EPAC: BEATRIZ - Remnants

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

Up to 55kts.

EP, 02, 2011062012, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1027W, 55, 995, TS

[brunota2003]

I think Recon is going to get into the system and find it stronger than the sats are thinking...quite remarkable organization...if it closes off that eyewall, look out! But it also seems like land is starting to take it's toll.

[Chacor]

Recon flying now. Obs are coming in on the Atlantic (NT) headers raher than the East Pac (PZ) ones, weirdly.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
800 AM PDT MON JUN 20 2011

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF BEATRIZ CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A
LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN A CDO-LIKE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE
TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE FIRST
FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A RATHER AMORPHOUS-LOOKING CLOUD PATTERN.
OVERALL...THE CYCLONE STILL APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON
THE 1200 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THAT TIME. AFTER 48 HOURS
BEATRIZ SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM CLOSELY AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED
CLOSER TO THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND A BIT NORTH OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD 320/8...BUT
REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. BEATRIZ IS GAINING LATITUDE DUE TO
WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AS A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...THE
RIDGE WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD RESULT IN BEATRIZ TURNING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST BY 72 HOURS.
THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THIS TURN WILL BE
CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ COMES TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS...
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND MOVE WESTWARD IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. DESPITE THE MORE NORTHERLY INITIAL POSITION...MUCH
OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE LEFT FOR THIS CYCLE. THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON CONTINUITY AND IS ESSENTIALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE BEATRIZ LATER TODAY...AND PROVIDE VALUABLE INFORMATION
ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
LATER TODAY. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THOSE
AREAS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 16.3N 102.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 17.1N 103.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 18.1N 104.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 19.8N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 20.0N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 20.0N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 15:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Beatriz (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 03

Observation Time: Monday, 15:10Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 24.0N 94.7W
Location: 235 miles (378 km) to the ENE (59°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -17°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -27°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,590 geopotential meters

[cycloneye]

Who wants to post the google earth graphics of the mission?

URNT15 KNHC 201540
AF302 0102E BEATRIZ HDOB 14 20110620
153100 2229N 09557W 3926 07732 0417 -150 -269 074006 006 020 000 00
153130 2227N 09559W 3926 07733 0417 -150 -269 078007 007 021 000 00
153200 2225N 09600W 3926 07732 0417 -150 -270 100007 007 020 000 00
153230 2223N 09602W 3927 07731 0417 -150 -270 100007 008 020 000 00
153300 2221N 09604W 3926 07732 0417 -150 -270 100007 007 020 000 00
153330 2219N 09606W 3926 07733 0417 -153 -270 104007 007 021 000 00
153400 2216N 09607W 3925 07735 0418 -151 -269 119008 008 021 000 00
153430 2214N 09609W 3925 07734 0418 -150 -269 129010 011 020 000 00
153500 2212N 09611W 3926 07731 0417 -149 -269 132011 011 022 000 30
153530 2210N 09612W 3927 07732 0418 -150 -270 132011 011 021 000 00
153600 2208N 09614W 3926 07734 0418 -152 -270 129011 011 021 000 00
153630 2206N 09616W 3925 07734 0418 -152 -270 127012 012 021 000 00
153700 2204N 09617W 3926 07735 0419 -148 -269 127013 013 021 000 00
153730 2202N 09619W 3926 07734 0420 -145 -269 123013 014 021 001 00
153800 2200N 09621W 3926 07734 0419 -147 -269 127013 014 021 000 00
153830 2158N 09622W 3927 07734 0421 -146 -269 126014 014 020 000 00
153900 2156N 09624W 3926 07738 0421 -145 -270 128015 015 021 001 00
153930 2154N 09626W 3927 07733 0420 -146 -272 128015 015 020 000 00
154000 2151N 09627W 3925 07739 0422 -149 -272 131015 015 020 000 00
154030 2149N 09629W 3927 07734 0422 -147 -271 126015 016 020 000 00

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... looking quite impressive

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 201551
AF302 0102E BEATRIZ HDOB 15 20110620
154100 2147N 09631W 3926 07738 0422 -146 -271 123015 015 020 000 00
154130 2145N 09632W 3926 07736 0422 -145 -270 122015 015 021 000 00
154200 2143N 09634W 3926 07738 0423 -148 -270 118013 013 021 000 00
154230 2141N 09636W 3926 07738 0422 -145 -270 113014 014 021 000 03
154300 2139N 09637W 3926 07740 0424 -145 -270 107014 015 /// /// 03
154330 2137N 09639W 3926 07740 0424 -145 -270 105015 015 /// /// 03
154400 2135N 09641W 3926 07741 0425 -145 -270 107015 015 /// /// 03
154430 2133N 09642W 3926 07740 0426 -145 -271 102015 016 /// /// 03
154500 2131N 09644W 3926 07742 0426 -145 -271 099016 016 /// /// 03
154530 2129N 09646W 3926 07740 0425 -142 -271 099016 016 /// /// 03
154600 2126N 09647W 3926 07737 0423 -140 -271 097016 017 /// /// 03
154630 2124N 09649W 3926 07737 0423 -138 -271 093015 017 /// /// 03
154700 2122N 09651W 3926 07737 0423 -135 -271 091014 015 /// /// 03
154730 2120N 09652W 3926 07740 0424 -139 -271 095016 017 /// /// 03
154800 2118N 09654W 3926 07740 0423 -140 -271 100016 017 /// /// 03
154830 2116N 09656W 3930 07730 0423 -140 -271 093016 016 /// /// 03
154900 2114N 09657W 3926 07739 0423 -140 -270 091017 017 /// /// 03
154930 2112N 09659W 3926 07738 0423 -139 -269 090016 016 /// /// 03
155000 2110N 09701W 3926 07738 0423 -139 -269 091015 016 /// /// 03
155030 2107N 09703W 3926 07741 0424 -139 -269 092016 016 /// /// 03
$$

[cycloneye]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 15:47Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Beatriz (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 04

Observation Time: Monday, 15:40Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 21.9N 96.5W
Location: 89 miles (144 km) to the ESE (105°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 130° at 15 knots (From the SE at ~ 17.2 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -15°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -27°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,600 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 19 knots (~ 21.9mph)

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 201601
AF302 0102E BEATRIZ HDOB 16 20110620
155100 2105N 09704W 3926 07741 0425 -140 -269 091016 017 /// /// 03
155130 2103N 09706W 3926 07737 0422 -140 -269 090017 017 /// /// 03
155200 2101N 09708W 3926 07738 0423 -140 -268 089017 017 /// /// 03
155230 2059N 09709W 3926 07736 0421 -140 -269 090017 017 /// /// 03
155300 2057N 09711W 3923 07738 0419 -141 -270 099016 016 /// /// 03
155330 2055N 09713W 3926 07733 0419 -140 -269 099015 015 /// /// 03
155400 2053N 09714W 3924 07740 0420 -142 -268 108013 013 /// /// 03
155430 2050N 09716W 3925 07737 0420 -141 -269 109012 012 /// /// 03
155500 2048N 09718W 3926 07737 0420 -145 -269 107010 010 /// /// 03
155530 2046N 09719W 3925 07738 0421 -145 -269 107009 009 /// /// 03
155600 2044N 09721W 3926 07737 0422 -145 -268 113008 009 /// /// 03
155630 2042N 09723W 3926 07736 0421 -141 -268 121008 008 /// /// 03
155700 2040N 09724W 3926 07736 0422 -140 -268 124008 008 /// /// 03
155730 2038N 09726W 3925 07739 0422 -140 -269 127007 008 /// /// 03
155800 2036N 09728W 3927 07735 0422 -140 -270 132007 007 /// /// 03
155830 2034N 09730W 3926 07738 0422 -140 -270 132006 007 /// /// 03
155900 2032N 09732W 3927 07735 0422 -136 -270 117008 008 /// /// 03
155930 2030N 09733W 3926 07738 0423 -135 -269 108009 009 /// /// 03
160000 2028N 09735W 3927 07734 0421 -135 -268 101009 010 /// /// 03
160030 2026N 09737W 3926 07736 0422 -132 -268 098010 010 /// /// 03
$$

[brunota2003]

On lunch break...they added a flight to the schedule for tomorrow, as well:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 20 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-020

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 21/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0202E BEATRIZ
C. 21/1315Z
D. 18.7N 104.7W
E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 201611
AF302 0102E BEATRIZ HDOB 17 20110620
160100 2024N 09739W 3923 07742 0422 -130 -268 096010 011 /// /// 03
160130 2022N 09741W 3926 07736 0422 -130 -270 095010 010 /// /// 03
160200 2020N 09743W 3926 07738 0422 -132 -270 093009 010 /// /// 03
160230 2018N 09745W 3927 07736 0422 -132 -269 089009 010 /// /// 03
160300 2017N 09747W 3926 07737 0422 -130 -268 089010 010 /// /// 03
160330 2015N 09748W 3926 07739 0423 -130 -268 083010 010 /// /// 03
160400 2013N 09750W 3926 07740 0424 -130 -267 078010 010 /// /// 03
160430 2011N 09752W 3925 07740 0424 -130 -267 079009 010 /// /// 03
160500 2009N 09754W 3926 07742 0425 -130 -266 079009 010 /// /// 03
160530 2007N 09756W 3926 07742 0426 -129 -266 076009 010 /// /// 03
160600 2005N 09758W 3926 07739 0425 -125 -265 073011 011 /// /// 03
160630 2003N 09800W 3926 07743 0426 -130 -265 072009 009 /// /// 03
160700 2001N 09802W 3926 07740 0426 -127 -265 066009 009 /// /// 03
160730 1959N 09804W 3925 07743 0426 -125 -264 067009 009 /// /// 03
160800 1957N 09805W 3927 07738 0425 -125 -264 070009 009 /// /// 03
160830 1955N 09807W 3927 07738 0425 -125 -263 071008 009 /// /// 03
160900 1953N 09809W 3926 07740 0424 -125 -263 068008 009 /// /// 03
160930 1953N 09809W 3926 07740 0425 -125 -261 072008 008 /// /// 03
161000 1949N 09813W 3926 07740 0426 -125 -262 082008 008 /// /// 03
161030 1947N 09815W 3925 07744 0427 -125 -262 098008 008 /// /// 03
$$
;

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 201621
AF302 0102E BEATRIZ HDOB 18 20110620
161100 1945N 09815W 3926 07739 0425 -130 -263 098007 008 /// /// 03
161130 1942N 09816W 3926 07741 0425 -132 -262 106007 007 /// /// 03
161200 1940N 09816W 3926 07740 0425 -135 -261 119006 006 /// /// 03
161230 1937N 09817W 3926 07740 0424 -138 -259 125006 006 /// /// 03
161300 1934N 09817W 3929 07734 0424 -137 -258 138005 006 /// /// 03
161330 1932N 09818W 3926 07743 0425 -144 -258 175009 011 /// /// 03
161400 1929N 09818W 3926 07740 0424 -145 -258 180010 011 /// /// 03
161430 1927N 09819W 3926 07739 0424 -144 -260 190010 011 /// /// 03
161500 1924N 09819W 3926 07739 0424 -151 -260 213012 014 /// /// 03
161530 1922N 09820W 3927 07739 0424 -152 -259 223014 015 /// /// 03
161600 1919N 09820W 3928 07735 0423 -147 -257 226011 013 /// /// 03
161630 1917N 09821W 3926 07738 0422 -143 -256 227009 010 /// /// 03
161700 1914N 09821W 3926 07738 0422 -146 -258 227010 010 /// /// 03
161730 1912N 09822W 3925 07739 0420 -146 -259 227010 010 /// /// 03
161800 1909N 09822W 3926 07735 0420 -145 -260 230010 010 /// /// 03
161830 1907N 09822W 3925 07738 0421 -149 -261 219013 014 /// /// 03
161900 1904N 09822W 3927 07734 0422 -147 -262 221014 014 /// /// 03
161930 1902N 09822W 3926 07737 0422 -147 -262 218013 014 /// /// 03
162000 1859N 09822W 3925 07739 0422 -156 -262 217012 012 /// /// 03
162030 1857N 09823W 3925 07740 0422 -157 -260 218014 014 /// /// 03
$$
;

[brunota2003]

I'm not certain...but it appears to me that the mid and low level centers are not stacked ontop of each other? It looks like the mid level center is pushed off to the NW of the surface center.

[cycloneye]

I'm not certain...but it appears to me that the mid and low level centers are not stacked ontop of each other? It looks like the mid level center is pushed off to the NW of the surface center.

The plane when it arrives in an hour will tell the real story.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 201631
AF302 0102E BEATRIZ HDOB 19 20110620
162100 1854N 09823W 3926 07737 0422 -160 -257 221014 014 /// /// 03
162130 1852N 09823W 3926 07736 0422 -164 -253 224013 014 /// /// 03
162200 1849N 09824W 3926 07739 0423 -167 -247 229011 012 /// /// 03
162230 1847N 09825W 3926 07739 0424 -170 -242 235010 010 /// /// 03
162300 1845N 09827W 3926 07741 0424 -167 -238 226010 011 /// /// 03
162330 1843N 09828W 3926 07737 0422 -172 -235 211009 010 /// /// 03
162400 1841N 09829W 3925 07739 0422 -169 -234 212010 011 /// /// 03
162430 1839N 09831W 3924 07741 0422 -170 -234 205012 012 /// /// 03
162500 1836N 09832W 3927 07735 0423 -170 -235 207011 012 /// /// 03
162530 1834N 09834W 3925 07740 0423 -168 -237 200012 013 /// /// 03
162600 1832N 09835W 3929 07732 0424 -166 -238 197013 014 /// /// 03
162630 1830N 09836W 3929 07736 0426 -165 -239 200012 013 /// /// 03
162700 1828N 09838W 3927 07741 0427 -165 -240 195011 011 /// /// 03
162730 1826N 09839W 3926 07741 0427 -165 -241 182010 011 /// /// 03
162800 1824N 09840W 3926 07742 0427 -165 -242 179010 010 /// /// 03
162830 1822N 09842W 3926 07742 0428 -165 -242 177008 010 /// /// 03
162900 1820N 09843W 3926 07741 0426 -165 -243 170007 008 /// /// 03
162930 1819N 09844W 3926 07743 0426 -167 -244 163007 007 /// /// 03
163000 1817N 09845W 3926 07742 0427 -169 -244 176011 013 /// /// 03
163030 1815N 09847W 3927 07742 0427 -158 -244 176009 011 /// /// 03
$$

[brunota2003]

I'm not certain...but it appears to me that the mid and low level centers are not stacked ontop of each other? It looks like the mid level center is pushed off to the NW of the surface center.

The plane when it arrives in an hour will tell the real story.

And I can't wait...hopefully I get off work early so I don't get too buried in data.

[cycloneye]

I suspect the lack of observations in the past half an hour is because of the tall mountains the plane is flying thru. Anyone has the google graphics?

[cycloneye]

This observation was from 12:15 PM EDT.

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 16:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Beatriz (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05

Observation Time: Monday, 16:15Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 19.4N 98.3W
Location: 54 miles (87 km) to the E (91°) from México City, Distrito Federal, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 220° at 14 knots (From the SW at ~ 16.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -16°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -26°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,600 geopotential meters

[cycloneye]

Just NE of Acapulco.

URNT15 KNHC 201651
AF302 0102E BEATRIZ HDOB 21 20110620
164100 1739N 09910W 3927 07748 0435 -150 -186 190016 016 /// /// 03
164130 1738N 09911W 3926 07751 0435 -150 -184 184017 017 /// /// 03
164200 1736N 09912W 3926 07748 0435 -149 -182 179015 016 /// /// 03
164230 1735N 09913W 3923 07753 0435 -150 -179 182016 017 /// /// 03
164300 1733N 09914W 3925 07750 0433 -150 -176 178018 019 /// /// 03
164330 1731N 09915W 3925 07749 0432 -150 -173 180020 022 /// /// 03
164400 1730N 09916W 3925 07749 0431 -150 -170 180022 023 /// /// 03
164430 1728N 09918W 3926 07745 0429 -150 -167 178020 022 /// /// 03
164500 1726N 09919W 3926 07745 0430 -150 -167 177016 016 /// /// 03
164530 1724N 09920W 3926 07743 0429 -150 -166 170016 017 /// /// 03
164600 1723N 09921W 3927 07743 0429 -146 -167 159013 015 /// /// 03
164630 1721N 09922W 3926 07746 0431 -146 -166 144011 013 /// /// 03
164700 1719N 09923W 3927 07744 0430 -145 -165 147018 020 /// /// 03
164730 1717N 09925W 3926 07744 0429 -145 -165 157017 017 /// /// 03
164800 1715N 09926W 3925 07745 0428 -145 -164 161015 016 /// /// 03
164830 1714N 09927W 3926 07742 0427 -145 -165 155012 012 /// /// 03
164900 1712N 09928W 3926 07743 0427 -145 -165 158016 019 /// /// 03
164930 1710N 09929W 3926 07742 0426 -145 -164 170018 020 /// /// 03
165000 1708N 09931W 3926 07740 0425 -145 -163 170020 021 /// /// 03
165030 1706N 09932W 3925 07740 0424 -144 -160 161018 019 /// /// 03
$$