5_NL+gif/121004W5_NL_sm.gif[/ig]

yeah I mentioned it last night that islands farther south will have to deal it since the trend of the ridging has been towards stronger and filling in behind katia... also note how far off the 5am track was with her current position .. Also saw that happen last night when the 11pm position was south of the 00z 5pm forecast position. hopefully the NHC will realize the models are not seeing the near term conditions/ synoptics and stay south of all the guidance. looks as though the early runs of the Euro were so far correct... ( crazy euro.. lol )

[caneman]

All the models this year seem to be suffering from the infamous flip flop condition.

[ouragans]

All the models this year seem to be suffering from the infamous flip flop condition.

All, except Euro, which was the only one showing that (potential) southern trackin the Windards

[SuperLikeNintendo]

I think anything is still possible at this point. That exaggerated turn West is scary.

[Aric Dunn]

Also want to note that the 00z NAM last night was first ( mostly because it ran before the rest.) to show the ridging fill in behind Katia more and quicker... which is more in line with the present trend of the ridging.... if you compare the 00z NAM with the 6z GFS they are almost identical with the development of stronger ridging and flow just WSW of Brumuda in 60 to 72 hours which is where Katia just passed. Also note that the mid/ull retrogrades farther west than forecast allowing the ridging to fill in also allows Nate to head NE because the farther west the cut off low gets the more the ridging over southern TX and Mexico is eroded.

So unless some sort of a short wave or energy swings around the cut off low to keep the ridging behind katia from filling in... dont be surprised if you seem more westward shifts sometime in the next few up coming runs.

[jinftl]

Let's say Maria degenerates...we have seen storms do this, only to regenerate when they are much further west...after 72 hours the impact of the upper low should lessen..by then the system (or remnants) will be past 70W.

[wxman57]

Aric,is very interesting that at 8 AM a TS watch was issued for Guadeloupe and father south Martinique. As you can see,that island is out of the cone. That tells you they will change the track at 11 AM.

Luis, the cone does not represent any particular weather. It only represents a 66.7 percentile of storm tracks in the past 5 years, meaning that 66.7% of the time, the center of the TC tracked somewhere in the cone. Tropical storm force and even hurricane force winds can extend well outside the cone. Watches/warnings frequently extend well outside the cone, particularly the near-term cone which is not as wide as the 5-day part.

[cycloneye]

Another thing Aric about the TS watch issued at 8 AM for Martinique/Guadeloupe is if NHC drops Maria into an open wave this afternoon,they see it comming back later and that is why the TS watch. What do you think about that?