SPAC: ZAKA (10F/12P) - Tropical Cyclone
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Interesting, developing a similar look to a system you'd see in the N.Atlantic, I'd go with 55kts right now despite fairly shallow convection.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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senorpepr
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Nadi has handed off Zaka to Wellington...
WTNZ41 NZKL 061935
STORM WARNING 102
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE ZAKA 987HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7 SOUTH
177.2 WEST AT 061800 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 25.7S 177.2W AT 061800 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST 20 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE RISING TO 50
KNOTS BY 070600 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 120
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST TO NORTH.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 29.4S 179.5E AT 070600 UTC
AND NEAR 32.8S 178.1E AT 071800 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 097.
WTNZ41 NZKL 061935
STORM WARNING 102
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE ZAKA 987HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7 SOUTH
177.2 WEST AT 061800 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 25.7S 177.2W AT 061800 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST 20 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE RISING TO 50
KNOTS BY 070600 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 120
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST TO NORTH.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 29.4S 179.5E AT 070600 UTC
AND NEAR 32.8S 178.1E AT 071800 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 097.
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45kts seems to be a little on the low side IMO, I'd have gone a reasonable amount higher given that presentation but there you go!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
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336
TXPS27 KNES 062103
A. 12P (ZAKA)
B. 06/2022Z
C. 26.5S
D. 177.6W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...VERY DIFFUCULT SITUATION WITH TILTING OF EYE WITH HEIGHT
POTENTIALLY SEEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY SO TO MAKE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION
A BIT EASIER USED MID LEVEL CENTER FOR LOCATION ABOVE...AS SUCH...OW
EYE EMBEDDED IN DG YIELDING AN EYE NO. OF 4.5. NO EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR
MG RING SURROUNDING OW EYE MAKING DT 4.5. MET IS A 3.5 PT IS A 4.0. DT
DISREGARDED DUE TO LLC VS. MLC ISSUE AND WOULD BREAK RULES FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF T2.0/12HRS. AS SUCH...FT BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
06/1557Z 25.0S 177.2W TMI
06/1746Z 25.2S 177.3W SSMIS
...NEWHARD
=
TXPS27 KNES 062103
A. 12P (ZAKA)
B. 06/2022Z
C. 26.5S
D. 177.6W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...VERY DIFFUCULT SITUATION WITH TILTING OF EYE WITH HEIGHT
POTENTIALLY SEEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY SO TO MAKE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION
A BIT EASIER USED MID LEVEL CENTER FOR LOCATION ABOVE...AS SUCH...OW
EYE EMBEDDED IN DG YIELDING AN EYE NO. OF 4.5. NO EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR
MG RING SURROUNDING OW EYE MAKING DT 4.5. MET IS A 3.5 PT IS A 4.0. DT
DISREGARDED DUE TO LLC VS. MLC ISSUE AND WOULD BREAK RULES FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF T2.0/12HRS. AS SUCH...FT BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
06/1557Z 25.0S 177.2W TMI
06/1746Z 25.2S 177.3W SSMIS
...NEWHARD
=
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: SPAC: ZAKA (10F/12P) - Tropical Cyclone
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ZAKA) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN/060530Z FEB 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPS31 PGTW 062100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (ZAKA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 25.4S 177.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 177.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.5S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 32.0S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 35.9S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 177.8W.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 060530Z
FEB 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 060530 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
STORM WARNING 103
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone ZAKA [985hPa] centre was located near 27.4 South 177.9 West at 070000 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 27.4S 177.9W at 070000 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southwest 18 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 180 nautical miles of centre in the sector from north through east to southwest and within 120 nautical miles of centre in the sector from southwest through northwest to north.
Forecast position near 30.4S 179.0W at 071200 UTC
and near 34.0S 180.0 at 080000 UTC.
Issued at 2:03pm Monday 7 February 2011
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone ZAKA [985hPa] centre was located near 27.4 South 177.9 West at 070000 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 27.4S 177.9W at 070000 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southwest 18 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 180 nautical miles of centre in the sector from north through east to southwest and within 120 nautical miles of centre in the sector from southwest through northwest to north.
Forecast position near 30.4S 179.0W at 071200 UTC
and near 34.0S 180.0 at 080000 UTC.
Issued at 2:03pm Monday 7 February 2011
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: SPAC: ZAKA (10F/12P) - Tropical Cyclone
GALE WARNING 113
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone ZAKA [987hPa] centre was located near 29.0 South 179.5 West at 070600 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 29.0S 179.5W at 070600 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southsouthwest 20 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre easing to 40 knots by 071800 UTC and then easing to 35 knots by 080600 UTC.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre in the sector from north through east to west and within 60 nautical miles of centre in the northwest quadrant.
Forecast position near 32.8S 178.9E at 071800 UTC
and near 37.0S 179.7E at 080600 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 103.
Issued at 8:07pm Monday 7 February 2011
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone ZAKA [987hPa] centre was located near 29.0 South 179.5 West at 070600 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 29.0S 179.5W at 070600 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southsouthwest 20 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre easing to 40 knots by 071800 UTC and then easing to 35 knots by 080600 UTC.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre in the sector from north through east to west and within 60 nautical miles of centre in the northwest quadrant.
Forecast position near 32.8S 178.9E at 071800 UTC
and near 37.0S 179.7E at 080600 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 103.
Issued at 8:07pm Monday 7 February 2011
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Yep its really weakened in the last 12hrs, not an awful lot left as you say Hurakan...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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