EPAC: BEATRIZ - Remnants
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- cycloneye
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EPAC: BEATRIZ - Remnants
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep922011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201106161839
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2011, DB, O, 2011061612, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922011
EP, 92, 2011061518, , BEST, 0, 121N, 916W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2011061600, , BEST, 0, 122N, 917W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2011061606, , BEST, 0, 122N, 918W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2011061612, , BEST, 0, 122N, 918W, 20, 1008, DB, 0
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
Not well organized yet.
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep922011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201106161839
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2011, DB, O, 2011061612, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922011
EP, 92, 2011061518, , BEST, 0, 121N, 916W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2011061600, , BEST, 0, 122N, 917W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2011061606, , BEST, 0, 122N, 918W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2011061612, , BEST, 0, 122N, 918W, 20, 1008, DB, 0
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
Not well organized yet.
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- cycloneye
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Re:
HURAKAN wrote:Good model support, should be Beatriz in a few days
And it may threat Mexico,or at least move close to the coast,something that Adrian didn't do.
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
Up to 40%
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
18z Best Track
EP, 92, 2011061618, , BEST, 0, 123N, 919W, 20, 1008, DB
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
EP, 92, 2011061618, , BEST, 0, 123N, 919W, 20, 1008, DB
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
First model plots for 92E.
Code: Select all
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1842 UTC THU JUN 16 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922011) 20110616 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110616 1800 110617 0600 110617 1800 110618 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 91.9W 13.1N 93.3W 13.7N 94.9W 14.0N 96.9W
BAMD 12.3N 91.9W 12.6N 93.2W 12.7N 94.6W 12.6N 96.6W
BAMM 12.3N 91.9W 12.9N 93.2W 13.4N 94.6W 13.6N 96.4W
LBAR 12.3N 91.9W 12.7N 92.6W 13.5N 94.1W 14.5N 96.5W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110618 1800 110619 1800 110620 1800 110621 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 99.2W 14.4N 103.9W 14.9N 107.4W 15.3N 108.4W
BAMD 12.6N 99.2W 13.3N 105.0W 13.9N 109.8W 13.8N 113.5W
BAMM 13.7N 98.8W 14.3N 104.2W 14.9N 108.8W 14.9N 111.6W
LBAR 15.9N 99.7W 19.8N 106.0W 23.7N 108.4W 28.3N 103.0W
SHIP 49KTS 61KTS 67KTS 58KTS
DSHP 49KTS 61KTS 67KTS 58KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 91.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 91.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 91.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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ECM no where near as agressive with this system as it was with Adrian but it does appear that the model does develop something at least.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
So, are the storms going to be more prevalent in the Pacific than in the Atlantic this year?
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- HURAKAN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
sunnyday wrote:So, are the storms going to be more prevalent in the Pacific than in the Atlantic this year?
no, the Atlantic should have more storms at the end of the season than the EPAC
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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- cycloneye
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- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
00z Best Track
EP, 92, 2011061700, , BEST, 0, 116N, 941W, 20, 1008, DB
EP, 92, 2011061700, , BEST, 0, 116N, 941W, 20, 1008, DB
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170538
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD AREA LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING CONCENTRATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR GENERALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
ABPZ20 KNHC 170538
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD AREA LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING CONCENTRATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR GENERALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171135
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUN 17 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
ABPZ20 KNHC 171135
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUN 17 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171745
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 17 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
ABPZ20 KNHC 171745
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 17 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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_____________________
There can be only one Hypercane.....
There can be only one Hypercane.....
- brunota2003
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Was looking at the MIMIC-TPW for the EPAC (Caution, loop, high bandwidth... http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html ), the rotation in the area over the past several hours has picked up a lot.
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- MGC
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
92E has that broad tumbleweed look...slowly getting better organized....MGC
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