WPAC: HAIMA - Remnants

[StormingB81]

They are starting to pop up all over the place now...

Still awaiting the details they are just now putting it on the NRL site and awaiting the location of it...

NRL is giving me an error page when I click on it..don't know if that is because it is just being put up or what..

Located:

[cycloneye]

Position= 5.5N-130.7W

[StormingB81]

Thank you it just came up on mine..Right next to 96W...wonder what they will do next to eachother..

[StormingB81]

JTWC has it as low on sat photo but not text...look for it soon

[Grifforzer]

They are starting to pop up all over the place now...

Still awaiting the details they are just now putting it on the NRL site and awaiting the location of it...

NRL is giving me an error page when I click on it..don't know if that is because it is just being put up or what..

Located:

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc11/WPAC/

NRL Directory if you can not access the website or its products.

[StormingB81]

So I placed that low stuff maybe they moved to quick cause it is off jtwc now..guess we will watch and see

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZJUN2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N 130.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A
150040Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 15 KNOT WINDS TIGHTLY TURNING. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY STILL DEPICTS UNORGANIZED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
<snip>

[RobWESTPACWX]

I put a video out on my thoughts today on this.. Really do think that is could develop up there. I do note the two seperate lows that seemed to have developed in the PI sea, looks like the one to the right is going to win the fight for survival between the two.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS5ZXsmsJdk[/youtube]

[supercane]

JMA 12Z analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 08N 132E WNW SLOWLY.

NRL: .97WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-68N-1293E.

[supercane]

JTWC upgrades to medium:
ABPW10 PGTW 152030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/152030Z-160600ZJUN2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9N
130.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 128.7E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST
OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS UNORGANIZED FLARING
CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
151325Z ASCAT PASS MISSED THE LLCC, BUT DOES SHOW STRONG WESTERLIES
FLOWING INTO THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A 151707Z AMSU PASS
SHOWS SOME INDICATIONS OF THE CONVECTION ORGANIZING, BUT IT IS TOO
EARLY TO CONFIRM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS THE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW AND
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
<snip>
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM, AND DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(3).//
NNNN

18Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 130E NW SLOWLY.

[StormingB81]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 130E NW SLOWLY.

[supercane]

00Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 130E WNW SLOWLY.

Latest vis:


Latest ASCAT suggestive of low circulation even though west side not scanned:

[supercane]

JTWC daily update:
ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZJUN2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2N
128.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 129.6E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST
OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CURVED
INFLOW AND FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 160021Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A
10 TO 15 KNOT LLCC WITH STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD AID IN DEVELOPMENT. A 152356Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE DOES NOT SHOW ANY IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS). HOWEVER, A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON THIS SIDE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) <snip>
(3) <snip>
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN



00Z GFS maintains consistency with prior runs in predicting intensification with NNW track E of Philippines, close to N Taiwan, into China.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PGTW 161630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.5N 129.1E TO 12.8N 127.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 161130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.7N 129.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N
129.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 129.0E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST
OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
CYCLONIC TURNING READILY EVIDENT IN THE DEEP, PULSING CONVECTION
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 161138Z TRMM PASS
SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC
ALONG WITH FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 161303Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY WELL FORMED, SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION WITH A
CLOSED RING OF 20KT WINDS AND 25KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) THAT WAS IN THE AREA HAS MIGRATED TO THE
NORTH OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE UPPER LEVEL NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO MOVE BACK OVER THE SYSTEM AND IMPROVE OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171630Z.
//
NNNN

[supercane]

Latest IR from NRL. Note that NRL has this listed as 06W.SIX, so it appears that JTWC will update this to a TD at 21Z:


Latest JTWC Dvorak estimate T1.5/1.5:
TPPN10 PGTW 161826
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (E OF PALAU)
B. 16/1732Z
C. 9.0N
D. 129.5E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOG10 YIELDS .20 WRAP,
RESULTING IN 1.0DT. PT CAME OUT TO 1.5. PT USED TO DETERMINE FT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
SMITH

We'll see if JMA follows suit in their 18Z analysis. As of 12Z:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 09N 129E NNW SLOWLY.

PAGASA was still calling this a low pressure area last time I checked.

Earlier ASCAT showed clear circulation, although to the east of most of the convection:

[ManilaTC]

The Sixth TC of the 2011 WPAC Season.

Warnings are to be out in about an hour or 2.

271
TPPN10 PGTW 161925 COR

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (E OF MINDANAO)

B. 16/1732Z

C. 9.0N

D. 129.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOG10 YIELDS A .20 WRAP,
RESULTING IN A 1.0DT. PT COMES OUT TO 1.5. PT USED TO DETERMINE
FT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/1656Z 8.9N 129.5E MMHS


SMITH

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 9.0N 129.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.0N 129.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 10.3N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 11.5N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.7N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 13.9N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.7N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.9N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 129.4E.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 161630Z
JUN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 161630 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
//

[StormingB81]

Suprised on how very little they have this system developing...Max winds it at 35 Knots...gotta look at the conditions around it..

[StormingB81]

From JMA:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 128E NNW 10 KT.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Suprised on how very little they have this system developing...Max winds it at 35 Knots...gotta look at the conditions around it..

I think time is something this system does not have though, unless it rapidly intensifies in the next 24 hours it is going to run in to a wall of shear just N of the Luzon Strait associated with the TUTT.

On that note, I think it will intensify quickly and it could be slightly stronger, but nothing more than a max of 45kts. (Just my thoughts)