WPAC: Invest 94W

[StormingB81]

Located 6N and at 128E..SSE of PI..

[Grifforzer]

JTWC
-------

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.6N 128.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100928Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT AN UNORGANIZED AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT
ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW IS LIMITED TO THE NORTH BY A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

PAGASA
-----

At 2:00 PM PhST, a Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 800 km east of southern Mindanao 6.0°N 133.0°E

[supercane]

Still listed on NRL, but probably not for long per the most recent JTWC update:
ABPW10 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZJUN2011//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110151ZJUN2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 110000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (SARIKA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 23.6N 117.1E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG,
CHINA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25
KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 110300) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.6N
128.6E, HAS MADE LANDFALL INTO MINDANAO. ITS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZJUN2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.4N 114.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. NEARBY SHIP
OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING SEA LEVEL PRESSURES OF 1007 TO 1008 MB.
AN ASCAT PASS DEPICTS STRONG WESTERLIES (20 KNOTS) TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND MAINTAINS EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.8N 137.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED AND UNORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC
IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

Upgraded to Medium:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N
114.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM EAST
OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CURVED LOW
LEVEL INFLOW. A 140840Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT POOR
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[StormingB81]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 13N 113E WNW SLOWLY.

[Extratropical94]

JMA 1800Z:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 13N 114E NNW SLOWLY.

[supercane]

WWJP25 RJTD 150000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 150000.
WARNING VALID 160000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 29N 130E 33N 132E
34N 150E 42N 143E 50N 156E 60N 164E 60N 180E 30N 180E 27N 160E 27N
140E 29N 130E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 31N 121E EAST 20 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 41N 148E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 990 HPA AT 45N 171E ESE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 14N 114E NNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 40N 136E ESE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 46N 149E SE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 26N 166E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N 108E TO 28N 115E 31N 121E 30N 130E 29N 136E
30N 143E 33N 153E 34N 160E 36N 170E 41N 180E.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Still quite disorganized, with the "center" in between the 2 blobs of clouds.


No Dvorak classifications from either KNES or PGTW.

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZJUN2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
<snip>
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.9N 113.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 445 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, CHINA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY. A
150221Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 10 TO 15 KNOT CENTRAL WINDS AND STRONGER 15
TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY. A 15/00Z SHIP
OBSERVATION LOCATED 60NM TO THE SOUTHEAST INDICATES 1007MB AND 11
KNOT SURFACE WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LIMITING
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[supercane]

Still being analyzed as a TD by JMA as of 12Z:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 16N 114E NORTH SLOWLY.

But looks disorganized on IR satellite:


And circulation not really evident on ASCAT:

[supercane]

JMA still keeping this as a TD at 18Z:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 17N 114E NORTH 10 KT.

But JTWC just issued an update dissipating the area:
ABPW10 PGTW 152030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/152030Z-160600ZJUN2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
<snip>
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9N
113.6E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM, AND DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(3).//
NNNN

[supercane]

And now JMA acknowledges the fizz-out in their 00Z analysis, as there is no longer a low yet alone a TD analyzed in the vicinity.
Latest vis:

Bones stopped by earlier.