SPO: BUNE (13F/19P) - Tropical Cyclone

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 24/0148 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F CENTRE [995HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 21.1S 179.5W AT
240000 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 7 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW EVIDENT BOTH TO THE NORTH AND THE SOUTH OF THE
DEPRESSION. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BY AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 0.45 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL,
GIVING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING
THE SYSTEM AND MAITAINING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 13F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 240800 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

24/0232 UTC 20.8S 179.7W T3.0/3.0 19P -- Southeast Pacific

45 knots

[P.K.]

WTPS11 NFFN 240600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 24/0800 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 1 CENTRE [990HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 21.1S
179.9W AT 240600 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS.CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL
MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.


ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. PRIMARY
BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION
IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BY
NORTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED
BAND PATTERN WITH 0.65 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE
SYSTEM AND MAITAINING A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 241800 UTC 22.0S 180.0 MOV S AT 5 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 250600 UTC 22.7S 180.0 MOV S AT 4 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 23.0S 180.0 MOV S AT 3 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 23.1S 180.0 MOV S AT 3 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC BUNE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 241400 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

24/0832 UTC 20.7S 179.6W T3.5/3.5 BUNE -- Southeast Pacific

55 knots

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 179.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 179.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.7S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.2S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.8S 179.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 23.3S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 24.0S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 26.1S 179.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 29.6S 176.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 179.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. A 240654Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS A CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A 240538Z SSMIS AS WELL AS THE 240654Z SSMIS
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND ABRF. TC 19P IS TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. NEAR TAU 72, TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO
TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS SUPPORT
THIS TRACK TO INCLUDE UKMO, GFS, GFDN, ECMWF AND WBAR, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE
SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN UNREALISTIC WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120 THAT
SOMEHOW STEERS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD DESPITE THE DEEP TROUGH DIGGING
TO THE SYSTEM'S SOUTH. THE UKMO AND GFDN MODELS HAVE INDICATED A
WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 BUT HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THIS FORECAST IS
POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE CLOSER TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS, WHICH APPEAR MORE REALISTIC. PEAK INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE FAVORABLE SST, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 72, TC 19P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. TC 19P IS EXPECTED
TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Seems like this system is nearing or it's already at hurricane intensity

[cycloneye]

Floater infared shows that small warm spot.

[Macrocane]

Wow! That's a nice cyclone, it has good outflow, the bands are wrapping nicely around the center, it's producing strong convection and it has an eye-like feature, maybe the agencies are underestimating its intensity.

[P.K.]

50kt cat 2.

WTPS01 NFFN 241200
STORM WARNING 031 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 24/1317 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CENTRE 983HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3
SOUTH 179.9 WEST AT 241200UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.3S 179.9W AT 241200UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT 02 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
55 KNOTS BY 251200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.8S 180.0W AT 250000 UTC
AND NEAR 22.2S 179.9W AT 251200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.


THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 030.

[HURAKAN]

24/1432 UTC 21.2S 179.9W T4.0/4.0 BUNE -- Southeast Pacific

65 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 24/2007 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 982HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5S
179.9W AT 241800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 2 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.

WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NE QUADRANT AND
WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 80
NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW
QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT
occurring IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION
IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM BUT APPEARS GOOD ELSEWHERE. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
BUNE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWEST BY WEAK NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN
WIND. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 0.9 DEGREE
WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL, GIVING OF DT=3.5. MT AND PT ALSO SUGGEST 3.5,
THEREFORE T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP THE SYSTEM WHILE MAINTAINING A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERLY TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 250600 UTC 22.1S 180.0E MOV S AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 22.5S 179.7E MOV S AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 22.9S 179.3E MOV S AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 23.2S 178.8E MOV S AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 250200 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 179.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 179.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.2S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.8S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 23.2S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 23.5S 178.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 24.7S 178.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 27.3S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 31.6S 177.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 179.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241810Z 37GHZ SSMI IMAGE REVEALS
EXTENSIVE CURVED BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS
WELL AS A PERSISTENT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE CYCLONE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST
ARE SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, SOME
SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 19P IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TAU 72. TC 19P IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER. HOWEVER,
SLOW MOVEMENT OVER A SHALLOW LAYER OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27 DEGREES CELSIUS) COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INDUCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM WILL CAP THE INTENSIFICATION OF TC 19P AFTER TAU.
AROUND TAU 72, TC 19P WILL TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
COINCIDENT WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD TURN, TC 19P WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER A COOLER
SEA SURFACE. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120, TC 19P WILL INTERACT WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN AND COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION, BECOMING A STORM FORCE LOW NORTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND WITH
THE SUPPORT OF FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT FACTORS. DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK, BUT
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LAG EXPECTED CONDITIONS. PEAK
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO
ANTICIPATED FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT, PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER, AND
THE RECENT TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... NRL: 75 knots

[HURAKAN]

24/2032 UTC 21.6S 179.5W T4.5/4.5 BUNE -- Southeast Pacific

75 knots

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 25/0152 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 976HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8S
179.4W AT 250000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS/EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 3 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS DEVELOPING WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
EXPECT ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. A RAGGED EYE PATTERN EMERGED
OVERNIGHT, WHICVH BECAME MORE DEFINED FOR A PERIOD THE MORNING.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM BUT APPEARS GOOD ELSEWHERE. SST IS AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS. BUNE HAS ADOPTED A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST IN THE PAST 6 HOURS DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EAST OF NEW ZEALAND. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT BASED ON AN EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH MG SURROUND,
GIVING DT=4.0. MT AND PT SUGGEST 4.0, THEREFORE T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A
SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 251200 UTC 22.3S 179.3W MOV S AT 3 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 260000 UTC 22.8S 179.8W MOV SW AT 3 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 23.2S 179.7E MOV SW AT 3 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 23.7S 179.0E MOV SW AT 4 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 250800 UTC.

[cycloneye]

WTPS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 22.4S 179.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 179.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.9S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 23.4S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 23.9S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 24.8S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 27.4S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 30.7S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 35.1S 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 179.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 19P HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS REMAINED FRAGMENTED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND
CONVERGENT FLOW. A 250554Z CORIOLIS IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING, PREDOMINANTLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 170W AND EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. BASED ON
THE CORIOLIS IMAGE, TC 19P HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWARD AND IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD
OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THIS TRACK. TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER. HOWEVER, SLOW MOVEMENT
OVER A SHALLOW LAYER OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SST (27 DEGREES
CELSIUS) COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INDUCED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CAP THE
INTENSIFICATION OF TC 19P AFTER TAU 24. AROUND TAU 72, TC 19P WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ALL OF WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
TC 19P IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN AS
A 45-55 KNOT EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW NORTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252100Z AND 260900Z.//
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