SPAC: ANTHONY (11U/09P) - Tropical Cyclone

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jan 21, 2011 4:17 pm

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough remains active across north Queensland and the northern Coral
Sea. A low situated over north Queensland is likely to move into the Coral Sea
while the monsoon trough strengthens over the next couple days.

Saturday: Low
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: Moderate

#2 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jan 21, 2011 9:16 pm

Consensus

#3 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jan 21, 2011 9:18 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.5S 146.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 40 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT RADAR
IMAGERY FROM THE CAIRNS STATION SHOWS BROAD TURNING IN THE AREA AND
A 211537Z 37GHZ AMSRE IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING
OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT REGION. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INHIBITION OF OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM BUT WELL-DEVELOPED OUTFLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. SATELLITE-
DERIVED ESTIMATES OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE REGION ARE
FAVORABLE AT 32 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

#4 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jan 22, 2011 8:36 am

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough remains active across north Queensland and the northern Coral
Sea. A low situated off the north tropical coast within the monsoon trough is
likely to move further offshore and strengthen over the next few days.

Sunday: Moderate
Monday: Moderate
Tuesday: Moderate

#5 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jan 22, 2011 8:37 am

Latest

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jan 22, 2011 6:25 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2308 UTC 22/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anthony
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 2100 UTC
Latitude: 15.3S
Longitude: 148.2E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: east [080 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 75 nm [140 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 23/0900: 15.8S 151.0E: 045 [085]: 040 [075]: 992
+24: 23/2100: 16.8S 154.1E: 075 [140]: 045 [085]: 987
+36: 24/0900: 17.3S 156.2E: 110 [200]: 050 [095]: 985
+48: 24/2100: 17.7S 157.2E: 140 [260]: 050 [095]: 983
+60: 25/0900: 17.6S 157.3E: 190 [345]: 055 [100]: 980
+72: 25/2100: 17.1S 156.8E: 235 [435]: 060 [110]: 975
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Anthony has developed rapidly during the morning under a more
favourable upper atmospheric environment, while moving rapidly to the east away
from the Australian coast. Radar images from Willis Island [to the southeast]
suggest a tight low level circulation with peripheral observations on southern
and southwest flank now suggesting gales.

System likely to intensify and move east-southeast during the short to medium
term under the influence of an upper trough over the Coral Sea. Curved band
pattern suggest DT 3.0, MET 2.5 using DT as FT 3.0.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/0100 UTC by Brisbane

#7 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jan 22, 2011 6:26 pm

Track

#8 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jan 22, 2011 6:27 pm

Latest visible

#9 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jan 22, 2011 6:32 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S
146.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 146.4E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP FROM CAIRNS AUSTRALIA DEPICT A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND LOW (<10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE
DERIVED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND SST PRODUCTS INDICATE WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>30 DEGREES C) AND FAVORABLE OHC VALUES JUST
OFF SHORE OF CAIRNS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL AND
OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

#10 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jan 22, 2011 8:11 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0038 UTC 23/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anthony
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.5S
Longitude: 148.9E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: east [099 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [24 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 75 nm [140 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 23/1200: 16.1S 151.8E: 045 [085]: 045 [085]: 987
+24: 24/0000: 17.1S 154.8E: 075 [140]: 055 [100]: 980
+36: 24/1200: 17.6S 156.6E: 110 [200]: 055 [100]: 979
+48: 25/0000: 17.9S 157.3E: 140 [260]: 055 [100]: 977
+60: 25/1200: 17.6S 157.2E: 190 [345]: 050 [095]: 980
+72: 26/0000: 17.1S 156.7E: 235 [435]: 050 [095]: 981
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Anthony has developed rapidly during the morning under a more
favourable upper atmospheric environment, while moving rapidly to the east away
from the Australian coast. Radar images from Willis Island [to the southeast]
suggest a tight low level circulation with peripheral observations on southern
and southwest flank now suggesting gales.

System likely to intensify and move east-southeast during the short to medium
term under the influence of an upper trough over the Coral Sea. Curved band
pattern suggest DT 3.0, MET 2.5 using DT as FT 3.0.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

#11 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jan 22, 2011 8:12 pm

Latest map

Chacor · #12 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Jan 22, 2011 8:30 pm

09P.NINE on NRL.

#13 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jan 22, 2011 9:06 pm

Latest visible

#14 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jan 22, 2011 9:30 pm

Looking good

#15 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jan 22, 2011 9:52 pm

WTPS32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 148.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 148.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.9S 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.8S 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.4S 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.2S 157.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.6S 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.5S 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.2S 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 149.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (ANTHONY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR FROM WILLIS ISLAND DEPICT TIGHTLY WRAPPED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THERE WAS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE RADAR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, NEARBY OBSERVATION STATIONS ARE
REPORTING SEA LEVEL PRESSURES AS LOW AS 997 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 09P IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC ANTHONY IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND TAU 36 WHEN A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE. AT THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW UNDER A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THEN TRACK BACK WESTWARD. TC 09P
SHOULD INITIALLY INTENSIFY DUE TO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH, THEN
SHOULD STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
EXCEPT FOR WBAR, GFDN, AND UKMO WHICH CONTINUE TRACKING THE SYSTEM
EASTWARD. THIS IS UNLIKELY BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

#16 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jan 22, 2011 9:53 pm

Consensus

#17 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Sun Jan 23, 2011 2:03 am

Got a video on this one! As usual I give storm 2k a shoutout, let me know what you guys think here and how you feel on this storm swinging back around towards Queensland.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PAzdm5lIUAY[/youtube]

Crostorm · #18 Postby **Crostorm** » Sun Jan 23, 2011 4:14 am

Macrocane · #19 Postby **Macrocane** » Sun Jan 23, 2011 8:30 am

Latest bulletin from the BOM:

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1237 UTC 23/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anthony
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.5S
Longitude: 153.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [108 deg]
Speed of Movement: 25 knots [47 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 165 nm [305 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 135 nm [250 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 135 nm [250 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 165 nm [305 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 24/0000: 17.8S 156.9E: 060 [110]: 055 [100]: 981
+24: 24/1200: 18.5S 159.2E: 090 [165]: 055 [100]: 976
+36: 25/0000: 19.0S 159.8E: 120 [225]: 055 [100]: 973
+48: 25/1200: 18.9S 159.6E: 155 [285]: 050 [095]: 977
+60: 26/0000: 18.7S 158.2E: 200 [375]: 050 [095]: 979
+72: 26/1200: 18.1S 156.4E: 250 [465]: 050 [095]: 980
REMARKS:
Current location determined by MTSAT IR. Willis Island radar out of range and
lack of adequate microwave coverage.

Lack of organized deep convection suggests system remains weak, suffering shear
with proximity to upper trough.

IR curved band pattern with 0.6 arc suggests DT 3.0, consistent with MET.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

Crostorm · #20 Postby **Crostorm** » Sun Jan 23, 2011 8:49 am

SPAC: ANTHONY (11U/09P) - Tropical Cyclone

SPAC: ANTHONY (11U/09P) - Tropical Cyclone

Re: SPO: TROPICAL LOW (97P)

Re: SPO: TROPICAL LOW (97P)

Re: SPO: TROPICAL LOW (97P)

Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ANTHONY (97P)

Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ANTHONY (97P)

Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ANTHONY (97P)

Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ANTHONY (97P)

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