WTXS21 PGTW 310130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S 125.5E TO 19.0S 115.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA AT 310100Z INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 124.9E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S
128.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 124.9E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ONSHORE FLOW OF SATURATED AND
UNSTABLE AIR SUSTAINED THE SYSTEM THROUGH ITS OVERLAND TRAJECTORY
AND NOW THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OFF-SHORE NEAR CYGNET BAY, WESTERN
AUSTRALIA, INTO VERY WARM (IN EXCESS OF 30 CELSIUS) WATERS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE CONVECTIVE BANDING
ORGANIZING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CONFIRM THE SYSTEM HAS DEEPENED BY 03 MB DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS.
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION REVEALS A WELL-DEVELOPED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EXISTS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT UNDER 10-15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010130Z.
//
W. AUS: Tropical Low 06U (INVEST 98S) - last warning
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: W. AUS: Tropical Low 06U (INVEST 98S TCFA) - cyclone warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 11:51 am WST on Friday 31 December 2010
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Wallal
to Exmouth
At 11:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be over land,
170 kilometres northeast of Derby and
325 kilometres northeast of Broome and
moving west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour.
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday morning
after it moves off the west Kimberley coast tonight. Coastal areas of the west
Kimberley between Cockatoo Island and Wallal including Broome can expect a
period of strong winds and heavy rain later today and tonight as the low passes
by.
While gales are not expected today, gales may develop along the Pilbara coast
on Saturday for a brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west
southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be
north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west southwest away from
the state.
Heavy rainfall of 50mm to 100mm with localised falls to 150mm are expected in
the north and west Kimberley today. Local stream rises are possible but
flooding is no longer expected. The system is unlikely to cause flooding in the
Pilbara due to its steady movement.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises advices of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Fortescue Roadhouse,
including Port Hedland, South Hedland, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier
and all other coastal communities in the above named coastal area should be
taking precautions.
Communities between Fortescue Roadhouse and Exmouth should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 11:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.1 degrees South 124.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Friday 31 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 11:51 am WST on Friday 31 December 2010
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Wallal
to Exmouth
At 11:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be over land,
170 kilometres northeast of Derby and
325 kilometres northeast of Broome and
moving west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour.
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday morning
after it moves off the west Kimberley coast tonight. Coastal areas of the west
Kimberley between Cockatoo Island and Wallal including Broome can expect a
period of strong winds and heavy rain later today and tonight as the low passes
by.
While gales are not expected today, gales may develop along the Pilbara coast
on Saturday for a brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west
southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be
north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west southwest away from
the state.
Heavy rainfall of 50mm to 100mm with localised falls to 150mm are expected in
the north and west Kimberley today. Local stream rises are possible but
flooding is no longer expected. The system is unlikely to cause flooding in the
Pilbara due to its steady movement.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises advices of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Fortescue Roadhouse,
including Port Hedland, South Hedland, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier
and all other coastal communities in the above named coastal area should be
taking precautions.
Communities between Fortescue Roadhouse and Exmouth should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 11:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.1 degrees South 124.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Friday 31 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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AXAU01 APRF 310709
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0709 UTC 31/12/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.3S
Longitude: 123.8E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [256 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 15 knots [30 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/1800: 17.4S 120.6E: 075 [140]: 030 [055]: 994
+24: 01/0600: 18.7S 117.3E: 105 [195]: 050 [095]: 984
+36: 01/1800: 19.7S 114.1E: 140 [255]: 070 [130]: 968
+48: 02/0600: 20.8S 111.5E: 170 [315]: 080 [150]: 960
+60: 02/1800: 21.5S 109.7E: 220 [405]: 060 [110]: 975
+72: 03/0600: 21.7S 108.9E: 265 [490]: 050 [095]: 980
REMARKS:
The system was located over land using surface observations and satellite
images. The system has improved slightly over the last 24 hours with greater
involvement the deep convection with the LLCC and improved curvature.
Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track due to a strong mid
level ridge to the south. The low is likely to move offshore tonight into
favourable sea surface temperatures and moderate shear environment. Being
forecast to be of midget size, the system should develop rapidly into a tropical
cyclone after spending less than 12 hours over open water.
The system has already developed reasonable structure and is being treated as a
T1.5 despite being over land. Given its forecast motion of 15 knots, strong
winds should extend further on the southern side increasing the chance of gales
on the Pilbara coast, albeit for a relatively short period. The rapid forward
motion will also reduce the system-relative shear.
Hence the system is forecast to intensify rapidly over open water and may reach
category 3 within 36-48 hours. In the longer term the system is likely to
encounter cooler waters northwest of Exmouth which should inhibit any further
development.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0709 UTC 31/12/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.3S
Longitude: 123.8E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [256 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 15 knots [30 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/1800: 17.4S 120.6E: 075 [140]: 030 [055]: 994
+24: 01/0600: 18.7S 117.3E: 105 [195]: 050 [095]: 984
+36: 01/1800: 19.7S 114.1E: 140 [255]: 070 [130]: 968
+48: 02/0600: 20.8S 111.5E: 170 [315]: 080 [150]: 960
+60: 02/1800: 21.5S 109.7E: 220 [405]: 060 [110]: 975
+72: 03/0600: 21.7S 108.9E: 265 [490]: 050 [095]: 980
REMARKS:
The system was located over land using surface observations and satellite
images. The system has improved slightly over the last 24 hours with greater
involvement the deep convection with the LLCC and improved curvature.
Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track due to a strong mid
level ridge to the south. The low is likely to move offshore tonight into
favourable sea surface temperatures and moderate shear environment. Being
forecast to be of midget size, the system should develop rapidly into a tropical
cyclone after spending less than 12 hours over open water.
The system has already developed reasonable structure and is being treated as a
T1.5 despite being over land. Given its forecast motion of 15 knots, strong
winds should extend further on the southern side increasing the chance of gales
on the Pilbara coast, albeit for a relatively short period. The rapid forward
motion will also reduce the system-relative shear.
Hence the system is forecast to intensify rapidly over open water and may reach
category 3 within 36-48 hours. In the longer term the system is likely to
encounter cooler waters northwest of Exmouth which should inhibit any further
development.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued at 2:47 pm WST on Friday 31 December 2010
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Wallal
to Exmouth
At 2:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be over land,
250 kilometres northeast of Broome and
115 kilometres north of Derby and
moving west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour.
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday morning
after it moves off the west Kimberley coast tonight. Coastal areas of the west
Kimberley between Cockatoo Island and Wallal including Broome can expect a
period of STRONG, SQUALLY WINDS and HEAVY RAIN tonight as the low passes by.
Winds and rain should ease across the west Kimberley during tomorrow as the low
moves away from the coast.
While gales are not expected tonight, gales may develop along the Pilbara coast
on Saturday for a brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west
southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be
north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west southwest away from
the state.
Heavy rainfall of 50mm to 100mm with localised falls to 150mm are expected in
the north and west Kimberley overnight but should ease during Saturday. Flash
flooding and local stream rises are possible. The system is unlikely to cause
flooding in the Pilbara due to its rapid movement.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises advices of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Fortescue Roadhouse,
including Port Hedland, South Hedland, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier
and all other coastal communities in the above named coastal area should be
taking precautions.
Communities between Fortescue Roadhouse and Exmouth should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.3 degrees South 123.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Friday 31 December.
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued at 2:47 pm WST on Friday 31 December 2010
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Wallal
to Exmouth
At 2:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be over land,
250 kilometres northeast of Broome and
115 kilometres north of Derby and
moving west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour.
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday morning
after it moves off the west Kimberley coast tonight. Coastal areas of the west
Kimberley between Cockatoo Island and Wallal including Broome can expect a
period of STRONG, SQUALLY WINDS and HEAVY RAIN tonight as the low passes by.
Winds and rain should ease across the west Kimberley during tomorrow as the low
moves away from the coast.
While gales are not expected tonight, gales may develop along the Pilbara coast
on Saturday for a brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west
southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be
north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west southwest away from
the state.
Heavy rainfall of 50mm to 100mm with localised falls to 150mm are expected in
the north and west Kimberley overnight but should ease during Saturday. Flash
flooding and local stream rises are possible. The system is unlikely to cause
flooding in the Pilbara due to its rapid movement.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises advices of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Fortescue Roadhouse,
including Port Hedland, South Hedland, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier
and all other coastal communities in the above named coastal area should be
taking precautions.
Communities between Fortescue Roadhouse and Exmouth should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.3 degrees South 123.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Friday 31 December.
0 likes
-
Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 5:42 pm WST on Friday 31 December 2010
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Wallal to
Exmouth
At 5:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be over land,
160 kilometres north northeast of Broome and
95 kilometres northwest of Derby and
moving west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour.
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday morning
after it moves off the west Kimberley coast tonight. Coastal areas of the west
Kimberley between Cockatoo Island and Wallal including Broome can expect a
period of STRONG, SQUALLY WINDS and HEAVY RAIN tonight as the low passes by.
Winds and rain should ease across the west Kimberley during Saturday as the low
moves away from the coast.
While gales are not expected tonight, gales may develop along the Pilbara coast
on Saturday for a brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west
southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be
north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west southwest away from
the state.
Heavy rainfall of 50mm to 100mm with localised falls to 150mm are expected in
the west Kimberley overnight but should ease during Saturday. Flash flooding
and local stream rises are possible. The system is unlikely to cause flooding
in the Pilbara due to its rapid movement.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Fortescue Roadhouse,
including Port Hedland, South Hedland, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier
and all other coastal communities in the above named coastal area should be
taking precautions.
Communities between Fortescue Roadhouse and Exmouth should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.7 degrees South 123.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Friday 31 December.
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 5:42 pm WST on Friday 31 December 2010
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Wallal to
Exmouth
At 5:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be over land,
160 kilometres north northeast of Broome and
95 kilometres northwest of Derby and
moving west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour.
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday morning
after it moves off the west Kimberley coast tonight. Coastal areas of the west
Kimberley between Cockatoo Island and Wallal including Broome can expect a
period of STRONG, SQUALLY WINDS and HEAVY RAIN tonight as the low passes by.
Winds and rain should ease across the west Kimberley during Saturday as the low
moves away from the coast.
While gales are not expected tonight, gales may develop along the Pilbara coast
on Saturday for a brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west
southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be
north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west southwest away from
the state.
Heavy rainfall of 50mm to 100mm with localised falls to 150mm are expected in
the west Kimberley overnight but should ease during Saturday. Flash flooding
and local stream rises are possible. The system is unlikely to cause flooding
in the Pilbara due to its rapid movement.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Fortescue Roadhouse,
including Port Hedland, South Hedland, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier
and all other coastal communities in the above named coastal area should be
taking precautions.
Communities between Fortescue Roadhouse and Exmouth should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.7 degrees South 123.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Friday 31 December.
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AXAU01 APRF 311304
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1303 UTC 31/12/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 17.2S
Longitude: 122.1E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [249 deg]
Speed of Movement: 16 knots [31 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 999 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 45 nm [85 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/0000: 18.4S 119.0E: 075 [140]: 040 [075]: 990
+24: 01/1200: 19.3S 115.5E: 105 [195]: 060 [110]: 975
+36: 02/0000: 19.6S 112.4E: 135 [250]: 080 [150]: 958
+48: 02/1200: 20.1S 110.2E: 170 [315]: 070 [130]: 965
+60: 03/0000: 20.2S 108.2E: 215 [400]: 050 [095]: 980
+72: 03/1200: 20.1S 106.8E: 265 [490]: 040 [075]: 987
REMARKS:
The system was located near the coast using surface observations and Broome
RADAR. The system has improved slightly over the last 24 hours with greater
involvement the deep convection with the LLCC and improved curvature.
Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track due to a strong mid
level ridge to the south. The low is moving offshore at the moment into
favourable sea surface temperatures and moderate shear environment. Being
forecast to be of midget size, the system should develop rapidly into a tropical
cyclone after spending less than 12 hours over open water.
The system has already developed reasonable structure and is being treated as a
T1.5 despite being over land. Given its forecast motion of around 15 knots,
strong winds should extend further on the southern side increasing the chance of
gales on the Pilbara coast, albeit for a relatively short period. The rapid
forward motion will also reduce the system-relative shear.
Hence the system is forecast to intensify rapidly over open water and may reach
category 3 within 30 hours. In the longer term the system is likely to encounter
cooler waters northwest of Exmouth which should inhibit any further development.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1303 UTC 31/12/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 17.2S
Longitude: 122.1E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [249 deg]
Speed of Movement: 16 knots [31 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 999 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 45 nm [85 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/0000: 18.4S 119.0E: 075 [140]: 040 [075]: 990
+24: 01/1200: 19.3S 115.5E: 105 [195]: 060 [110]: 975
+36: 02/0000: 19.6S 112.4E: 135 [250]: 080 [150]: 958
+48: 02/1200: 20.1S 110.2E: 170 [315]: 070 [130]: 965
+60: 03/0000: 20.2S 108.2E: 215 [400]: 050 [095]: 980
+72: 03/1200: 20.1S 106.8E: 265 [490]: 040 [075]: 987
REMARKS:
The system was located near the coast using surface observations and Broome
RADAR. The system has improved slightly over the last 24 hours with greater
involvement the deep convection with the LLCC and improved curvature.
Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track due to a strong mid
level ridge to the south. The low is moving offshore at the moment into
favourable sea surface temperatures and moderate shear environment. Being
forecast to be of midget size, the system should develop rapidly into a tropical
cyclone after spending less than 12 hours over open water.
The system has already developed reasonable structure and is being treated as a
T1.5 despite being over land. Given its forecast motion of around 15 knots,
strong winds should extend further on the southern side increasing the chance of
gales on the Pilbara coast, albeit for a relatively short period. The rapid
forward motion will also reduce the system-relative shear.
Hence the system is forecast to intensify rapidly over open water and may reach
category 3 within 30 hours. In the longer term the system is likely to encounter
cooler waters northwest of Exmouth which should inhibit any further development.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 11:42 pm WST on Friday 31 December 2010
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Wallal to
Exmouth
At 11:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be
95 kilometres west northwest of Broome and
435 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland and
moving west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.
Over the last 3 hours the low has moved offshore from the west Kimberley coast
and is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during Saturday morning.
Coastal areas of the west Kimberley between Cape Leveque and Wallal including
Broome may experience a period of STRONG, SQUALLY WINDS and HEAVY RAIN, easing
during Saturday as the low moves away from the west Kimberley coast.
Gales may develop for a brief period along the Pilbara coast during Saturday as
the system moves steadily towards the west southwest parallel to the Pilbara
coast. By Sunday morning the system is likely to be north of Exmouth and
continuing to move towards the west southwest away from the state.
Heavy rainfall of 50mm to 100mm with localised falls to 150mm are expected to
ease in the west Kimberley during Saturday. Flash flooding and local stream
rises are possible. The system is unlikely to cause flooding in the Pilbara due
to its rapid movement.FESA-State Emergency Service advises the following
community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Fortescue Roadhouse,
including Port Hedland, South Hedland, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier
and all other coastal communities in the above named coastal area should be
taking precautions.
Communities between Fortescue Roadhouse and Exmouth should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.5 degrees South 121.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Saturday 01 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 11:42 pm WST on Friday 31 December 2010
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Wallal to
Exmouth
At 11:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be
95 kilometres west northwest of Broome and
435 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland and
moving west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.
Over the last 3 hours the low has moved offshore from the west Kimberley coast
and is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during Saturday morning.
Coastal areas of the west Kimberley between Cape Leveque and Wallal including
Broome may experience a period of STRONG, SQUALLY WINDS and HEAVY RAIN, easing
during Saturday as the low moves away from the west Kimberley coast.
Gales may develop for a brief period along the Pilbara coast during Saturday as
the system moves steadily towards the west southwest parallel to the Pilbara
coast. By Sunday morning the system is likely to be north of Exmouth and
continuing to move towards the west southwest away from the state.
Heavy rainfall of 50mm to 100mm with localised falls to 150mm are expected to
ease in the west Kimberley during Saturday. Flash flooding and local stream
rises are possible. The system is unlikely to cause flooding in the Pilbara due
to its rapid movement.FESA-State Emergency Service advises the following
community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Fortescue Roadhouse,
including Port Hedland, South Hedland, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier
and all other coastal communities in the above named coastal area should be
taking precautions.
Communities between Fortescue Roadhouse and Exmouth should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.5 degrees South 121.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Saturday 01 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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IDW20400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
TOP PRIORITY
WIND WARNING
For coastal waters from Kuri Bay to Northwest Cape
Issued at 11:54 pm WST on Friday 31 December 2010
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 11:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was located within 45 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal five degrees South (17.5S)
longitude one hundred and twenty one decimal five degrees East (121.5E)
about 50 nautical miles west northwest of Broome
and 235 nautical miles northeast of Port Hedland
Recent movement : west southwest at 16 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 997 hectopascals
Forecast to be over water within 75 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal seven degrees South (18.7S)
longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal three degrees East (118.3E)
about 230 nautical miles west of Broome
with maximum winds of 45 knots
at 11:00 am WST Saturday
Forecast to be within 105 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal four degrees South (19.4S)
longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal nine degrees East (114.9E)
about 430 nautical miles west southwest of Broome
with maximum winds of 65 knots
at 11:00 pm WST Saturday
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 20 nautical miles of centre
Clockwise winds above 64 knots developing by 11:00 pm WST Saturday. Combined
seas and swell to 6m.
STORM FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 30 nautical miles of centre
Clockwise winds above 48 knots from 2:00 pm WST Saturday. Combined seas and
swell to 5m.
GALE WARNING
Within 80 nautical miles of centre in the southern semicircle
and within 40 nautical miles of centre in the northern semicircle
Clockwise winds increasing to 35/45 knots by 8:00 am WST Saturday. Combined
seas and swell to 4m.
STRONG WIND WARNING
For coastal waters elsewhere from Kuri Bay to Northwest Cape
Winds between Kuri Bay and Broome northeast to northwest 20/30 knots,
increasing to 25/33 knots during Saturday morning. Winds between Broome and
Wallal increasing to east to northeast 20/30 knots during Saturday morning,
reaching 25/33 knots offshore for a period Saturday, tending north to northeast
20/30 knots Saturday afternoon. Winds between Wallal and Northwest Cape
increasing to southeast to northeast 25/33 knots during Saturday, easing to
northeast 20/30 knots in the east during the afternoon. Squalls to 45 knots in
thunderstorms. Seas rising to 2.5 metres and swell rising to 1.0 to 2.0 metres.
The next warning will be issued by 3:00 am WST Saturday 01 January.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
TOP PRIORITY
WIND WARNING
For coastal waters from Kuri Bay to Northwest Cape
Issued at 11:54 pm WST on Friday 31 December 2010
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 11:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was located within 45 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal five degrees South (17.5S)
longitude one hundred and twenty one decimal five degrees East (121.5E)
about 50 nautical miles west northwest of Broome
and 235 nautical miles northeast of Port Hedland
Recent movement : west southwest at 16 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 997 hectopascals
Forecast to be over water within 75 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal seven degrees South (18.7S)
longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal three degrees East (118.3E)
about 230 nautical miles west of Broome
with maximum winds of 45 knots
at 11:00 am WST Saturday
Forecast to be within 105 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal four degrees South (19.4S)
longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal nine degrees East (114.9E)
about 430 nautical miles west southwest of Broome
with maximum winds of 65 knots
at 11:00 pm WST Saturday
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 20 nautical miles of centre
Clockwise winds above 64 knots developing by 11:00 pm WST Saturday. Combined
seas and swell to 6m.
STORM FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 30 nautical miles of centre
Clockwise winds above 48 knots from 2:00 pm WST Saturday. Combined seas and
swell to 5m.
GALE WARNING
Within 80 nautical miles of centre in the southern semicircle
and within 40 nautical miles of centre in the northern semicircle
Clockwise winds increasing to 35/45 knots by 8:00 am WST Saturday. Combined
seas and swell to 4m.
STRONG WIND WARNING
For coastal waters elsewhere from Kuri Bay to Northwest Cape
Winds between Kuri Bay and Broome northeast to northwest 20/30 knots,
increasing to 25/33 knots during Saturday morning. Winds between Broome and
Wallal increasing to east to northeast 20/30 knots during Saturday morning,
reaching 25/33 knots offshore for a period Saturday, tending north to northeast
20/30 knots Saturday afternoon. Winds between Wallal and Northwest Cape
increasing to southeast to northeast 25/33 knots during Saturday, easing to
northeast 20/30 knots in the east during the afternoon. Squalls to 45 knots in
thunderstorms. Seas rising to 2.5 metres and swell rising to 1.0 to 2.0 metres.
The next warning will be issued by 3:00 am WST Saturday 01 January.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 3:00 am WST on Saturday 1 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Wallal to
Exmouth
At 2:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be
320 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
225 kilometres west of Broome and
moving west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.
The low has moved offshore from the west Kimberley coast and is expected to
develop into a tropical cyclone during Saturday.
Gales may develop for a brief period along the Pilbara coast during today as
the system moves steadily towards the west southwest parallel to the Pilbara
coast. By Sunday morning the system is likely to be north of Exmouth and
continuing to move towards the west southwest away from the state.
The system is unlikely to cause flooding in the Pilbara due to its rapid
movement.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Fortescue Roadhouse,
including Port Hedland, South Hedland, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier
and all other coastal communities in the above named coastal area should be
taking precautions.
Communities between Fortescue Roadhouse and Exmouth should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.8 degrees South 120.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Saturday 01 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 3:00 am WST on Saturday 1 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Wallal to
Exmouth
At 2:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be
320 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
225 kilometres west of Broome and
moving west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.
The low has moved offshore from the west Kimberley coast and is expected to
develop into a tropical cyclone during Saturday.
Gales may develop for a brief period along the Pilbara coast during today as
the system moves steadily towards the west southwest parallel to the Pilbara
coast. By Sunday morning the system is likely to be north of Exmouth and
continuing to move towards the west southwest away from the state.
The system is unlikely to cause flooding in the Pilbara due to its rapid
movement.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Fortescue Roadhouse,
including Port Hedland, South Hedland, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier
and all other coastal communities in the above named coastal area should be
taking precautions.
Communities between Fortescue Roadhouse and Exmouth should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.8 degrees South 120.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Saturday 01 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 6:03 am WST on Saturday 1 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Whim Creek
to Exmouth
The Cyclone WARNING from Wallal to Whim Creek including Port Hedland has been
cancelled.
At 5:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be
365 kilometres northeast of Karratha and
225 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
moving west southwest at 31 kilometres per hour.
The low is moving steadily parallel to the Pilbara coast and may develop into a
tropical cyclone later today.
Gales may develop for a brief period along the central and west Pilbara coast
later today. By Sunday morning the system is likely to be north of Exmouth and
continuing to move towards the west southwest away from the state.
The system is unlikely to cause flooding in the Pilbara due to its rapid
movement and its likely location offshore.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Whim Creek and Fortescue Roadhouse,
including Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier and all other coastal
communities in the above named coastal area should be taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities between Wallal and Whim Creek
including Port Hedland and South Hedland are advised to proceed with caution.
Communities between Fortescue Roadhouse and Exmouth should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 18.4 degrees South 119.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 31 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Saturday 01 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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06U is running out of time.IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 8:56 am WST on Saturday 1 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Whim Creek
to Exmouth
At 8:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be
270 kilometres northeast of Karratha and
180 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
moving west southwest at 33 kilometres per hour.
The low is moving quickly towards the west southwest, parallel to the Pilbara
coast. It has not intensified overnight and now only has a small window of time
in which it may develop into a tropical cyclone before conditions will become
unfavourable. However at this stage there is still a possibility that it will
develop into a tropical cyclone later today.
Gales may develop for a brief period along the central and west Pilbara coast
during the day. By Sunday morning the system is likely to be north of Exmouth
and continuing to move towards the west southwest away from the state.
Flooding is not expected because there is relatively little rain associated
with this small and rapidly moving low.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Whim Creek and Fortescue Roadhouse,
including Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier and all other coastal
communities in the above named coastal area should be taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities between Wallal and Whim Creek
including Port Hedland and South Hedland are advised to proceed with caution.
Communities between Fortescue Roadhouse and Exmouth should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 18.7 degrees South 118.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 33 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Saturday 01 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Perth has dropped its hurricane force and storm wind warnings for this system now.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 8:56 am WST on Saturday 1 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Whim Creek
to Exmouth
At 8:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be
270 kilometres northeast of Karratha and
180 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
moving west southwest at 33 kilometres per hour.
The low is moving quickly towards the west southwest, parallel to the Pilbara
coast. It has not intensified overnight and now only has a small window of time
in which it may develop into a tropical cyclone before conditions will become
unfavourable. However at this stage there is still a possibility that it will
develop into a tropical cyclone later today.
Gales may develop for a brief period along the central and west Pilbara coast
during the day. By Sunday morning the system is likely to be north of Exmouth
and continuing to move towards the west southwest away from the state.
Flooding is not expected because there is relatively little rain associated
with this small and rapidly moving low.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Whim Creek and Fortescue Roadhouse,
including Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Dampier and all other coastal
communities in the above named coastal area should be taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities between Wallal and Whim Creek
including Port Hedland and South Hedland are advised to proceed with caution.
Communities between Fortescue Roadhouse and Exmouth should listen for the next
advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 18.7 degrees South 118.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 33 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Saturday 01 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Perth has dropped its hurricane force and storm wind warnings for this system now.
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AXAU01 APRF 010118
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0117 UTC 01/01/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 18.7S
Longitude: 118.3E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [246 deg]
Speed of Movement: 18 knots [33 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h] reaching 30 knots in the southern
side
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 999 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 50 nm [95 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/1200: 19.6S 114.6E: 075 [140]: 035 [065]: 993
+24: 02/0000: 20.1S 111.2E: 105 [195]: 040 [075]: 989
+36: 02/1200: 20.2S 108.9E: 140 [255]: 035 [065]: 991
+48: 03/0000: 20.4S 107.4E: 170 [315]: 030 [055]: 994
+60: 03/1200: 20.5S 106.0E: 220 [405]: 030 [055]: 994
+72: 04/0000: 20.7S 104.1E: 265 [490]: 030 [055]: 994
REMARKS:
The system was located using VIS imagery, surface observations and Port Hedland
radar, although the rapid translation [18-20 knots] and some shear makes the
location of the low level centre a little tricky. VIS imagery indicates the LLCC
is small and still not organised into circular parallel cloud lines. There is
also no evidence of significant banding and so the FT remains low.
Despite being over warm waters, ongoing moderate shear is hampering development.
Development has also possibly been hampered by the development of a large amount
of convection in the monsoon flow two degrees to the north of the LLCC which is
likely to be robbing the system of inflow and low level convergence. However,
gales are possible on the southern side towards the Pilbara coast within 12
hours aided by the steady 15+knot motion. An anemometer off the coast near Port
Hedland is currently reading around 30-32 knots 10 min mean.
The system has a narrow window for development and may struggle to reach TC
intensity before reaching cooler waters by late Sunday. The system is also
forecast to slow down by Monday, which may actually be a result of some
weakening, but which will also increase system relative shear.
Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track, roughly parallel to
the Pilbara coast due to a strong mid level ridge to the south.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0117 UTC 01/01/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 18.7S
Longitude: 118.3E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [246 deg]
Speed of Movement: 18 knots [33 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h] reaching 30 knots in the southern
side
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 999 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 50 nm [95 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/1200: 19.6S 114.6E: 075 [140]: 035 [065]: 993
+24: 02/0000: 20.1S 111.2E: 105 [195]: 040 [075]: 989
+36: 02/1200: 20.2S 108.9E: 140 [255]: 035 [065]: 991
+48: 03/0000: 20.4S 107.4E: 170 [315]: 030 [055]: 994
+60: 03/1200: 20.5S 106.0E: 220 [405]: 030 [055]: 994
+72: 04/0000: 20.7S 104.1E: 265 [490]: 030 [055]: 994
REMARKS:
The system was located using VIS imagery, surface observations and Port Hedland
radar, although the rapid translation [18-20 knots] and some shear makes the
location of the low level centre a little tricky. VIS imagery indicates the LLCC
is small and still not organised into circular parallel cloud lines. There is
also no evidence of significant banding and so the FT remains low.
Despite being over warm waters, ongoing moderate shear is hampering development.
Development has also possibly been hampered by the development of a large amount
of convection in the monsoon flow two degrees to the north of the LLCC which is
likely to be robbing the system of inflow and low level convergence. However,
gales are possible on the southern side towards the Pilbara coast within 12
hours aided by the steady 15+knot motion. An anemometer off the coast near Port
Hedland is currently reading around 30-32 knots 10 min mean.
The system has a narrow window for development and may struggle to reach TC
intensity before reaching cooler waters by late Sunday. The system is also
forecast to slow down by Monday, which may actually be a result of some
weakening, but which will also increase system relative shear.
Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track, roughly parallel to
the Pilbara coast due to a strong mid level ridge to the south.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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