WPAC: INVEST 96W

[Extratropical94]

9.0N 139.5E

Infrared

[StormingB81]

Which one will become more dominate is now the question.

[StormingB81]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 9.0N 139.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION INCREASING AND CONSOLIDATING
AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 021212Z ASCAT PASS JUST EAST OF THE AREA
SHOWS CLEAR TURNING INTO THE LLCC. A 021101Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM, WHILE THE 37GHZ SLICE REVEALS BROAD AND LOOSE BANDING
AROUND THE LLCC. THE 021200Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
ESTABLISHES THAT THE CIRCULATION EXISTS IN A MILDLY DIFFLUENT
REGION SOUTHEAST OF AN ANTICYCLONE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ESTIMATED AT 10 KNOTS AND SEA WATER TEMPERATURES ARE 30 TO 31
DEGREES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOME IMPINGEMENT ON
OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM BUT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS
VIGOROUS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE
CIRCULATION WITH OTHER MINOR CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[StormingB81]

Can't get any higher then this!!!

[dexterlabio]

My bet is now on 96W!

I like using this chart in determining the wind shear. Hoho. The area where the LLCC is located has around 10kts wind shear. If the shear continues to decrease near its area then the chances might be up.

[dexterlabio]

There is something wierd about the latest ECM runs. I know it's long-range but just for the sake of curiosity, is it possible for a system to be somewhere near Okinawa then track W to WSW, stalling then going NE towards Okinawa again?

[Typhoon Hunter]

It is a weird run and looks like some sort of Fujiwara effect between the system entering the SCS and another weak circulation over Okinawa. I suspect it's going to be a complicated set up over the next few days.

[euro6208]

whatever happens with this large system, we must be ready.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Upgraded to MEDIUM by our friends in Honolulu:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
133.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 134.5E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTH OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
IMPROVED CURVED CONVECTION INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER
PERIPHERIES. A 032342Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS CURVED
CONVECTION. A 040048Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS ONLY THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE LLCC WITH 5- TO 10-KNOT WINDS AND STRONGER WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES INDICATING A MONSOON
DEPRESSION-LIKE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES THE SYSTEM
SEVERAL DEGREES SOUTH OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER
MODERATE (25-30 KNOTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[phwxenthusiast]

that's for 94W... 96W has dissipated and is now off of NRLMRY's site...

[Typhoon Hunter]

When they start throwing up invests within 10 nautical miles of each other I always get confused

Thanks for picking up on that!

[phwxenthusiast]

haha, good one! yeah i wonder if they have a set of criteria on when to put up an invest and when to remove them...

[Chacor]

It's at their (and JTWC's/NHC's) discretion. I've known of at least one occasion they've kept an invest/storm (can't remember) on NRL because someone emailed them saying the system was worth tracking over land as it continued to display convective activity near its centre.

[cycloneye]

This one is no longer at NRL.