EPAC: CALVIN - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

I think this storm may reach low end Hurricane status.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011
200 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW LOCATED NEAR
OR UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE OVERCAST. THE OUTFLOW HAS ALSO
EXPANDED TO THE SOUTH...WEST...AND NORTH. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND BASED ON THE
RECENT EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO
BE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. I PREFER TO WAIT FOR A
LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION AND HIGHER T-NUMBERS TO UPGRADE THE
SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE HAS LESS THAN A COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN
SOME BEFORE MOVING OVER AN AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD WATER SOUTH OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT
12 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN THE RIDGE IN PLACE...SUGGESTING
A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE NORTHWARD COMPONENT INDICATED BY THE
GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR...THE LATEST CONSENSUS SHOWS A MORE NORTHWEST
TRACK IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW OVER COLD WATERS BY
THEN...AND MOST LIKELY WILL MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 15.4N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 16.0N 104.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 16.8N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 17.5N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 18.0N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 19.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Rgv20]

It looks like Calvin for the next advisory.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Hello Calvin!!

EP, 03, 2011070800, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1037W, 35, 1003, TS

[cycloneye]

WTPZ33 KNHC 080231
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011
800 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2011

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE
2011 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 104.3W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST. CALVIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011
800 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2011

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CLOUD PATTERN WENT
THROUGH A BRIEF BURSTING PHASE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS
SINCE DECREASED IN BOTH VERTICAL EXTENT AND AREAL COVERAGE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T3.0/45 KT AND
T2.5/35 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE T2.9/43 KT.
MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
IS SHEARED AT LEAST 45 NMI TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN INCREASED TO
35 KT DESPITE THE HIGHER INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH STILL MAKES
THE CYCLONE THE THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/12 IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION...
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND EARLIER MICROWAVE FIXES.
CALVIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS
WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS
BASICALLY MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CALVIN MOVING IN
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE HWRF...GFDL...AND GFDN MODELS TAKE THE
CYCLONE NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKENING RIDGE BY 36 HOURS...WHICH
APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. THESE
MODELS ARE...THEREFORE...CONSIDERED TO BE OUTLIER SOLUTIONS. BY 72
HOURS...CALVIN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER 23C SSTS...AND BE STEERED MORE
WESTWARD BY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ENVELOPE.

EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20 KT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO NEAR
10 KT BY 24-36 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 48 HOURS...AT WHICH
TIME CALVIN IS FORECAST TO BE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 16.0N 104.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 16.6N 105.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 17.4N 107.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 18.0N 109.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 18.5N 110.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 19.4N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0000Z 20.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Hurricane Jed]

I think this storm may reach low end Hurricane status.

I think so too. It looks really well organized despite only having winds of 40 mph.

[Hurricanehink]

Fun fact if Calvin becomes a hurricane. It would be the first season since 1995 in which the first three EPAC named storms became hurricanes.

[KWT]

Hmmm interesting system, I agree its got at least a shot at being a hurricane though it may just end up missing out on that.

[Nimbus]

As Calvin strengthens he is building a high pressure dome. As is often the case the upper level winds are being amplified in Gulf of Mexico.

[Macrocane]

Calvin it's not wasting it's time, it's a little fighter

[Extratropical94]

Rapid intensification like no one expected... from 50 to 70 mph in one advisory!

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 081458
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2011

...CALVIN NEARING HURRICANE INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 107.6W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST. CALVIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THE CYCLONE
SHOULD DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASE TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CALVIN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
TODAY...BUT SOME WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA

[supercane]

Latest vis:

As said in the latest discussion by NHC, "THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF CALVIN HAS IMPROVED AS AN EYE-LIKE
FEATURE IS EVIDENT FROM BOTH THE 1136Z SSMI IMAGERY..."

[Hurricane Jed]

Ima thinking a peak of 90-100. The fact that its already at 70 and its got the rest of today and tonight to strengthen.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Calvin!! at 2 PM PDT

EP, 03, 2011070818, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1080W, 65, 987, HU

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2011

ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS NOT AS LARGE AS IT WAS ONE OR TWO
HOURS AGO...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES AS WELL AS MICROWAVE DATA
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE. BASED ON THE CURRENT
CLOUD PATTERN AND THE INCREASE IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS SINCE THIS
MORNING...CALVIN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATER WHERE THE CONVECTION HAS
BEGUN TO WEAKEN. IT APPEARS THAT CALVIN HAS REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY AND ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR
CALVIN TO WEAKEN.

CALVIN HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR
275 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT FORECAST TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...CALVIN IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WHICH WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN TO MEANDER EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING CALVIN ON A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BUT VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...BY THEN CALVIN
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 16.3N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.4N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 17.0N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 17.5N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 18.0N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 19.0N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z 19.5N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[plasticup]

I know a few of you called it, but for me this was completely unexpected.

3/3 in the EPAC!

[KWT]

Good looking system with a decent eye and generally good structure. Cool to see another hurricane!

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2011

RECENT CONVENTIONAL AND EARLIER MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-/UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURES MAY HAVE
FINALLY BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED. IN ADDITION...A WARM SPOT HAS
DEVELOPED NEARLY IN THE CENTER OF THE SMALLER BUT BETTER-DEFINED
CDO CLOUD PATTERN...SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF A MORE VERTICAL EYE
STRUCTURE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT AND 65 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 70 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10...BUT THIS IS LIKELY JUST A TEMPORARY
MOTION. CALVIN HAS WOBBLED TO THE RIGHT A LITTLE BIT...PROBABLY AS
A RESULT OF THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL EYES BECOMING VERTICALLY
ALIGNED. AS A RESULT...CALVIN IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO A MORE
WESTERLY BASE COURSE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO DUE TO THE
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP CALVIN MOVING IN A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER SUB-24C SSTS. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
VERTICALLY SHALLOW...IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
MOVES INTO A REGION OF ABNORMALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR
THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AND EXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS...
SUGGESTING THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS ABATED SOMEWHAT.
THEREFORE...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS OR SO SINCE CALVIN WILL STILL BE OVER AT LEAST 26C SSTS.
HOWEVER...BY 12 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER
WATER AND ALSO BEGIN INGESTING MORE STABLE AIR AS INDICATED BY A
LARGE FIELD OF LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS LOCATED JUST WEST OF
CALVIN. AS A RESULT OF THE POOR OCEANIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE...STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AND AT A FASTER RATE THAN INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM
STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 16.6N 109.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 17.0N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 17.5N 112.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 17.9N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 18.4N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 19.3N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z 19.5N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to Tropical Storm

TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2011


THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND NOW CONSISTS
OF A SHAPELESS AREA OF WEAKENING CONVECTION. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO
50 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...THE T-NUMBERS
SUGGEST A STRONGER CYCLONE. CALVIN IS ALREADY OVER COOL WATERS...SO
THE CYCLONE WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

CALVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10
KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN A DAY OR
SO...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND BE STEERED
BY THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...CALVIN OR ITS REMNANTS WILL PROBABLY
DRIFT WESTWARD OR MEANDER UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 17.1N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 17.5N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 18.5N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1200Z 19.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Cyclenall]

A fairly easy forecast from the looks of things for the NHC, sure they would hope most systems eventually end up being like this!

Looks like a tough forecast it was, 20 knots off from peak intensity from the first advisory. Calvin defied the vast majority of forecasts and model predictions.

The Epac now has three hurricanes and the Atlantic has none so far. Interesting fact about how its been 16 years since that last happened.