WPAC: INVEST 96W
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3535
- Age: 29
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
WPAC: INVEST 96W
0 likes
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
- StormingB81
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5676
- Age: 42
- Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
- Location: Rockledge, Florida
- StormingB81
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5676
- Age: 42
- Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
- Location: Rockledge, Florida
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 9.0N 139.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION INCREASING AND CONSOLIDATING
AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 021212Z ASCAT PASS JUST EAST OF THE AREA
SHOWS CLEAR TURNING INTO THE LLCC. A 021101Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM, WHILE THE 37GHZ SLICE REVEALS BROAD AND LOOSE BANDING
AROUND THE LLCC. THE 021200Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
ESTABLISHES THAT THE CIRCULATION EXISTS IN A MILDLY DIFFLUENT
REGION SOUTHEAST OF AN ANTICYCLONE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ESTIMATED AT 10 KNOTS AND SEA WATER TEMPERATURES ARE 30 TO 31
DEGREES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOME IMPINGEMENT ON
OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM BUT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS
VIGOROUS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE
CIRCULATION WITH OTHER MINOR CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION INCREASING AND CONSOLIDATING
AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 021212Z ASCAT PASS JUST EAST OF THE AREA
SHOWS CLEAR TURNING INTO THE LLCC. A 021101Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM, WHILE THE 37GHZ SLICE REVEALS BROAD AND LOOSE BANDING
AROUND THE LLCC. THE 021200Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
ESTABLISHES THAT THE CIRCULATION EXISTS IN A MILDLY DIFFLUENT
REGION SOUTHEAST OF AN ANTICYCLONE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ESTIMATED AT 10 KNOTS AND SEA WATER TEMPERATURES ARE 30 TO 31
DEGREES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOME IMPINGEMENT ON
OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM BUT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS
VIGOROUS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE
CIRCULATION WITH OTHER MINOR CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
0 likes
- StormingB81
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5676
- Age: 42
- Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
- Location: Rockledge, Florida
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3407
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
My bet is now on 96W!
I like using this chart in determining the wind shear. Hoho. The area where the LLCC is located has around 10kts wind shear. If the shear continues to decrease near its area then the chances might be up.
I like using this chart in determining the wind shear. Hoho. The area where the LLCC is located has around 10kts wind shear. If the shear continues to decrease near its area then the chances might be up.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3407
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
There is something wierd about the latest ECM runs. I know it's long-range but just for the sake of curiosity, is it possible for a system to be somewhere near Okinawa then track W to WSW, stalling then going NE towards Okinawa again?
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 1215
- Age: 40
- Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
- Location: Hong Kong
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
It is a weird run and looks like some sort of Fujiwara effect between the system entering the SCS and another weak circulation over Okinawa. I suspect it's going to be a complicated set up over the next few days.
0 likes
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
whatever happens with this large system, we must be ready.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 1215
- Age: 40
- Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
- Location: Hong Kong
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
Upgraded to MEDIUM by our friends in Honolulu:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
133.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 134.5E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTH OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
IMPROVED CURVED CONVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER
PERIPHERIES. A 032342Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS CURVED
CONVECTION. A 040048Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS ONLY THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE LLCC WITH 5- TO 10-KNOT WINDS AND STRONGER WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES INDICATING A MONSOON
DEPRESSION-LIKE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES THE SYSTEM
SEVERAL DEGREES SOUTH OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER
MODERATE (25-30 KNOTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
133.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 134.5E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTH OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
IMPROVED CURVED CONVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER
PERIPHERIES. A 032342Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS CURVED
CONVECTION. A 040048Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS ONLY THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE LLCC WITH 5- TO 10-KNOT WINDS AND STRONGER WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES INDICATING A MONSOON
DEPRESSION-LIKE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES THE SYSTEM
SEVERAL DEGREES SOUTH OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER
MODERATE (25-30 KNOTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
0 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 637
- Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
- Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)
-
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 1215
- Age: 40
- Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
- Location: Hong Kong
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
When they start throwing up invests within 10 nautical miles of each other I always get confused
Thanks for picking up on that!
Thanks for picking up on that!
0 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 637
- Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
- Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139089
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W
This one is no longer at NRL.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 100 guests