ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#61 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 6:49 am

06Z

AL, 91, 2011042106, , BEST, 0, 233N, 625W, 35, 1010, LO

#62 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 7:00 am

Latest visible

#63 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 7:10 am

Looking good this morning, at least as a pre-season shear induced subtropical invest can look lol. Circulation is still there and isn't completely uncovered.

#64 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 7:12 am

Link: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/1104 ... _ships.txt

SHIPS was started with 85 knots of shear, that's obviously wrong when looking at the satellite images. There is shear affecting the system, but not that strong.

#65 Postby **NDG** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 7:14 am

91L will have the best chances of doing something over the next 24-48 hrs before conditions get even worst.
Euro, CMC and to some extent GFS continue to show that the moisture will be moving into FL by Monday and Tuesday.

Last night's euro:

#66 Postby **GCANE** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 7:38 am

Cu's are not bad and UL winds may have relaxed just a bit.

Core has cooled to 1C.

Gustywind · #67 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 9:03 am

AdamFirst wrote:Is this swirl related from the trough that dumped a bunch of rain on the leewards last week?

I tkink you're right my friend. Yeah, last week Guadeloupe has received very nice amounts of water from this trough. Values has climbed to 100 millimeters in somes areas :eek:

.

#68 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 12:49 pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211743
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT THU APR 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING POORLY ORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER FZNT02 KNHC.
ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY...OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

#69 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 12:53 pm

#70 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 1:02 pm

Nice pic

Decomdoug · #71 Postby **Decomdoug** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 2:10 pm

From The Sun-Sentinel:

"Atlantic disturbance looking less likely to develop
Ken Kaye
April 21st, 2011 2:09 PM

The chance of the Atlantic disturbance developing over the next 48 hours have been lowered from 20 to 10 percent, the National Hurricane Center said in a special outlook today.
As previously noted, the thing doesn’t pose much of a threat to any land.
However, it could increase the chance of rain in South Florida by early next week.
Currently, the National Weather Service puts the chance of rain at 20 percent on Monday and a 30 percent chance on Tuesday and Wednesday.
"At 1:45 today, the poorly organized blob of low pressure – of interest mainly because it popped up six weeks before the official start of hurricane season — was about 450 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. It was moving north-northwest at 10 mph.
Considering it’s under heavy attack from wind shear, any development would be slow to occur, senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven of the hurricane center said.
The winds should become even more hostile on Friday, when the next advisory will be issued, he said."

http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/weather-h ... o-develop/

#72 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 3:18 pm

Latest visible

#73 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 3:23 pm

visible closeup

#74 Postby **plasticup** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 6:14 pm

Definitely looks good, but it just moved north of the 25 degree isotherm. That's not going to cut it. And although the models move it south over the next few days, shear is forecast to blow up before the system reaches warmer waters.

#75 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 6:14 pm

Jam151 · #76 Postby **Jam151** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 7:54 pm

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB1qzOhSPhI&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

#77 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 9:47 pm

Convection has been firing near the CoC...with the center producing its own thunderstorms and this is warm core with 40mph, why is this not being classified. Had this been in the Gulf, I would imagine it would be. Just my 2 cents though.

SETXWXLADY · #78 Postby **SETXWXLADY** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 9:52 pm

Jam151 wrote:[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB1qzOhSPhI&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Nice job Jam.

I'm glad it doesn't have much of a chance of development. And I'm glad it's only April with that thing sitting out there.

#79 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 9:54 pm

Latest

#80 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Apr 21, 2011 10:24 pm

Development chances near zero. Shear will be on the increase tomorrow. Won't be much left of it in 36-48 hrs.

ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

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