Latest
SPAC: WILMA (06F/08P) - Tropical Cyclone
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA (06F)
Latest advisory from RSMC Nadi:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 23/0251 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 171.3W AT
230000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 12
KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS, EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS
BY 231800 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24
HOURS.PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATES A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 28C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.7 LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT 3.0 MET=3.0 PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA
SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 231200 UTC 12.7S 170.1W MOV S AT 07 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 240000 UTC 14.4S 170.8W MOV S AT 07 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 241200 UTC 16.3S 172.0W MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 250000 UTC 18.4S 174.0W MOV SSW AT 10 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 230830 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 23/0251 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 171.3W AT
230000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 12
KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS, EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS
BY 231800 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24
HOURS.PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATES A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 28C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.7 LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT 3.0 MET=3.0 PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA
SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 231200 UTC 12.7S 170.1W MOV S AT 07 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 240000 UTC 14.4S 170.8W MOV S AT 07 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 241200 UTC 16.3S 172.0W MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 250000 UTC 18.4S 174.0W MOV SSW AT 10 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 230830 UTC.
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA (06F)
Latest warning from JTWC:
WTPS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 171.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 171.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.5S 171.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.0S 171.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.6S 172.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.7S 175.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 22.9S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 27.8S 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 33.4S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 171.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
230608Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND PHFO RANGING
FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND ENHANCED NORTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF TC 08P, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH, IS
HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH HAS TEMPORARILY STALLED
INTENSIFICATION. TC 08P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TC WILMA IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS PAGO PAGO WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH
FILLS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND SST VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24 AND BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND UNFAVORABLE OHC VALUES WHICH DROP OFF NEAR 25
DEGREES SOUTH. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET) AFTER TAU 72, BUT COULD DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE PRIOR TO COMPLETING ET DUE TO UNFAVORABLE OCEANIC
CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED IN THE
INITIAL TAUS, BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MOST RECENT MODEL TRACKERS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
SHIFT FURTHER WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, DEPICTING A
STRONGER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SHIFT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, FAVORING
A TRACK MORE TO THE WEST AND RECURVING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST
JUST NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND RATHER THEN NORTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 232100Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WTPS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 171.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 171.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.5S 171.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.0S 171.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.6S 172.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.7S 175.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 22.9S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 27.8S 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 33.4S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 171.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
230608Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND PHFO RANGING
FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND ENHANCED NORTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF TC 08P, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH, IS
HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH HAS TEMPORARILY STALLED
INTENSIFICATION. TC 08P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TC WILMA IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS PAGO PAGO WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH
FILLS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND SST VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24 AND BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND UNFAVORABLE OHC VALUES WHICH DROP OFF NEAR 25
DEGREES SOUTH. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET) AFTER TAU 72, BUT COULD DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE PRIOR TO COMPLETING ET DUE TO UNFAVORABLE OCEANIC
CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED IN THE
INITIAL TAUS, BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MOST RECENT MODEL TRACKERS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
SHIFT FURTHER WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, DEPICTING A
STRONGER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SHIFT IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, FAVORING
A TRACK MORE TO THE WEST AND RECURVING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST
JUST NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND RATHER THEN NORTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 232100Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA (06F)
Latest advisory from Nadi:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 23/0852 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 171.3W AT
230600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 09 KNOTS. CYCLONE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS, EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS BY 240000 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
SYSTEM HAS BECOMING DISORGANISED WITH LLCC INCREASINGLY BECOMING
CLOUD FILLED. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INHIBITED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.
PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATES A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 28C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED SHEAR PATTERN YIELDING DT 3.0
MET=3.0 PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL
MODELS MOVE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 231800 UTC 13.6S 170.1W MOV S AT 09 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 240600 UTC 15.7S 171.0W MOV S AT 10 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 241800 UTC 18.0S 173.1W MOV SSW AT 11 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 250600 UTC 20.5S 175.5W MOV SSW AT 13 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 231430 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 23/0852 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 171.3W AT
230600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 09 KNOTS. CYCLONE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS, EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS BY 240000 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
SYSTEM HAS BECOMING DISORGANISED WITH LLCC INCREASINGLY BECOMING
CLOUD FILLED. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INHIBITED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.
PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATES A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 28C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED SHEAR PATTERN YIELDING DT 3.0
MET=3.0 PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL
MODELS MOVE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 231800 UTC 13.6S 170.1W MOV S AT 09 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 240600 UTC 15.7S 171.0W MOV S AT 10 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 241800 UTC 18.0S 173.1W MOV SSW AT 11 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 250600 UTC 20.5S 175.5W MOV SSW AT 13 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 231430 UTC.
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 23/1402 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 171.0W AT
231200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 13
KNOTS. CYCLONE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS BY 240000UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
SYSTEM OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LAST 24 HOURS WITH
LLCC BECOMING CLOUD FILLED. CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED IN THE PAST
6 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATES A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 28C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.7 LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT 3.0 MET=3.5 PT=3.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE CYCLONE WILMA SOUTHWEST
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 240000 UTC 14.7S 171.2W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 241200 UTC 16.8S 172.3W MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 250000 UTC 19.0S 174.4W MOV SW AT 10 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 251200 UTC 20.9S 176.9W MOV SW AT 13 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 232030 UTC.
Jan 23/1402 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 171.0W AT
231200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 13
KNOTS. CYCLONE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS BY 240000UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
SYSTEM OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LAST 24 HOURS WITH
LLCC BECOMING CLOUD FILLED. CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED IN THE PAST
6 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATES A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 28C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.7 LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT 3.0 MET=3.5 PT=3.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE CYCLONE WILMA SOUTHWEST
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 240000 UTC 14.7S 171.2W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 241200 UTC 16.8S 172.3W MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 250000 UTC 19.0S 174.4W MOV SW AT 10 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 251200 UTC 20.9S 176.9W MOV SW AT 13 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 232030 UTC.
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There is some good convection in the last few hours but I still don't think it looks quite as good as it did say 12-18hrs ago...
Still its a decent system to watch...
Still its a decent system to watch...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 23/2005 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 171.0W AT
231800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12
KNOTS. CYCLONE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS BY 240600UTC AND 50 KNOTS BY 241800UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTb.
SYSTEM OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS STEADY LAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION AND UNDER A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CIMSS INDICATES DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST TRACK.
SST AROUND 29C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.65 LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING
DT 3.0 MET=3.0 PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE CYCLONE WILMA SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 240600 UTC 16.1S 171.7W MOV SSW AT 12 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 241800 UTC 18.4S 173.6W MOV SW AT 14 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 250600 UTC 20.6S 176.0W MOV SW AT 15 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 22.6S 178.4W MOV SW AT 15 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 242030 UTC.
Jan 23/2005 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 171.0W AT
231800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12
KNOTS. CYCLONE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS BY 240600UTC AND 50 KNOTS BY 241800UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTb.
SYSTEM OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS STEADY LAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION AND UNDER A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CIMSS INDICATES DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST TRACK.
SST AROUND 29C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.65 LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING
DT 3.0 MET=3.0 PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE CYCLONE WILMA SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 240600 UTC 16.1S 171.7W MOV SSW AT 12 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 241800 UTC 18.4S 173.6W MOV SW AT 14 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 250600 UTC 20.6S 176.0W MOV SW AT 15 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 22.6S 178.4W MOV SW AT 15 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 242030 UTC.
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-
Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA (06F)
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 24/0923 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 171.1W AT
240600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 11 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 65 KNOTS BY 250000 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED IN THE LAST 12
HOURS WITH CONVECTION INCREASING NEAR LLCC. PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING
AROUND LLCC FROM THE SOUTH. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH BUT
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. MJO ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EQUITORIAL ROSSBY WAVE
OVER THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS
INDICATES A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 28C. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.9 LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT 3.5 MET=3.5 PT=3.5.
FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE
CYCLONE WILMA SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 241800 UTC 17.6S 172.8W MOV SW AT 12 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 250600 UTC 19.2S 175.2W MOV SW AT 13 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 20.6S 177.8W MOV SW AT 13 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 21.6S 180.0 MOV SW AT 13 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 231430 UTC.
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-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 24/1418 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 171.5W AT
241200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 11 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 65 KNOTS BY 250000UTC. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN
50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRLE AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES
OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AROUND THE LLCC DUE TO CLOUD TOP WARMING IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND TIGHTLY WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW
GOOD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BUT DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATES A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE CYCLONE'S PROJECTED PATH. SST AROUND 28C.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.8 LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT 3.5 MET=4.0
PT=4.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS
MOVE CYCLONE WILMA SOUTHWEST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 250000 UTC 19.0S 174.0W MOV SW AT 15 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 251200 UTC 20.7S 176.7W MOV SW AT 15 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 260000 UTC 22.0S 179.0W MOV WSW AT 12 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 23.0S 179.6E MOV SW AT 10 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 232030 UTC.
Jan 24/1418 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 171.5W AT
241200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 11 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 65 KNOTS BY 250000UTC. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN
50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRLE AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES
OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AROUND THE LLCC DUE TO CLOUD TOP WARMING IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND TIGHTLY WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW
GOOD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BUT DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATES A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE CYCLONE'S PROJECTED PATH. SST AROUND 28C.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.8 LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT 3.5 MET=4.0
PT=4.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS
MOVE CYCLONE WILMA SOUTHWEST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 250000 UTC 19.0S 174.0W MOV SW AT 15 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 251200 UTC 20.7S 176.7W MOV SW AT 15 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 260000 UTC 22.0S 179.0W MOV WSW AT 12 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 23.0S 179.6E MOV SW AT 10 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 232030 UTC.
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