SIO: CARLOS (17U/15S) - Tropical Cyclone

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0723 UTC 22/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 20.9S
Longitude: 116.4E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [232 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 982 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm [295 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 22/1800: 21.9S 114.9E: 040 [075]: 045 [085]: 982
+24: 23/0600: 22.9S 113.5E: 070 [130]: 045 [085]: 979
+36: 23/1800: 23.8S 112.1E: 100 [185]: 055 [100]: 971
+48: 24/0600: 25.0S 110.4E: 130 [240]: 055 [100]: 971
+60: 24/1800: 26.3S 109.0E: 160 [295]: 050 [095]: 972
+72: 25/0600: 27.9S 108.1E: 190 [350]: 045 [085]: 978
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Carlos has passed over Karratha and is now moving southwest
along the Pilbara coast towards Onslow. The strongest winds remain on the
eastern side somewhat removed from the inner circulation.

Dvorak estimates estimates range from 3.5 [shear pattern] to as high as 4.0
[vis curved band 1.1] with MET=4.0, hence FT/CI=4.0. Final intensity estimate is
now 45 knots based upon surface observations.

The forecast track persists steadily to the southwest along the Pilbara coast
under the influence of a middle-level ridge to the southeast. Model guidance
indicates relatively high confidence in the consensus track due to low spread.

The current intensity is held until the cyclone is clear of the west coast in
the longer term. At that time there is a better chance of intensification when
shear eases though subsequently ocean heat content will begin to constrain the
system.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[KWT]

System just couldn't get away from land enough to get strong...however still a big rain event for much of the northern coasts of Aus.

[HURAKAN]

22/0832 UTC 21.1S 115.9E T4.0/4.0 CARLOS -- Southeast Indian

65 knots - hurricane intensity

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 50
Issued at 8:49 pm WST on Tuesday 22 February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Carnarvon and
adjacent inland parts.

At 8:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Carlos, was estimated to be
65 kilometres northeast of Onslow
and 165 kilometres east northeast of Exmouth and
moving west southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Carlos has moved offshore and re-intensified into a category 2
cyclone over the last 3 hours. The system should continue to move in a
southwest direction along the Pilbara coast towards Exmouth.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are possible along the
coast between Mardie and Onslow Tuesday night, extending to Exmouth early
Wednesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are being experienced in coastal
areas between Whim Creek and Onslow, and are expected to extend further west
towards Exmouth overnight and possibly south to Cape Cuvier during Wednesday
morning. Gales may reach as far south as Carnarvon and offshore islands by
Wednesday evening.

Residents of Pilbara coastal towns between Point Samson and Exmouth are warned
that tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with rough seas
and possible flooding of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises with possible
localised flooding for Pilbara coastal streams overnight. Refer to the Flood
Advice for the Pilbara [IDW39620].


FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near communities from Mardie to Exmouth including
Mardie, Onslow, Exmouth and surrounding areas need to take shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT: People in or near communities of Coral Bay and Pannawonica need
to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

ALL CLEAR: People in communities between Point Samson and Karratha, including
Point Samson, Wickham, Dampier, Roebourne and Karratha are advised that wind
and storm surge dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid the
dangers caused by damage.

Communities between Coral Bay and Carnarvon should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 21.2 degrees South 115.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 19 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Wednesday 23 February.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1313 UTC 22/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 21.2S
Longitude: 115.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [250 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 10 nm [20 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 10 nm [20 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 992 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 23/0000: 22.3S 113.6E: 050 [095]: 055 [100]: 980
+24: 23/1200: 23.1S 112.1E: 080 [150]: 060 [110]: 970
+36: 24/0000: 23.9S 110.2E: 110 [210]: 060 [110]: 970
+48: 24/1200: 24.9S 108.7E: 145 [270]: 055 [100]: 972
+60: 25/0000: 26.1S 106.9E: 190 [355]: 045 [085]: 975
+72: 25/1200: 27.3S 105.8E: 240 [445]: 040 [075]: 978
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Carlos moved inland during the afternoon but has now taken a
more westerly path and moved over water again. The strongest winds remain on the
eastern and northern side somewhat removed from the inner circulation.

Dvorak estimates based on a shear pattern on EIR imagery give a DT of 3.5. CI is
held at 4.0 and intensity is set at 55 knots.

The forecast track persists steadily to the southwest along the Pilbara coast
under the influence of a middle-level ridge to the southeast. Model guidance
indicates relatively high confidence in the consensus track due to low spread.

The current intensity is held until the cyclone reaches cooler SSTs. It is
possible the system will intensify further as it moves clears of the west coast
and shear is forecast to decrease.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest track and radar

[HURAKAN]

Legendre Island reported sustained winds of 49 kt (10-min) or 56 kt (1-min) and a wind gust of 70 knots (1-min), the pressure went down to 985.1 mb.

Code: Select all

22/04:00pm   25.2   -   25.4   -   -   NNW   91   113   49   61   992.1   -   -
22/10:00am   25.1   -   25.3   -   -   SSW   76   91   41   49   985.1   -   -

Link : http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60801 ... 4307.shtml

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 51
Issued at 11:50 pm WST on Tuesday 22 February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Roebourne to Carnarvon and
adjacent inland parts.

The Cyclone WARNING from Whim Creek to Roebourne has been cancelled.

At 11:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Carlos, was estimated to be
30 kilometres north northwest of Onslow
and 110 kilometres east northeast of Exmouth and
moving west southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Carlos currently lies just off the west Pilbara coast and
should continue to move in a southwesterly direction towards Exmouth.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are possible along the
coast near Onslow, extending to Exmouth during early Wednesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are being experienced in coastal
areas between Roebourne and Exmouth. GALES may extend south to Cape Cuvier
during Wednesday morning and to Carnarvon and offshore islands by Wednesday
evening if the system tracks further towards the south.

Residents of Pilbara coastal towns between Cape Preston and Exmouth are warned
that tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with rough seas
and possible flooding of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises with possible
localised flooding for Pilbara coastal streams. Conditions easing from the east
during Wednesday. Refer to the Flood Advice for the Pilbara [IDW39620].


FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near communities from Mardie to Exmouth including
Mardie, Onslow, Exmouth and surrounding areas need to take shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT: People in or near communities of Coral Bay and Pannawonica need
to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

ALL CLEAR: People in communities between Point Samson and Karratha, including
Point Samson, Wickham, Dampier, Roebourne and Karratha are advised that wind
and storm surge dangers have passed but you need to take care to avoid the
dangers caused by damage.

Communities between Coral Bay and Carnarvon should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 21.4 degrees South 115.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 19 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 150 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday 23 February.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

latest radar, right off the coast

[HURAKAN]

Latest water vapor

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[CrazyC83]

Based on radar and satellite presentation and surface obs, I would estimate 60 kt for the current intensity. The pressure looks to be 980mb based on those surface obs as well.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1914 UTC 22/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 21.7S
Longitude: 114.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [232 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Central Pressure: 978 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 10 nm [20 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 10 nm [20 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 994 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 23/0600: 22.6S 113.1E: 050 [095]: 055 [100]: 976
+24: 23/1800: 23.4S 111.4E: 080 [150]: 060 [110]: 970
+36: 24/0600: 24.3S 109.7E: 115 [215]: 055 [100]: 972
+48: 24/1800: 25.5S 108.0E: 145 [270]: 050 [095]: 974
+60: 25/0600: 26.7S 106.5E: 195 [360]: 045 [085]: 978
+72: 25/1800: 27.9S 105.5E: 240 [445]: 040 [075]: 978
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Carlos moved inland during Tuesday afternoon before taking a
more westerly track and moving over water again Tuesday evening. The system now
lies very close to the coast just to the west of Onslow. The strongest winds
remain on the eastern and northern side, somewhat removed from the inner
circulation.

Dvorak estimates based on embedded centre on EIR imagery give a DT of 4.0. MET
is 4.5, however FT is weighted towards DT and PAT [also 4.0]. CI is held at 4.0
and intensity is set at 55 knots.

The forecast track persists steadily to the southwest along the Pilbara coast
under the influence of a middle-level ridge to the southeast. Model guidance
indicates relatively high confidence in the consensus track due to low spread.

East to southeast shear of 15-20 knots and the close proximity to the coast
should prevent the system intensifying further in the next 12 hours. After this,
it is possible the system will intensify a little as it moves clears of the west
coast and shear is forecast to decrease. Intensity should then start to decrease
beyond 48 hours as the cyclone reaches cooler SSTs.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 54
Issued at 8:50 am WST on Wednesday 23 February 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mardie to Carnarvon and
adjacent inland parts.

At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Carlos, was estimated to be
20 kilometres south of Exmouth
and 115 kilometres west southwest of Onslow and
moving southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Carlos currently lies over the North West Cape between Exmouth
and Learmonth and will continue moving in a southwesterly direction. The
cyclone is expected to intensify as it moves over open water to the west of
North West Cape during Wednesday afternoon.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 155 kilometres per hour are possible along the
coast west of Onslow possibly extending south to Coral Bay during the
afternoon. The strongest winds are to the north and east of the cyclone's
centre, and it is likely that Exmouth won't experience these stronger winds
until later this morning.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are being experienced in coastal
areas between Onslow and Ningaloo. GALES may extend south to Cape Cuvier during
Wednesday afternoon and to Carnarvon and offshore islands by Wednesday evening
if the system tracks further towards the south.

Residents of Pilbara coastal towns between Mardie and Coral Bay are warned that
tides may rise above the normal high tide mark with rough seas and possible
flooding of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises with possible
localised flooding for western Pilbara coastal streams. Conditions will ease
from the east during Wednesday night. Refer to the Flood Advice for the Pilbara
[IDW39620].


FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in or near communities from Onslow to Coral Bay, including
Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay and surrounding areas need to take shelter
immediately.

ALL CLEAR: People in communities between Dampier and Mardie including
Pannawonica are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed but you
need to take care to avoid the dangers caused by damage.

Communities between Coral Bay and Carnarvon should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 22.1 degrees South 114.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 974 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Wednesday 23 February.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Latest track and infrared

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (CARLOS) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 22.1S 114.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 114.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.9S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.8S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 24.9S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 26.1S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 28.7S 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 30.8S 102.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 33.0S 102.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 113.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (CARLOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP FROM LEARMONTH BOTH SHOW DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. OBSERVATIONS FROM
LEARMONTH INDICATE A MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE OF 980 MB WITH
EASTERLY SURFACE GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE RADAR LOOP AND OBSERVATIONS FROM LEARMONTH WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWER THAN THE PGTW AND APRF
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS DUE TO THE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. TC 15S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TC 15S SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO TURN POLEWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
STEERING RIDGE. INITIALLY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
AFTER MOVING BACK OVER WARM WATER AND WITH INCREASED OUTFLOW INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24, TC CARLOS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO DECREASED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
BELOW 35 KNOTS AROUND TAU 120, PRIOR TO COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE
THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z,
231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0103 UTC 23/02/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 22.1S
Longitude: 114.1E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 974 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 10 nm [20 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 10 nm [20 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 23/1200: 23.1S 112.5E: 045 [085]: 070 [130]: 960
+24: 24/0000: 23.9S 110.7E: 075 [140]: 075 [140]: 956
+36: 24/1200: 25.1S 108.8E: 110 [200]: 075 [140]: 956
+48: 25/0000: 26.4S 106.9E: 140 [260]: 060 [110]: 967
+60: 25/1200: 27.7S 105.3E: 190 [350]: 050 [095]: 974
+72: 26/0000: 28.9S 103.8E: 235 [435]: 040 [075]: 980
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Carlos has crossed the Exmouth Gulf and currently lies over
land just south of Exmouth. The strongest winds remain on the eastern and
northern side, somewhat removed from the centre of the cyclone.

Dvorak estimates based on VIS curved band [wrap of 1.1] gives a DT of 4.0. MET
is 4.5, PAT is 4.0, CI=FT=DT=PAT. Intensity is set at 60 knots [10-min]. This is
consistent with maximum winds observed from offshore sites.

The forecast track persists steadily to the southwest under the influence of a
middle-level ridge to the southeast. Model guidance indicates relatively high
confidence in the consensus track due to low spread.

East to southeast shear of 15-20 knots and the close proximity to the coast
should prevent the system intensifying in the short term, howeverer it will move
over open water during Wednesday afternoon off the west Pilbara coast and should
intensify under favourable SSTs and slightly less shear. Intensity should start
to decrease from Friday as the cyclone reaches cooler SSTs.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

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