NIO: DEPRESSION (01A)

[KWT]

GFS still developing a real strong system whilst the ECM is showing nothing at all.

[Chacor]

GFS still developing a real strong system whilst the ECM is showing nothing at all.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... t=Loop+All

Yes, GFS has this as a long tracker into the Arabian Peninsula. Will be an interesting one to watch.

[supercane]

Latest from JTWC:

ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZJUN2011//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.0N
72.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 72.1E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DOES NOT
DEPICT ANY CLEAR BANDING FEATURES OR EVIDENCE OF A DISTINCT LLCC.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT POONA, JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE DISTURBANCE,
SHOW LIGHT WINDS WITH A 01 MB PRESSURE INCREASE OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR SURAT, JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
DISTURBANCE, SHOW LIGHT WINDS WITH A 02 MB PRESSURE DECREASE OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THESE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE
IS LIKELY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF
INDIA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER
THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF MARGINAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[alhddar]

98A.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.17.7N.71.9E

[alhddar]

[alhddar]

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[alhddar]

98A.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.17.9N.71.4E

[alhddar]

[alhddar]

[alhddar]

[alhddar]

[alhddar]

98A.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.18.4N.72.1E

[alhddar]

[Extratropical94]

Can we get a moratorium on the picture spamming for now please?

/bump

alhddar, would you please stop unloading huge amounts of imagery in this thread.
This is meant to be a discussion, so one or two graphics are always helpful, but not seven of them in like ten minutes.
Think of the people with a low bandwidth. If they are trying to inform themselves about the current progress and activity of a storm, and they are confonted with image data in the two-digit megabyte range, the pages will take forever to load.
So, all in all this is not meant to be rude, but let's try to keep this thread at the level of a qualified discussion with a moderate number of graphics.
Thanks

[salmon123]

well well ... lets start
GFS CMS & ECMWF They all have to change their forecasts ..
system might move north eastward.. or Dissipate..

[alhddar]

WXTLIST WMO=ABIO10
ABIO10 PGTW 041800 2011155 1752
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZJUN2011//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.0N
72.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 72.1E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DOES NOT
DEPICT ANY CLEAR BANDING FEATURES OR EVIDENCE OF A DISTINCT LLCC.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT POONA, JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE DISTURBANCE,
SHOW LIGHT WINDS WITH A 01 MB PRESSURE INCREASE OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR SURAT, JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
DISTURBANCE, SHOW LIGHT WINDS WITH A 02 MB PRESSURE DECREASE OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THESE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE
IS LIKELY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF
INDIA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER
THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF MARGINAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
WXTLIST: done

[supercane]

alhddar, that was yesterday's discussion from JTWC. Here's today's, upgraded development chance to medium
ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZJUN2011//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5N
72.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 72.1E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A WEAKLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 050819Z AMSRE MICROWAVE PASS
SHOWS WEAK BANDING FEATURES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DISTURBANCE, BUT OVERALL, THE CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE APPEARS
FRAGMENTED AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR
VERAVAL AND POONA, JUST ALONG THE COAST OF INDIA, INDICATE A MSLP OF
1002 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER
THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF MARGINAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS). MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[ugaap]

Best status from NRL 25 knots 1004 Mb. location 18.5N 71.2E

[supercane]

Still nothing from IMD on this (not a surprise, but still...).