SPAC: WILMA (06F/08P) - Tropical Cyclone

[Sheronz]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 19/0901 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F [1004 HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.2S 178.6W AT
190600UTC AND IS SLOW MOVING.

ORGANISATION IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY
INCREASED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A WEAK SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCUALTION IS FROM SURFACE TO 500 HPA. SST IS
AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP AND GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM AND
SLOWLY MOVING IT EASTWARD.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

[Sheronz]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 19/2251 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F [1004 HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 11.9S 178.7W AT
192100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATION.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
AND UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CYCLONIC CIRCUALTION EXTENDS TO 500 HPA. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVING IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

[Crostorm]

[RobWESTPACWX]

Getting more organized now,

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 20/0848 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F [1002 HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.7S 178.2W
AT 200600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PRESISTENT PAST 24 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN
QUADRANT IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CYCLONIC CIRCUALTION EXTENDS TO 500 HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Continues to organize

[HURAKAN]

ABPW10 PGTW 201300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201300Z-210600ZJAN2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.6S 178.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 440 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO BUILD OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A LLCC IS EVIDENT IN BOTH ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 192143Z ASCAT PASS. AT 20/00Z AN
AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM WALLIS ISLAND (NLWW), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 2 DEGREES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC, LOGGED SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE (SLP) AT 1004 MB WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. A MORE RECENT 20/12Z SHIP OBSERVATION FROM
THE PACIFIC GAS (YJCZ5), LOCATED AT 15.5S 176.1W, DOCUMENTS SLP AT
1006 MB WITH WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AT 25 KNOTS. THE REGION IS HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS BASED ON THE ABOVE ASCAT.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB BASED ON
THE ABOVE OBSERVATIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED THE AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS
POOR.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[Sheronz]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 20/2321 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F [1003 HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.7S 177.1W
AT 202100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR/EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT
REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCUALTION
EXTENDS TO 500 HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

[KWT]

Whilst convection is still flaring up and down the organisation is pretty decent for this stage.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to wrap

[Crostorm]

ABPW10 PGTW 210130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/210130Z-210600ZJAN2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
178.0W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 175.4W, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST
OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIM,
HAS DEEPENED FURTHER AND BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING READILY APPARENT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 202124 AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITH LIGHT (10-
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(GREATER THAN 28C). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED EASTWARD
BY A LOW LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS
IN BRINGING THE CYCLONE FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 06-24 HOURS
THEN DEFLECTING IT SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE GROWS AND A MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSUMES STEERING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THESE ARE SUPPORTED
BY NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND A 202123Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS OVER
THE SYSTEM. IN VIEW OF THE OVERALL IMPROVED VERTICAL STRUCTURE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
FAIR.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F [1001 HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.7S 176.9W
AT 210900 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED OVER THE CENTRE IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCUALTION EXTENDS TO 500 HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

[HURAKAN]

21/0822 UTC 14.3S 175.0W T2.0/2.0 95P -- Southeast Pacific

30 knots

------------------------------------------
TXPS23 KNES 210848


A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95P)

B. 21/0822Z

C. 14.3S

D. 175.0W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION MEASURES 4/10 RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.5. MET IS
1.0 WHILE PT IS 1.5...NEITHER OF WHICH IS CONSIDERED REPRESENTATIVE. FT
BASED ON TRADITIONAL DVORAK CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGES IN FT TO 0.5
OVER 6 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

21/0519Z 14.7S 175.2W SSMIS


...TURK

[HURAKAN]

WTPS21 PGTW 211700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0S 175.3W TO 13.8S 171.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 211200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 174.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
175.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 174.9W, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
WEST OF PAGO PAGO. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION NOW YIELDS A DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 2.0 OR 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. THE SYSTEM
LACKS PRONOUNCED BANDING IN MORE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, BUT DOES
SHOW SIGNS OF TURNING IN A 210807Z SSMIS 91H IMAGE. SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE (SLP) FROM TAFITOALA, WESTERN SAMOA (91769) HAS DROPPED 2.2
MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AS OF 1324Z SLP WAS 1003.9 MB. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION WITH SUFFICIENT
VENTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AND RANGE FROM 28
TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 221700Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Sheronz]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 21/2013 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F [1001 HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S 174.5W
AT 211800 UTC. TD06F MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 7 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH PAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES
ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMMS
INDICATE A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCUALTION
EXTENDS TO 500 HPA. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 LOG 10 SPIRAL
YIELDING DT 2.0 MET=2.0 PT=2.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE TD06F SOUTHEAST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IN MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD06F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
220200 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest - NRL: 08P