Code orange from NHC:
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUL 5 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN
EPAC: CALVIN - Remnants
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
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- Contact:
EPAC: CALVIN - Remnants
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Jul 09, 2011 9:48 pm, edited 7 times in total.
Reason: Edited title to put the word Remnants
Reason: Edited title to put the word Remnants
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
ECM doesn't do anything with this system at all whilst the GFS does make something of it though keeps it fairly weak and weakens it further after 96hrs.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
cycloneye
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- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
SHIP tops intensity as a moderate tropical storm that stays offshore the Mexican coast.
Code: Select all
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0527 UTC WED JUL 6 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932011) 20110706 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110706 0600 110706 1800 110707 0600 110707 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 95.6W 14.3N 97.2W 14.9N 98.8W 15.8N 100.6W
BAMD 13.6N 95.6W 14.3N 97.6W 15.1N 99.8W 16.0N 102.1W
BAMM 13.6N 95.6W 14.5N 97.6W 15.3N 99.6W 16.1N 101.8W
LBAR 13.6N 95.6W 14.4N 97.3W 15.5N 99.6W 16.7N 102.1W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 34KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 34KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110708 0600 110709 0600 110710 0600 110711 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 102.3W 18.7N 105.4W 20.0N 108.0W 21.0N 110.4W
BAMD 16.7N 104.5W 17.6N 109.0W 18.3N 113.3W 19.0N 117.4W
BAMM 16.8N 104.1W 17.8N 108.6W 18.6N 113.2W 19.5N 117.8W
LBAR 17.8N 104.4W 19.9N 108.5W 22.2N 111.2W 25.3N 111.6W
SHIP 40KTS 50KTS 45KTS 34KTS
DSHP 40KTS 50KTS 45KTS 34KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 95.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 94.0W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.4N LONM24 = 92.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
Up to 50%
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 6 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT AROUND 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 6 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT AROUND 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
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- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
70 Percent.
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
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Hybridstorm_November2001
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Re:
plasticup wrote:All signs point to a minor fish storm. Maybe I just don't know enough meteorology to find these little guys interesting.
I like fish storms (both minor and major), they often produce beautiful satellite images and are (unless they encounter a ship) mostly harmless.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
Oh sure, sometimes. Hurricane Flossie was was one of my favorite storms of the last decade. But there is no chance that this tiddlywink will become anything impressive. And like I said, without impressive satellite presentation I don't know enough to really enjoy the cyclogenesis... but I look forward to learning.
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Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20
-
Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
Haha I remember Flossie. Man I think she drove forecasters nuts when it kept getting stronger despite cool waters and high shear.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 6 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. WHILE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER DEFINED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 6 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. WHILE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER DEFINED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Rgv20
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2456
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Looking rather healthy tonight.
At most this should become a minimal 40-45 Tropical Storm.
At most this should become a minimal 40-45 Tropical Storm.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070919
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUL 07 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N101W. THE LOW IS
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PROVIDED BY THE MONSOON
TROUGH. WINDS N OF THE LOW ARE CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NE
PART OF THE LOW...AND 20 TO 25 KT IN SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE
LOW. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION HAS
ERUPTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW MAINLY IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS DISPLACED THE CONVECTION TO THE
WEST OF THE CENTER. CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATE 20-25 KT OF
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO AN AREA WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SHOULD TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
<snip>
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 070532
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 6 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
WTPN21 PHNC 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 97.6W TO 14.3N 104.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 062030Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 97.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8N
96.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 97.9W, APPROXIMATELY 250NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 061435Z SSMIS 89GHZ IMAGE VERIFIES THE
CONVECTION IS DEEP, WHILE THE 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THICK CURVED BANDING
ON BOTH SIDES OF THE LLCC. SEA WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
ESTIMATED AT 29 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
CIRCULATION EXISTS ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS IN A REGION FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
072100Z.
//
NNNN
AXPZ20 KNHC 070919
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUL 07 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N101W. THE LOW IS
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PROVIDED BY THE MONSOON
TROUGH. WINDS N OF THE LOW ARE CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NE
PART OF THE LOW...AND 20 TO 25 KT IN SW MONSOONAL FLOW S OF THE
LOW. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION HAS
ERUPTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW MAINLY IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS DISPLACED THE CONVECTION TO THE
WEST OF THE CENTER. CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATE 20-25 KT OF
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO AN AREA WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SHOULD TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
<snip>
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 070532
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 6 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
WTPN21 PHNC 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 97.6W TO 14.3N 104.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 062030Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 97.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8N
96.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 97.9W, APPROXIMATELY 250NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 061435Z SSMIS 89GHZ IMAGE VERIFIES THE
CONVECTION IS DEEP, WHILE THE 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THICK CURVED BANDING
ON BOTH SIDES OF THE LLCC. SEA WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
ESTIMATED AT 29 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
CIRCULATION EXISTS ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS IN A REGION FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
072100Z.
//
NNNN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139086
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
Up to 100%
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 7 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND THERE IS
A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 7 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND THERE IS
A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139086
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep932011_ep032011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107071252
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep932011_ep032011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107071252
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139086
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E
WHXX01 KMIA 071257
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1257 UTC THU JUL 7 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (EP032011) 20110707 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110707 1200 110708 0000 110708 1200 110709 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 101.5W 15.5N 103.1W 16.4N 104.6W 17.3N 106.1W
BAMD 14.4N 101.5W 15.4N 103.7W 16.1N 106.0W 16.8N 108.2W
BAMM 14.4N 101.5W 15.5N 103.4W 16.2N 105.5W 16.9N 107.5W
LBAR 14.4N 101.5W 15.3N 103.8W 16.3N 106.4W 17.2N 109.0W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 54KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110709 1200 110710 1200 110711 1200 110712 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 107.4W 20.3N 109.8W 21.8N 112.0W 22.0N 113.9W
BAMD 17.3N 110.3W 18.4N 114.5W 19.4N 118.6W 19.8N 123.0W
BAMM 17.6N 109.5W 19.0N 113.5W 20.1N 117.3W 20.5N 121.1W
LBAR 18.3N 111.4W 20.6N 115.3W 23.5N 117.7W 25.5N 117.8W
SHIP 59KTS 52KTS 37KTS 25KTS
DSHP 59KTS 52KTS 37KTS 25KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 101.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 99.2W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 96.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1257 UTC THU JUL 7 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (EP032011) 20110707 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110707 1200 110708 0000 110708 1200 110709 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 101.5W 15.5N 103.1W 16.4N 104.6W 17.3N 106.1W
BAMD 14.4N 101.5W 15.4N 103.7W 16.1N 106.0W 16.8N 108.2W
BAMM 14.4N 101.5W 15.5N 103.4W 16.2N 105.5W 16.9N 107.5W
LBAR 14.4N 101.5W 15.3N 103.8W 16.3N 106.4W 17.2N 109.0W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 54KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110709 1200 110710 1200 110711 1200 110712 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 107.4W 20.3N 109.8W 21.8N 112.0W 22.0N 113.9W
BAMD 17.3N 110.3W 18.4N 114.5W 19.4N 118.6W 19.8N 123.0W
BAMM 17.6N 109.5W 19.0N 113.5W 20.1N 117.3W 20.5N 121.1W
LBAR 18.3N 111.4W 20.6N 115.3W 23.5N 117.7W 25.5N 117.8W
SHIP 59KTS 52KTS 37KTS 25KTS
DSHP 59KTS 52KTS 37KTS 25KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 101.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 99.2W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 96.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Well there we go looks like we have TD3 in the EPAC, not a bad looking system though its doubtful it gets above a TS.
GFS did a pretty good job on this systems formation.
GFS did a pretty good job on this systems formation.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139086
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC: THREE-E - Tropical Depression
WTPZ23 KNHC 071436
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011
1500 UTC THU JUL 07 2011
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 101.2W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 101.2W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 100.6W
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.3N 105.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 17.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 18.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 19.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 101.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTPZ33 KNHC 071436
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011
800 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2011
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 101.2W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
101.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WELL SOUTH OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR ON FRIDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011
800 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2011
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH
ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION DUE
TO EASTERLY SHEAR. THE OUTFLOW IS STILL LIMITED TO THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. BOTH OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER
WATER IN TWO DAYS.
SINCE THE CYCLONE IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290/11. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A
PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD...AND
THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
CONSISTENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
MODEL...WHICH SHOWS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 14.8N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 16.3N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 17.0N 107.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 18.0N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 19.0N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 19.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011
1500 UTC THU JUL 07 2011
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 101.2W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 101.2W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 100.6W
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.3N 105.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 17.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 18.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 19.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 101.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTPZ33 KNHC 071436
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011
800 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2011
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 101.2W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
101.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WELL SOUTH OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR ON FRIDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011
800 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2011
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH
ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION DUE
TO EASTERLY SHEAR. THE OUTFLOW IS STILL LIMITED TO THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. BOTH OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER
WATER IN TWO DAYS.
SINCE THE CYCLONE IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290/11. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A
PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD...AND
THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
CONSISTENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
MODEL...WHICH SHOWS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 14.8N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 16.3N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 17.0N 107.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 18.0N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 19.0N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 19.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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A fairly easy forecast from the looks of things for the NHC, sure they would hope most systems eventually end up being like this!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Yeah track is pretty similar, I suppose there is an outside chance of a hurricane with this one but I suspect we won't get it with this one.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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