looking very good
SIO: TROPICAL LOW (15U/14S)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Invest...
Nope this should be a a TC, its quite simple judging from the Vis imagery, I suspect we'll get an upgrade in the next 6-12hrs barring any implosion of the convection...
Nope this should be a a TC, its quite simple judging from the Vis imagery, I suspect we'll get an upgrade in the next 6-12hrs barring any implosion of the convection...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0342 UTC 11/02/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 19.5S
Longitude: 107.0E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [251 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 11/1200: 20.7S 104.3E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 999
+24: 12/0000: 21.0S 101.8E: 120 [220]: 040 [075]: 995
+36: 12/1200: 21.8S 99.8E: 150 [280]: 035 [065]: 998
+48: 13/0000: 21.8S 97.8E: 185 [345]: 030 [055]: 1001
+60: 13/1200: 22.3S 96.6E: 230 [430]: 030 [055]: 1000
+72: 14/0000: 22.4S 94.9E: 280 [520]: 030 [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
The tropical low has intensified overnight, with a circular area of cold cloud
displaced to the west of a well-defined low-level circulation centre. Fair
position fix from 2226UTC SSMI microwave image. Dvorak DT=2.0 based on shear
pattern with <1.25deg separation between LLCC and cold cloud. FT based on MET
and PAT=2.5. Moderate vertical wind shear forecast to decrease during next 24-48
hours as the low moves under the upper ridge axis. The low is forecast to
intensify slowly, becoming a TC briefly tonight or early Saturday, then
weakening later in the weekend as it moves further WSW over colder waters.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0342 UTC 11/02/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 19.5S
Longitude: 107.0E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [251 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 11/1200: 20.7S 104.3E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 999
+24: 12/0000: 21.0S 101.8E: 120 [220]: 040 [075]: 995
+36: 12/1200: 21.8S 99.8E: 150 [280]: 035 [065]: 998
+48: 13/0000: 21.8S 97.8E: 185 [345]: 030 [055]: 1001
+60: 13/1200: 22.3S 96.6E: 230 [430]: 030 [055]: 1000
+72: 14/0000: 22.4S 94.9E: 280 [520]: 030 [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
The tropical low has intensified overnight, with a circular area of cold cloud
displaced to the west of a well-defined low-level circulation centre. Fair
position fix from 2226UTC SSMI microwave image. Dvorak DT=2.0 based on shear
pattern with <1.25deg separation between LLCC and cold cloud. FT based on MET
and PAT=2.5. Moderate vertical wind shear forecast to decrease during next 24-48
hours as the low moves under the upper ridge axis. The low is forecast to
intensify slowly, becoming a TC briefly tonight or early Saturday, then
weakening later in the weekend as it moves further WSW over colder waters.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0313UTC 11 FEBRUARY 2011
GALE WARNING
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 60 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal five south (19.5S)
longitude one hundred and seven decimal zero east (107.0E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 15 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 1000 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 18
hours.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 35 knots by 1200 UTC 11
February.
From 1200 UTC 11 February, winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of
centre with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 11 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 20.7 south 104.3 east
Central pressure 999 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 12 February: Within 120 nautical miles of 21.0 south 101.8 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.
Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 11 February 2011.
WEATHER PERTH
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: SIO: TROPICAL LOW (15U/96S)
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0728 UTC 11/02/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 20.3S
Longitude: 104.8E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [242 deg]
Speed of Movement: 17 knots [32 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 11/1800: 21.0S 101.8E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 999
+24: 12/0600: 21.5S 99.5E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 998
+36: 12/1800: 21.9S 97.6E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 1001
+48: 13/0600: 22.3S 96.1E: 185 [345]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 13/1800: 22.8S 94.7E: 230 [430]: 030 [055]: 1000
+72: 14/0600: 23.1S 93.1E: 280 [520]: 030 [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
Deep convection remains persistent in the last 12 to 24 hrs. Outflow good to the
north, restricted elsewhere. Position fair based on MTSAT IR/VIS imagery with
animation. Dvorak DT=2.5 based on shear pattern with <.75deg separation between
LLCC and cold cloud. FT based on MET and PAT=2.5. Moderate vertical wind shear
forecast to decrease during next 24-48 hours as the low moves under the upper
ridge axis. The low is forecast to intensify slowly, becoming a TC early
Saturday, then weakening later in the weekend as it moves further WSW over
colder waters.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0728 UTC 11/02/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 20.3S
Longitude: 104.8E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [242 deg]
Speed of Movement: 17 knots [32 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 11/1800: 21.0S 101.8E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 999
+24: 12/0600: 21.5S 99.5E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 998
+36: 12/1800: 21.9S 97.6E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 1001
+48: 13/0600: 22.3S 96.1E: 185 [345]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 13/1800: 22.8S 94.7E: 230 [430]: 030 [055]: 1000
+72: 14/0600: 23.1S 93.1E: 280 [520]: 030 [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
Deep convection remains persistent in the last 12 to 24 hrs. Outflow good to the
north, restricted elsewhere. Position fair based on MTSAT IR/VIS imagery with
animation. Dvorak DT=2.5 based on shear pattern with <.75deg separation between
LLCC and cold cloud. FT based on MET and PAT=2.5. Moderate vertical wind shear
forecast to decrease during next 24-48 hours as the low moves under the upper
ridge axis. The low is forecast to intensify slowly, becoming a TC early
Saturday, then weakening later in the weekend as it moves further WSW over
colder waters.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTXS32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//102221Z FEB 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 103.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 103.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.3S 100.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.7S 98.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.9S 96.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.1S 94.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.5S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.9S 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 102.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 111059Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE SSMIS
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND APRF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), WHICH HAS RELATIVELY DECREASED WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE EAST IS CAUSING INCREASED VWS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM MAINTAINS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE VWS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
102230Z FEB 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
102230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S
(BINGIZA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
AXAU01 APRF 111325
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1325 UTC 11/02/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 20.5S
Longitude: 103.5E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west [261 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [23 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 12/0000: 21.1S 100.6E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 999
+24: 12/1200: 21.6S 98.4E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 998
+36: 13/0000: 22.0S 96.4E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 1001
+48: 13/1200: 22.0S 94.9E: 185 [345]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 14/0000: 22.2S 93.2E: 230 [430]: 030 [055]: 1000
+72: 14/1200: 22.0S 91.9E: 280 [520]: 030 [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
Position based on animated VIS/near IR, aided by a tc_ssmis microwave image at
11:00 UTC.
Deep convection remains persistent to the northwest of the LLCC in a strongly
sheared environment [CIMSS estimate at 12:00 UTC 30-40 kt]. However weaker shear
exists just southwards of the system under the upper level ridge axis. Outflow
remains good to the north. Recent satellite imagery suggest outflow could be
improving to the south.
Dvorak DT=2.5 based on shear pattern with <.75deg separation between LLCC and
cold cloud. FT=2.5 [MET=2.0 adjusted +0.5 by PAT].
Forecast track based on a consensus of models steering the system to the west
southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south of the system.
This moves the system closer to the upper level ridge, so shear is forecast to
decrease during the next 24 hours. The low is forecast to intensify slowly,
becoming a TC early Saturday, before weakening later during the weekend as it
moves further WSW over colder waters [west of about 100E].
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1325 UTC 11/02/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 20.5S
Longitude: 103.5E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west [261 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [23 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 12/0000: 21.1S 100.6E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 999
+24: 12/1200: 21.6S 98.4E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 998
+36: 13/0000: 22.0S 96.4E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 1001
+48: 13/1200: 22.0S 94.9E: 185 [345]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 14/0000: 22.2S 93.2E: 230 [430]: 030 [055]: 1000
+72: 14/1200: 22.0S 91.9E: 280 [520]: 030 [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
Position based on animated VIS/near IR, aided by a tc_ssmis microwave image at
11:00 UTC.
Deep convection remains persistent to the northwest of the LLCC in a strongly
sheared environment [CIMSS estimate at 12:00 UTC 30-40 kt]. However weaker shear
exists just southwards of the system under the upper level ridge axis. Outflow
remains good to the north. Recent satellite imagery suggest outflow could be
improving to the south.
Dvorak DT=2.5 based on shear pattern with <.75deg separation between LLCC and
cold cloud. FT=2.5 [MET=2.0 adjusted +0.5 by PAT].
Forecast track based on a consensus of models steering the system to the west
southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south of the system.
This moves the system closer to the upper level ridge, so shear is forecast to
decrease during the next 24 hours. The low is forecast to intensify slowly,
becoming a TC early Saturday, before weakening later during the weekend as it
moves further WSW over colder waters [west of about 100E].
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1936 UTC 11/02/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 20.8S
Longitude: 102.1E
Location Accuracy: within 75 nm [140 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [257 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [25 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 12/0600: 21.3S 99.5E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 994
+24: 12/1800: 21.8S 97.4E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 1001
+36: 13/0600: 22.0S 95.7E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 1000
+48: 13/1800: 22.1S 94.1E: 185 [345]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 14/0600: 22.0S 92.6E: 230 [430]: 030 [055]: 1000
+72: 14/1800: 22.0S 90.8E: 280 [520]: 030 [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
Position poor, based on animated near-IR and persistence and aided by a 1420 UTC
ASCAT pass.
Deep convection began to diminish between 1330 UTC and 1630 UTC, while cloud top
temperatures warmed. Recent IR imagery between 1730 UTC and 1830 UTC indicates
renewed convection developing to the NW or the LLCC. The system remains in a
moderately sheared environment [CIMSS estimate at 1800 UTC 15-20 kt]. However
weaker shear [<10 kt] exists just southwards of the system under the upper level
ridge axis. Outflow remains good to the north.
Dvorak: DT=2.0 based on shear pattern with <.75deg separation between LLCC and
cold cloud and weak temperature gradient in cold cloud features. MET=1.5 based
on W- trend. FT based on DT. CI held at 2.5 based on constraints for initial
weakening.
ASCAT pass at 1420 UTC indicated 30kt surrounding the system.
Forecast track based on a consensus of models steering the system to the west
southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south of the system.
This moves the system closer to the upper level ridge, so shear is forecast to
continue decreasing during the next 24 hours. However the system is also moving
into a region of cooler water, so there exists only a small opportunity during
Saturday for the system to reach TC intensity after which time the lack of ocean
heat content is expected to dominate.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1936 UTC 11/02/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 20.8S
Longitude: 102.1E
Location Accuracy: within 75 nm [140 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [257 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [25 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 12/0600: 21.3S 99.5E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 994
+24: 12/1800: 21.8S 97.4E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 1001
+36: 13/0600: 22.0S 95.7E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 1000
+48: 13/1800: 22.1S 94.1E: 185 [345]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 14/0600: 22.0S 92.6E: 230 [430]: 030 [055]: 1000
+72: 14/1800: 22.0S 90.8E: 280 [520]: 030 [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
Position poor, based on animated near-IR and persistence and aided by a 1420 UTC
ASCAT pass.
Deep convection began to diminish between 1330 UTC and 1630 UTC, while cloud top
temperatures warmed. Recent IR imagery between 1730 UTC and 1830 UTC indicates
renewed convection developing to the NW or the LLCC. The system remains in a
moderately sheared environment [CIMSS estimate at 1800 UTC 15-20 kt]. However
weaker shear [<10 kt] exists just southwards of the system under the upper level
ridge axis. Outflow remains good to the north.
Dvorak: DT=2.0 based on shear pattern with <.75deg separation between LLCC and
cold cloud and weak temperature gradient in cold cloud features. MET=1.5 based
on W- trend. FT based on DT. CI held at 2.5 based on constraints for initial
weakening.
ASCAT pass at 1420 UTC indicated 30kt surrounding the system.
Forecast track based on a consensus of models steering the system to the west
southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south of the system.
This moves the system closer to the upper level ridge, so shear is forecast to
continue decreasing during the next 24 hours. However the system is also moving
into a region of cooler water, so there exists only a small opportunity during
Saturday for the system to reach TC intensity after which time the lack of ocean
heat content is expected to dominate.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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IDW23100
40:3:1:24:21S100E999:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0117UTC 12 FEBRUARY 2011
GALE WARNING
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 60 nautical miles of
latitude twenty one decimal zero south (21.0S)
longitude one hundred decimal zero east (100.0E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 15 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 1000 hPa
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 35 knots by 0000 UTC 13
February.
From 0000 UTC 13 February, winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of
centre with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 12 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 21.5 south 97.3 east
Central pressure 999 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 13 February: Within 120 nautical miles of 21.6 south 95.2 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.
Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 12 February 2011.
WEATHER PERTH
40:3:1:24:21S100E999:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0117UTC 12 FEBRUARY 2011
GALE WARNING
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 60 nautical miles of
latitude twenty one decimal zero south (21.0S)
longitude one hundred decimal zero east (100.0E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 15 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 1000 hPa
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 35 knots by 0000 UTC 13
February.
From 0000 UTC 13 February, winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of
centre with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 12 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 21.5 south 97.3 east
Central pressure 999 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 13 February: Within 120 nautical miles of 21.6 south 95.2 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.
Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 12 February 2011.
WEATHER PERTH
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0207 UTC 12/02/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 21.0S
Longitude: 100.0E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [259 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 12/1200: 21.5S 97.3E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 999
+24: 13/0000: 21.6S 95.2E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 996
+36: 13/1200: 21.5S 93.6E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 999
+48: 14/0000: 21.3S 92.1E: 185 [345]: 030 [055]: 998
+60: 14/1200: 21.4S 90.7E: 230 [430]: 030 [055]: 998
+72: 15/0000: 21.6S 89.0E: 280 [520]: 030 [055]: 1000 999
REMARKS:
Position poor, based on animated near-IR and persistence and aided by recent
microwave imagery.
Deep convection is slowly diminishing and cloud top temperatures have warmed in
the last 24 hours. Recent IR and microwave imagery shows low level cloud
organisation still evident with the LLCC <.75 deg from CDO. CIMSS indicates the
system is moving into weaker shear environment [<10 kt] to the south under the
upper level ridge axis. SSMI/AMSRE Precipitable Water imagery suggests dry air
entrainment along the western flank. Outflow remains good to the north.
Dvorak: Due to unavailability of sufficient data, unable to derive DT value at
2200UTC. MET=2.0 based on W- trend. PAT=2.0. FT based on MET and PAT. CI held at
2.5 based on constraints for initial weakening.
Forecast track based on a consensus of models continue to steer the system to
the west southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south of the
system. This is moving the system closer to the upper level ridge, so shear is
forecast to continue decreasing during the next 12 to 24 hours. However the
system is also moving into a region of cooler waters [26 degrees], so there
exists only a small window of opportunity early Sunday for the system to reach
TC intensity after which time the lack of ocean heat content is expected to
dominate.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0207 UTC 12/02/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 21.0S
Longitude: 100.0E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [259 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 12/1200: 21.5S 97.3E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 999
+24: 13/0000: 21.6S 95.2E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 996
+36: 13/1200: 21.5S 93.6E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 999
+48: 14/0000: 21.3S 92.1E: 185 [345]: 030 [055]: 998
+60: 14/1200: 21.4S 90.7E: 230 [430]: 030 [055]: 998
+72: 15/0000: 21.6S 89.0E: 280 [520]: 030 [055]: 1000 999
REMARKS:
Position poor, based on animated near-IR and persistence and aided by recent
microwave imagery.
Deep convection is slowly diminishing and cloud top temperatures have warmed in
the last 24 hours. Recent IR and microwave imagery shows low level cloud
organisation still evident with the LLCC <.75 deg from CDO. CIMSS indicates the
system is moving into weaker shear environment [<10 kt] to the south under the
upper level ridge axis. SSMI/AMSRE Precipitable Water imagery suggests dry air
entrainment along the western flank. Outflow remains good to the north.
Dvorak: Due to unavailability of sufficient data, unable to derive DT value at
2200UTC. MET=2.0 based on W- trend. PAT=2.0. FT based on MET and PAT. CI held at
2.5 based on constraints for initial weakening.
Forecast track based on a consensus of models continue to steer the system to
the west southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south of the
system. This is moving the system closer to the upper level ridge, so shear is
forecast to continue decreasing during the next 12 to 24 hours. However the
system is also moving into a region of cooler waters [26 degrees], so there
exists only a small window of opportunity early Sunday for the system to reach
TC intensity after which time the lack of ocean heat content is expected to
dominate.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002
WTXS32 PGTW 120300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 20.9S 100.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 100.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.1S 98.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.4S 95.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.5S 93.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.5S 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 99.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL WARMING OF THE CLOUD
TOPS AND CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). AN 112215Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC
AND LITTLE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED MULT-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DRIER SOUTHEASTERLIES BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS
FROM PGTW, APRF, AND KNES. TC 14S IS BEING STEERED STEADILY TO THE WEST BY A
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO TRACK WESTWARD, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND RESTRICTED OUTFLOW
WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD CRITERIA FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN BASIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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