WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[StormingB81]

I wish you where just here because I thought that it wouldnt be that bad either and we got rocked! its was really bad here..I was wondering if the whole thing just took a right hand turn and went over the top of us....the widns and everything flying like it was paper..i mean it through big trees like 5-10 feet away from the stump....i mean trees that are like 3-4' wide

[Chacor]

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/yesterday-91236.html?areaCode=000&groupCode=65

Max sustained at Naha Airport was 39.5 m/s or 76 kt. A 135 kt gust based on that sustained wind seems unlikely.

EDIT:
According to Wunderground, http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... story.html, peak wind at Naha was at 1300 UTC: 20076GP99KT. 99 kt gusts.

Why would the military lie and give false reports? Judging from the damage I've seen and because I've experienced the equivalent of a category 2 storm, I'm inclined to believe that data is correct.

A Cat 1 storm (as reported by the JTWC - similarly military) would not produce gusts to 135 kt. The NHC, for example, only estimates gusts at 135 kt when sustained winds are 110 kt.

There is a caveat. Here is the JMA's advisory from 1200 UTC:
WTPQ20 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1102 SONGDA (1102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 26.4N 126.5E GOOD
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT

They were estimating peak gusts of 115 kt, so I'd believe anything within 5% of that (120 kt).

[StormingB81]

Also just learned a weather radar sat was destroyed during the storm!

[JTE50]

Was reading the thread and had a few comments. If the military is getting a 156 mph gust out of the storm then the first thing that comes to my mind is "was the wind gauge calibrated because it is suspect". It just doesn't fit - the satellite presentation or the obs Chacor posted. You have to go by calibrated anemometers that meet the siting requirements and not your eyeballs. I don't even trust mine especially if I haven't been in a storm in a while. I recall in Hurricane Opal back in 1995, Hurlburt Field (near Eglin AFB), reported a wind gust of 145mph while nearby stations were 115. The type of anemometer used at Hurlburt Field had a high error in heavy rain -which is where you find the strongest winds. Unfortunately the press picked it up and published it.

That said, sounds like Songda was a real howler and quite an experience. Good to hear everyone made it through safe and sound.

[oaba09]

Good to know that everyone of our friends in japan are fine....

[Chacor]

For whatever reason, the JTWC have kept Songda alive as a tropical storm rather than issue warnings on it as an extratropical cyclone which they've done before.

WTPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 32.8N 134.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 31 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.8N 134.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 34.4N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 35.3N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 33.2N 135.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W
(SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOUSKA,
JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST AT 31 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WELL ALONG IN THE PROCESS OF EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (XTT). THE POSITION CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DUE TO
THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC, GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN AGENCY AND AUTOMATED
FIXES, AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE STORM HAVE COMPLETELY SHEARED FROM THE LLCC, SURFACE REPORTS
FROM WAKAYAMA AIRPORT COUPLED WITH A 290004Z SSMIS PASS CONFIRM THAT
THE BOUNDARY LAYERS OF THE STORM REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED AND VIGOROUS.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS AND
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. COMPUTER MODELS ARE
STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL SYSTEM,
THE BAIU BOUNDARY, AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER WESTERN JAPAN. SOME VORTEX TRACKERS CONTINUE TO PULL THE LLCC
INLAND IN THE DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS, BUT MORE
MODELS, INCLUDING ECMWF AND NOGAPS, ARE BEGINNING TO RESOLVE THE
INTERACTION AND KEEP THE LLCC TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE JTWC
FORECAST REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF, AND FASTER THAN, CONSENSUS. TS 04W
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAKAYAMA
PREFECTURE AND THEN MOVE BACK OUT TO SEA, PASSING SOUTH OF BOTH
SHIMODA AND THE CHIBA PENINSULA. THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVELS COUPLED
WITH THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL KEEP TS 04W AT GALE FORCE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE XTT PROCESS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.
//

[StormingB81]

There was a weather radar satellite destroyed..that will be costly..and I was just talking about crazy she lives on the 8th floor and a branch went through her window!

[P.K.]

The report of 108 kt sustained G 136 kt from Kadena appears to be unverified and I would take it with more than a grain of salt. There are no JMA observations of gusts higher than 99 kt (Naha 13Z) or sustained winds above 80 kt (Kumejima 13Z).

JMA are listing a 55.3m/s max gust at 1305Z on the 28th May for Naha which is 107kts. The sustained wind at 13Z was 34.4m/s (67kts).

That said these Kadena obs do look rather high compared with nearby obs and the warnings at the time.

[StormingB81]

pk..they may look high but we had trees flying like paper in a breeze..like 5-10 feet from the stump

[HURAKAN]

Nothing tropical left

[artist]

what people forget about is there are pockets or mini vortexes in hurricanes/typhoons which can hit one area and not another. We experienced it first hand during hurricane Frances. All around us the damage was much greater than the surrounding areas. When these bands come through, watch on radar, or even satellite, you will see some of the band is much more intense than other parts of it. With hurricane Jeanne(2 weeks after Frances) it was rated the same, yet we didn't see nearly as much damage as we did with Frances, yet other areas saw more. It is a hit and miss type thing. And if you have the eyewall go over you, it will be much more intense than from the other parts of the storm as well. I will say this, after these 2 storms, we realized that even though it may not have been as strong as we thought it felt, it was just proof that even a cat 1 can do much more damage than we ever imagined. Low end cat 1's versus a high end cat 1 can make a huge difference too.

This is another lesson in never taking a low end typhoon or hurricane lightly, you never know when you might get hit with a high end pocket/mini vortex. No two areas within a storm will experience the exact same winds, rain, etc. Just look at a line of strong thunderstorms in which some may experience a tornado within that same line, while others, just some high winds. It is virtually the same thing.

I also think this can explain the difference in the readings from the different sites. No one area experiences exactly the same conditions.

I am just glad all are ok.

[artist]

One other thought here, official readings are only good for that one spot, 100 feet away could experience totally different readings if they are hit by an extreme cell or mini vortex and it would never be known, other than the damage it shows, and would not be an "official" reading.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 038
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 34.4N 136.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 34.4N 136.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 35.0N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 35.8N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 34.5N 137.5E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W,
SONGDA, MAINTAINED A NORTHEASTERLY COURSE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
TRACKING OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF WAKAYAMA PREFECTURE. THE OVER-
LAND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN RAPID WEAKENING. TD 04W HAS
NEARLY COMPLETED EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (XTT) AND HAS DEVELOPED
BOTH WARM AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM MIE PREFECTURE AND ISE WAN.
CHUBU CENTRAIR INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RJGG), UPSTREAM OF THE LLCC,
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO
40 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHED. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO RESUME AN
OVER-WATER TRACK WHILE COMPLETING XTT DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE
RESUMPTION OF AN OVER-WATER TRACK WILL HELP MAINTAIN SYSTEM
INTENSITY UNTIL IT DEVELOPS INTO A GALE FORCE LOW EAST OF THE CHIBA
PENINSULA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well out in the ocean taking some nice seas on our side right now. Defiantly one of those nights where secure for sea is really stressed. Good thing I don't get sea sick easily though. Any how storm extra-tropical now, but still some thunderstorms coming out of the outer rain bands way out here in the ocean.

That's all from here though!

[StormingB81]

Heard something trying to get official word wheather its combines or just Okinawa but heard there were 30 deaths from this storm!

[euro6208]

Bye Bye Songda...

[phwxenthusiast]

made a graph on Songda's winds and central pressure, based on JTWC and NRLMRY...
enjoy

[RobWESTPACWX]

Pat, just checked your blog since the image was not showing here, great images though, really pro stuff! Thanks for the help during this storm as well. Also want to say to everyone posting observations here and all the MET knowledge that went in to it was fantastic, this forum is defiantly the best place to go for western pacific typhoon information from any where I have seen. Great stuff!

So thanks again to Infidoll for introducing me last season!

As for me I'm in a blunder of a situation, the decision to leave the safe waters of tokyo harbor and go out in to this mess was way above me, but yes, still out here getting knocked all around taking some seas upwards of 20ft at times! Been a long day to say the least. I took some videos will upload them when I get home.

[Infdidoll]

what people forget about is there are pockets or mini vortexes in hurricanes/typhoons which can hit one area and not another. We experienced it first hand during hurricane Frances. All around us the damage was much greater than the surrounding areas. When these bands come through, watch on radar, or even satellite, you will see some of the band is much more intense than other parts of it. With hurricane Jeanne(2 weeks after Frances) it was rated the same, yet we didn't see nearly as much damage as we did with Frances, yet other areas saw more. It is a hit and miss type thing. And if you have the eyewall go over you, it will be much more intense than from the other parts of the storm as well. I will say this, after these 2 storms, we realized that even though it may not have been as strong as we thought it felt, it was just proof that even a cat 1 can do much more damage than we ever imagined. Low end cat 1's versus a high end cat 1 can make a huge difference too.

This is another lesson in never taking a low end typhoon or hurricane lightly, you never know when you might get hit with a high end pocket/mini vortex. No two areas within a storm will experience the exact same winds, rain, etc. Just look at a line of strong thunderstorms in which some may experience a tornado within that same line, while others, just some high winds. It is virtually the same thing.

I also think this can explain the difference in the readings from the different sites. No one area experiences exactly the same conditions.

I am just glad all are ok.

I think you're absolutely correct on this. I was wondering after seeing the extent of some of the damage if there weren't other factors at play. Many people here looked at Weather Underground (who couldn't seem to make up their minds on the intensity of this storm) and I've heard plenty of people posting up about things missing from their yards because they underestimated the storm. It blew the wall off my husband's workshop so those had to be some powerful winds! My poor neighbors. We got lucky and I had some plastic rainguards on my car windows that are missing now...but several of my neighbors have windows out on their cars and were downstairs sharing duct tape and plastic to cover their windows!

I saw some damage pics on Japan Update of twisted and contorted metal. People who went through Man-Yi in 2007 are saying the damage from this one was much, much worse and Man-Yi was a much bigger storm. Someone else who speaks Japanese was saying the Japanese news was reporting sustained winds of 123 mph...but being that I can speak only elementary Japanese and sure as heck can't type it, finding local news reports or where they get their data is difficult.

Some video I took after it started to die down. I was too chicken to do anything but huddle on the floor with the kids for a while:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIiCMypvJYU[/youtube]

[Typhoon Hunter]

I suspect it could well have been a tornado given how localized the damage seems to have been. When the wind is howling and it's blinding with rain even a minimal cat. 1 can seem like hell on earth. If a cat. 3 eyewall had hit Okinawa they'd be far more widespread damage including plenty of flipped cars!