ZCZC 904
WTIO30 FMEE 121845
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/5/20102011
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/12 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 53.5E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 18 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 090 SE: 090 SO: 075 NO: 090
64 KT NE: 045 SE: 045 SO: 045 NO: 045
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 760 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/13 06 UTC: 15.8S/52.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2011/02/13 18 UTC: 16.1S/51.3E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2011/02/14 06 UTC: 16.3S/49.9E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2011/02/14 18 UTC: 16.5S/48.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2011/02/15 06 UTC: 16.9S/47.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
72H: 2011/02/15 18 UTC: 17.5S/45.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 16/02/2011 18 UTC: 18.4S/43.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
120H: 17/02/2011 18 UTC: 19.2S/44.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0+
BINGIZA IS INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY. AN EYE IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THIS AFTERNOON; CURRENTLY MANUAL DVORAK ANALYSIS
GIVES A RAW T NUM AT 5.5 AT 18Z. 3 HOURS MEAN OF T-NUM GIVES 5.5- AND 6
HOURS MEAN GIVES 5.0+. ADT IS AT 3.9 AT 1730Z BUT WITH A MIS PLACED
CENTER UNTIL 1530Z.
SINCE THAT TIME THE CENTER IS LOCATED AT THE RIGHT PLACE AND RAW T-NUM IS
AT 5.9 ... SO CURRENT INTENSITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE ...
THE SYSTEM IS STILL QUASI-STATIONNARY ... AFTER ITS SMALL LOOP OF THIS
AFTERNOON, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME TONIGHT ON A WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS
TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE
REBUILDING SOUTH-WESTWARD MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK
TOWARDS THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND FOR A LANDFALL BETWEEN
MASAOLA PENINSULA AND SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND, ON MONDAY ACCORDING TO THIS
PRESENT FORECAST.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR A RATHER RAPID STRENGTHENING
OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL THE LANDFALL (NO UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR, VERY GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE - GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL).
THE THREAT IS GETTING STRONGER FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND IT
BECOMES VERY IMPORTANT FOR UNHABITANTS OF THIS REGION TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
NNNN
SIO: BINGIZA (05R/13S) - Moderate Tropical Storm
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: SIO: BINGIZA (05/13S) - Tropical Cyclone
Bingiza looks impressive on satellite. I think it has to be a Category 3/4 storm.
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Yep no way this is just a 85kts system, as others have said I think 100-110kts is probably more likely to be closer to the mark.
Going to be very interesting to see how strong it is at landfall, either way hope people are prepared for it!
What I will say, with such a small circulation it might suffer near land...gotta hope!
Going to be very interesting to see how strong it is at landfall, either way hope people are prepared for it!
What I will say, with such a small circulation it might suffer near land...gotta hope!
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Agreed. This will be a very powerful TC at landfall. Thankfully its a small eyewall.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Grifforzer
- Category 1
- Posts: 418
- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm
90 knots with gusts of 130 knots from RSMC
---------------------------------------------
WTIO30 FMEE 130038
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/5/20102011
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/13 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 53.1E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 3.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 953 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 22 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 055 SE: 055 SO: 055 NO: 055
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 740 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/13 12 UTC: 15.9S/52.3E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2011/02/14 00 UTC: 16.2S/50.9E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2011/02/14 12 UTC: 16.4S/49.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2011/02/15 00 UTC: 16.8S/48.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2011/02/15 12 UTC: 17.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
72H: 2011/02/16 00 UTC: 18.4S/44.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 17/02/2011 00 UTC: 19.5S/43.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
120H: 18/02/2011 00 UTC: 19.7S/44.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5
ASSUMING A CONTINUING DT AT 5.5 DURING THE ECLIPSE, 3 HOURS AND 6 HOURS
MEANS OF T-NUM GIVES NOW A FT AT 5.5. THIS IS IN LINE WITH ADT WHICH IS
AT 5.4 AT 2330Z WITH RAUW T-NUM AT 6.3.
THE SYSTEM HAS RESUMED A WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE REBUILDING SOUTH-WESTWARD
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TODAY IT SHOULD ACCELERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESENT FORECAST. LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR IS STILL EXPECTED MONDAY BETWEEN MASOALA PENINSULA AND
SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND, LIKELY NEAR ANTANAMBE.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY DECAY INLAND AS IT MOVES WESTWARDS. HOWEVER AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST, SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON NWP FIELDS IS FAVOURABLE FOR
A RECURVATURE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST (STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST). THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE TIMING OF THIS
RECURVATURE. IF IT MO
VES OVER THE MOZAMBIC CHANNEL, BINGIZA HAS TH POTENTIAL TO REINTENSIFY
BEFORE MOVES BACK OVER LAND BUT IF IT REMAINS INLAND THE SYSTEM COULD
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ...
BAFORE THAT TIME THE THREAT IS GETTING STRONGER FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR AND IT BECOMES VERY IMPORTANT FOR UNHABITANTS OF THIS REGION
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
---------------------------------------------
WTIO30 FMEE 130038
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/5/20102011
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/13 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 53.1E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 3.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 953 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 22 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 055 SE: 055 SO: 055 NO: 055
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 740 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/13 12 UTC: 15.9S/52.3E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2011/02/14 00 UTC: 16.2S/50.9E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2011/02/14 12 UTC: 16.4S/49.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2011/02/15 00 UTC: 16.8S/48.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2011/02/15 12 UTC: 17.6S/46.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
72H: 2011/02/16 00 UTC: 18.4S/44.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 17/02/2011 00 UTC: 19.5S/43.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
120H: 18/02/2011 00 UTC: 19.7S/44.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5
ASSUMING A CONTINUING DT AT 5.5 DURING THE ECLIPSE, 3 HOURS AND 6 HOURS
MEANS OF T-NUM GIVES NOW A FT AT 5.5. THIS IS IN LINE WITH ADT WHICH IS
AT 5.4 AT 2330Z WITH RAUW T-NUM AT 6.3.
THE SYSTEM HAS RESUMED A WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE REBUILDING SOUTH-WESTWARD
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TODAY IT SHOULD ACCELERATE
SIGNIFICANTLY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRESENT FORECAST. LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR IS STILL EXPECTED MONDAY BETWEEN MASOALA PENINSULA AND
SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND, LIKELY NEAR ANTANAMBE.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY DECAY INLAND AS IT MOVES WESTWARDS. HOWEVER AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST, SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON NWP FIELDS IS FAVOURABLE FOR
A RECURVATURE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST (STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST). THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE TIMING OF THIS
RECURVATURE. IF IT MO
VES OVER THE MOZAMBIC CHANNEL, BINGIZA HAS TH POTENTIAL TO REINTENSIFY
BEFORE MOVES BACK OVER LAND BUT IF IT REMAINS INLAND THE SYSTEM COULD
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ...
BAFORE THAT TIME THE THREAT IS GETTING STRONGER FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR AND IT BECOMES VERY IMPORTANT FOR UNHABITANTS OF THIS REGION
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
0 likes
Re:
KWT wrote:Yep no way this is just a 85kts system, as others have said I think 100-110kts is probably more likely to be closer to the mark.
Going to be very interesting to see how strong it is at landfall, either way hope people are prepared for it!
What I will say, with such a small circulation it might suffer near land...gotta hope!
They should do recon. From the advisories, it looks like a rather large storm. Of course from satellite, it looks small. Cloud base is not the only way to determine size. Extent of gale force winds and radius of outer closed isobars. I posted images of Super Typhoon Tip and some commented the cloud base not that large as they expected.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=100334
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Looks superb right now, the inner eyewal looks a little weaker then it did 12hrs ago but that maybe just short term shifts and breaks occuring there...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: Re:
Ptarmigan wrote:KWT wrote:Yep no way this is just a 85kts system, as others have said I think 100-110kts is probably more likely to be closer to the mark.
Going to be very interesting to see how strong it is at landfall, either way hope people are prepared for it!
What I will say, with such a small circulation it might suffer near land...gotta hope!
They should do recon. From the advisories, it looks like a rather large storm. Of course from satellite, it looks small. Cloud base is not the only way to determine size. Extent of gale force winds and radius of outer closed isobars. I posted images of Super Typhoon Tip and some commented the cloud base not that large as they expected.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=100334
Actually from what I've seen the radius is very small, whilst I've not seen the size today, the circulation of 34kts was about 70 miles from the core.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
A bit bigger today then but still not exactly large is it! 
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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