TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 31
Issued at 2:35 am WST on Friday 28 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for communities from Exmouth to Coral Bay.
At 2:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
260 kilometres west of Exmouth and
275 kilometres northwest of Coral Bay and
moving southwest at 24 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to move in a southwest direction and
is moving away from the coast. DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per
hour are possible for a period between Exmouth and Coral Bay early Friday
morning before conditions ease as the cyclone moves further away from the coast.
Heavy rain is possible in isolated areas near the coast between Karratha and
Coral Bay. This could produce localised stream rises but widespread flooding is
not expected. Strong and squally winds are still possible between Cape Preston
and Exmouth though conditions will ease from the east during Friday.
Tides will be higher than normal between Exmouth and Onslow, but flooding of
low-lying coastal areas is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Exmouth including surrounding mines and pastoral
leases need to go to shelter immediately.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Exmouth
and Coral Bay, including the town of Coral Bay and all surrounding communities,
mines and pastoral leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an
emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries,
food and water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow
and Mardie, including Onslow and Mardie are advised that wind dangers have
passed and people should proceed with caution.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 21.7 degrees South 111.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 24 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 220 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 950 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Friday 28 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
SIO: BIANCA (12U/10S) - Tropical Cyclone
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 32
Issued at 5:39 am WST on Friday 28 January 2011
The Cyclone WARNING for communities from Exmouth to Coral Bay has been
cancelled.
At 5:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
325 kilometres west of Exmouth and
300 kilometres west northwest of Coral Bay and
moving southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to move in a southwest direction away
from the coast and damaging winds are no longer expected.
Strong and gusty winds are still possible in areas between Cape Preston and
Carnarvon though winds will ease from the east during the day.
Tides will be higher than normal today between Exmouth and Onslow, but flooding
of low-lying coastal areas is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in or near Exmouth and Coral Bay are advised
that wind dangers have passed and people should proceed with caution.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 22.3 degrees South 111.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 220 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 950 hectoPascals
No further advices are expected to be issued for this system.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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HURAKAN
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SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 009
WTXS33 PGTW 272100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 22.2S 111.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 111.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.7S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 27.3S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 29.8S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 31.9S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 111.1E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 33
Issued at 9:25 am WST on Friday 28 January 2011
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Jurien Bay to Albany,
including Perth, Bunbury and Busselton.
At 8:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
410 kilometres west southwest of Exmouth and
400 kilometres west northwest of Carnarvon and
moving southwest at 33 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to move in a southwest direction away
from the northwest of the state. Strong and gusty winds are still possible in
areas between Cape Preston and Carnarvon though winds will ease from the east
during the day.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca is expected to gradually weaken as it takes a
more southerly track overnight. On Saturday Bianca will move in a southeasterly
direction towards the southwest corner of the state while weakening steadily.
However there is a significant risk that Bianca will maintain tropical cyclone
intensity as it approaches the coast early on Sunday. If this scenario
eventuates, coastal areas between Jurien Bay and Albany could experience
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
On Sunday tides between Jurien Bay and Cape Naturaliste are likely to rise
signficantly above the normal high tide mark with VERY ROUGH SEAS, DANGEROUS
SURF and FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL EROSION is
possible. Heavy rainfall is also possible on the southern side of the system.
FLASH FLOODING is possible but extensive flooding is not expected.
SEVERE to EXTREME FIRE DANGERS are likely across a broad area south of a line
from Geraldton to Esperance on Sunday.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in or near Exmouth and Coral Bay are advised
that wind dangers have passed and people should proceed with caution.
People in the southwest of the state should listen for further advice during
today.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 23.0 degrees South 110.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 33 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 220 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 951 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Friday 28 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 9:25 am WST on Friday 28 January 2011
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Jurien Bay to Albany,
including Perth, Bunbury and Busselton.
At 8:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
410 kilometres west southwest of Exmouth and
400 kilometres west northwest of Carnarvon and
moving southwest at 33 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to move in a southwest direction away
from the northwest of the state. Strong and gusty winds are still possible in
areas between Cape Preston and Carnarvon though winds will ease from the east
during the day.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca is expected to gradually weaken as it takes a
more southerly track overnight. On Saturday Bianca will move in a southeasterly
direction towards the southwest corner of the state while weakening steadily.
However there is a significant risk that Bianca will maintain tropical cyclone
intensity as it approaches the coast early on Sunday. If this scenario
eventuates, coastal areas between Jurien Bay and Albany could experience
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
On Sunday tides between Jurien Bay and Cape Naturaliste are likely to rise
signficantly above the normal high tide mark with VERY ROUGH SEAS, DANGEROUS
SURF and FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL EROSION is
possible. Heavy rainfall is also possible on the southern side of the system.
FLASH FLOODING is possible but extensive flooding is not expected.
SEVERE to EXTREME FIRE DANGERS are likely across a broad area south of a line
from Geraldton to Esperance on Sunday.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in or near Exmouth and Coral Bay are advised
that wind dangers have passed and people should proceed with caution.
People in the southwest of the state should listen for further advice during
today.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 23.0 degrees South 110.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 33 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 220 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 951 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Friday 28 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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Re: SIO: SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BIANCA (10S)
Very impressive microwave! The predictions of a very active Australian season are verifying, it's intresting to see how this basin has been so active and the Southwest Indian so inactive.
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HURAKAN
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Re: SIO: SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BIANCA (10S)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 34
Issued at 12:14 pm WST on Friday 28 January 2011
CYCLONE BIANCA EXPECTED TO IMPACT COMMUNITIES IN THE SOUTH WEST OF WESTERN
AUSTRALIA ON SUNDAY
Bianca will weaken significantly before it reaches the South West but residents
should prepare for:
. DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
. VERY ROUGH SEAS and DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
. COASTAL EROSION and FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS
. SEVERE to EXTREME FIRE DANGERS
. HEAVY RAINFALL south of the cyclone with possible LOCALISED FLOODING.
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Jurien Bay to Albany,
including Perth, Bunbury and Busselton.
At 11:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
510 kilometres west southwest of Exmouth and
465 kilometres west northwest of Carnarvon and
moving southwest at 33 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to move in a southwest direction away
from the northwest of the state. Strong and gusty winds are still possible in
areas between Cape Preston and Carnarvon though winds will ease from the east
during the day.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca is expected to gradually weaken as it takes a
more southerly track overnight. On Saturday Bianca will move in a southeasterly
direction towards the southwest corner of the state while weakening steadily.
However there is a significant risk that Bianca will maintain tropical cyclone
intensity as it approaches the coast early on Sunday. If this happens, coastal
areas between Jurien Bay and Albany could experience DAMAGING WINDS with gusts
to 120 kilometres per hour. Wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may be
experienced through inland parts southwest of a line Jurien Bay to Albany.
On Sunday tides between Jurien Bay and Cape Naturaliste are likely to rise
significantly above the normal high tide mark with VERY ROUGH SEAS, DANGEROUS
SURF and FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL EROSION is
possible. HEAVY RAINFALL is also possible on the southern side of the system.
LOCALISED FLOODING is possible but extensive flooding is not expected.
VERY HIGH to SEVERE FIRE DANGERS are likely near the west coast on Sunday.
EXTREME to CATASTROPHIC FIRE DANGERS are likely across inland areas south of a
line from Geraldton to Leonora to Israelite Bay on Sunday.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises that people should start planning
for bad weather and listen for further advice during today.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 11:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 23.3 degrees South 109.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 33 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 220 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 953 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Friday 28 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 12:14 pm WST on Friday 28 January 2011
CYCLONE BIANCA EXPECTED TO IMPACT COMMUNITIES IN THE SOUTH WEST OF WESTERN
AUSTRALIA ON SUNDAY
Bianca will weaken significantly before it reaches the South West but residents
should prepare for:
. DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
. VERY ROUGH SEAS and DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
. COASTAL EROSION and FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS
. SEVERE to EXTREME FIRE DANGERS
. HEAVY RAINFALL south of the cyclone with possible LOCALISED FLOODING.
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Jurien Bay to Albany,
including Perth, Bunbury and Busselton.
At 11:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
510 kilometres west southwest of Exmouth and
465 kilometres west northwest of Carnarvon and
moving southwest at 33 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to move in a southwest direction away
from the northwest of the state. Strong and gusty winds are still possible in
areas between Cape Preston and Carnarvon though winds will ease from the east
during the day.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca is expected to gradually weaken as it takes a
more southerly track overnight. On Saturday Bianca will move in a southeasterly
direction towards the southwest corner of the state while weakening steadily.
However there is a significant risk that Bianca will maintain tropical cyclone
intensity as it approaches the coast early on Sunday. If this happens, coastal
areas between Jurien Bay and Albany could experience DAMAGING WINDS with gusts
to 120 kilometres per hour. Wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may be
experienced through inland parts southwest of a line Jurien Bay to Albany.
On Sunday tides between Jurien Bay and Cape Naturaliste are likely to rise
significantly above the normal high tide mark with VERY ROUGH SEAS, DANGEROUS
SURF and FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL EROSION is
possible. HEAVY RAINFALL is also possible on the southern side of the system.
LOCALISED FLOODING is possible but extensive flooding is not expected.
VERY HIGH to SEVERE FIRE DANGERS are likely near the west coast on Sunday.
EXTREME to CATASTROPHIC FIRE DANGERS are likely across inland areas south of a
line from Geraldton to Leonora to Israelite Bay on Sunday.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises that people should start planning
for bad weather and listen for further advice during today.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 11:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 23.3 degrees South 109.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 33 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 220 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 953 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Friday 28 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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Crostorm
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Re: SIO: SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BIANCA (10S)
28/0832 UTC 24.4S 108.5E T5.0/5.5 BIANCA -- Southeast Indian
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0723 UTC 28/01/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 23.9S
Longitude: 108.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [229 deg]
Speed of Movement: 17 knots [31 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Central Pressure: 950 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/1800: 26.4S 107.8E: 050 [095]: 070 [130]: 962
+24: 29/0600: 29.3S 108.6E: 080 [150]: 060 [110]: 973
+36: 29/1800: 31.6S 111.6E: 110 [210]: 045 [085]: 980
+48: 30/0600: 33.1S 116.7E: 145 [270]: 030 [055]: 990
+60: 30/1800: : : :
+72: 31/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Dvorak EIR analysis produced DT 6.0 over several images during the morning.
Final intensity is held at 10-min 85 knots.
The system is likely to maintain intensity or weaken only slightly over the next
12 hours before cooler SSTs and increasing shear leads to rapid weakening as it
approaches the SW coast.
There is significant uncertainty regarding the intensity of the system as it
impacts the coast with many models indicating the system will fall apart just
off the coast as the strong southeasterlies from the new high push in and
markedly increase the shear. However a number of runs have indicated the system
may reach the coast with gale force winds and other associated impacts.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0723 UTC 28/01/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 23.9S
Longitude: 108.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [229 deg]
Speed of Movement: 17 knots [31 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Central Pressure: 950 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/1800: 26.4S 107.8E: 050 [095]: 070 [130]: 962
+24: 29/0600: 29.3S 108.6E: 080 [150]: 060 [110]: 973
+36: 29/1800: 31.6S 111.6E: 110 [210]: 045 [085]: 980
+48: 30/0600: 33.1S 116.7E: 145 [270]: 030 [055]: 990
+60: 30/1800: : : :
+72: 31/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Dvorak EIR analysis produced DT 6.0 over several images during the morning.
Final intensity is held at 10-min 85 knots.
The system is likely to maintain intensity or weaken only slightly over the next
12 hours before cooler SSTs and increasing shear leads to rapid weakening as it
approaches the SW coast.
There is significant uncertainty regarding the intensity of the system as it
impacts the coast with many models indicating the system will fall apart just
off the coast as the strong southeasterlies from the new high push in and
markedly increase the shear. However a number of runs have indicated the system
may reach the coast with gale force winds and other associated impacts.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
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- Contact:
Re: SIO: SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BIANCA (10S)
IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 36
Issued at 5:43 pm WST on Friday 28 January 2011
CYCLONE BIANCA EXPECTED TO IMPACT COMMUNITIES IN THE SOUTH WEST OF WESTERN
AUSTRALIA ON SUNDAY
Bianca will weaken significantly before it reaches the South West. However
there is a significant risk that it will retain cyclone intensity so people
should prepare for:
. DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour
. VERY ROUGH SEAS and DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
. COASTAL EROSION and FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS
. SEVERE to CATASTROPHIC FIRE DANGERS
. HEAVY RAINFALL south of the cyclone with possible LOCALISED FLOODING.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Jurien Bay to Albany,
including Perth, Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton.
At 5:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 4 was estimated to be
545 kilometres west of Carnarvon and
1110 kilometres northwest of Perth and
moving southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to move in a southwest direction away
from the northwest of the state.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca is expected to gradually weaken as it takes a
more southerly track overnight. On Saturday Bianca will move in a southeasterly
direction towards the southwest corner of the state while weakening steadily.
However there is a significant risk that Bianca will maintain tropical cyclone
intensity as it approaches the coast early on Sunday. If this happens, coastal
areas between Jurien Bay and Albany could experience DAMAGING WINDS with gusts
to 120 kilometres per hour. Wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may be
experienced through inland parts southwest of a line Jurien Bay to Albany.
On Sunday tides between Jurien Bay and Cape Naturaliste are likely to rise
significantly above the normal high tide mark with VERY ROUGH SEAS, DANGEROUS
SURF and FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL EROSION is
possible. HEAVY RAINFALL is also possible on the southern side of the system.
LOCALISED FLOODING is possible but extensive flooding is not expected.
VERY HIGH to SEVERE FIRE DANGERS are likely near the west coast on Sunday.
EXTREME to CATASTROPHIC FIRE DANGERS are likely across inland areas south of a
line from Geraldton to Leonora to Israelite Bay on Sunday.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises that people should start planning
for bad weather and listen for further advice.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 24.5 degrees South 108.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 945 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Friday 28 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 36
Issued at 5:43 pm WST on Friday 28 January 2011
CYCLONE BIANCA EXPECTED TO IMPACT COMMUNITIES IN THE SOUTH WEST OF WESTERN
AUSTRALIA ON SUNDAY
Bianca will weaken significantly before it reaches the South West. However
there is a significant risk that it will retain cyclone intensity so people
should prepare for:
. DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour
. VERY ROUGH SEAS and DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
. COASTAL EROSION and FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS
. SEVERE to CATASTROPHIC FIRE DANGERS
. HEAVY RAINFALL south of the cyclone with possible LOCALISED FLOODING.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Jurien Bay to Albany,
including Perth, Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton.
At 5:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 4 was estimated to be
545 kilometres west of Carnarvon and
1110 kilometres northwest of Perth and
moving southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to move in a southwest direction away
from the northwest of the state.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca is expected to gradually weaken as it takes a
more southerly track overnight. On Saturday Bianca will move in a southeasterly
direction towards the southwest corner of the state while weakening steadily.
However there is a significant risk that Bianca will maintain tropical cyclone
intensity as it approaches the coast early on Sunday. If this happens, coastal
areas between Jurien Bay and Albany could experience DAMAGING WINDS with gusts
to 120 kilometres per hour. Wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may be
experienced through inland parts southwest of a line Jurien Bay to Albany.
On Sunday tides between Jurien Bay and Cape Naturaliste are likely to rise
significantly above the normal high tide mark with VERY ROUGH SEAS, DANGEROUS
SURF and FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL EROSION is
possible. HEAVY RAINFALL is also possible on the southern side of the system.
LOCALISED FLOODING is possible but extensive flooding is not expected.
VERY HIGH to SEVERE FIRE DANGERS are likely near the west coast on Sunday.
EXTREME to CATASTROPHIC FIRE DANGERS are likely across inland areas south of a
line from Geraldton to Leonora to Israelite Bay on Sunday.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises that people should start planning
for bad weather and listen for further advice.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 24.5 degrees South 108.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 945 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Friday 28 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 37
Issued at 8:39 pm WST on Friday 28 January 2011
CYCLONE BIANCA EXPECTED TO IMPACT COMMUNITIES IN THE SOUTH WEST OF WESTERN
AUSTRALIA ON SUNDAY
Bianca will weaken significantly before it reaches the South West. However
there is a significant risk that it will retain cyclone intensity so people
should prepare for:
. DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour
. VERY ROUGH SEAS and DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
. COASTAL EROSION and FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS
. SEVERE to CATASTROPHIC FIRE DANGERS
. HEAVY RAINFALL south of the cyclone with possible LOCALISED FLOODING.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Jurien Bay to Albany,
including Perth, Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton.
At 8:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 4 was estimated to be
540 kilometres west of Carnarvon and
1090 kilometres northwest of Perth and
moving south southwest at 20 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca is moving towards the south southwest and is
well away from WA mainland.
Bianca is expected to gradually weaken as it takes a more southerly track
overnight. On Saturday Bianca will move in a southeasterly direction towards
the southwest corner of the state while weakening steadily. However there is a
significant risk that Bianca will maintain tropical cyclone intensity as it
approaches the coast during Sunday. If this happens, coastal areas between
Jurien Bay and Albany could experience DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120
kilometres per hour. Wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may be experienced
through inland parts southwest of a line Jurien Bay to Albany.
On Sunday tides between Jurien Bay and Cape Naturaliste are likely to rise
significantly above the normal high tide mark with VERY ROUGH SEAS, DANGEROUS
SURF and FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL EROSION is
possible. HEAVY RAINFALL is also possible on the southern side of the system.
LOCALISED FLOODING is possible but extensive flooding is not expected.
VERY HIGH to SEVERE FIRE DANGERS are likely near the west coast on Sunday.
EXTREME to CATASTROPHIC FIRE DANGERS are likely across inland areas south of a
line from Geraldton to Leonora to Israelite Bay on Sunday.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises that people should start planning
for bad weather and listen for further advice.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 24.8 degrees South 108.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 20 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 945 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Saturday 29 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 8:39 pm WST on Friday 28 January 2011
CYCLONE BIANCA EXPECTED TO IMPACT COMMUNITIES IN THE SOUTH WEST OF WESTERN
AUSTRALIA ON SUNDAY
Bianca will weaken significantly before it reaches the South West. However
there is a significant risk that it will retain cyclone intensity so people
should prepare for:
. DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour
. VERY ROUGH SEAS and DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
. COASTAL EROSION and FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS
. SEVERE to CATASTROPHIC FIRE DANGERS
. HEAVY RAINFALL south of the cyclone with possible LOCALISED FLOODING.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Jurien Bay to Albany,
including Perth, Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton.
At 8:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 4 was estimated to be
540 kilometres west of Carnarvon and
1090 kilometres northwest of Perth and
moving south southwest at 20 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca is moving towards the south southwest and is
well away from WA mainland.
Bianca is expected to gradually weaken as it takes a more southerly track
overnight. On Saturday Bianca will move in a southeasterly direction towards
the southwest corner of the state while weakening steadily. However there is a
significant risk that Bianca will maintain tropical cyclone intensity as it
approaches the coast during Sunday. If this happens, coastal areas between
Jurien Bay and Albany could experience DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120
kilometres per hour. Wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may be experienced
through inland parts southwest of a line Jurien Bay to Albany.
On Sunday tides between Jurien Bay and Cape Naturaliste are likely to rise
significantly above the normal high tide mark with VERY ROUGH SEAS, DANGEROUS
SURF and FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL EROSION is
possible. HEAVY RAINFALL is also possible on the southern side of the system.
LOCALISED FLOODING is possible but extensive flooding is not expected.
VERY HIGH to SEVERE FIRE DANGERS are likely near the west coast on Sunday.
EXTREME to CATASTROPHIC FIRE DANGERS are likely across inland areas south of a
line from Geraldton to Leonora to Israelite Bay on Sunday.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises that people should start planning
for bad weather and listen for further advice.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 24.8 degrees South 108.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 20 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 945 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Saturday 29 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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