WPAC: MA-ON - Remnants

[StormingB81]

Keeps moving closer I HIGHLY DOUBT we see 50 knot winds but if it dont turn back soon could get very gusty here..I got my weather maching first time I can actually use it.lol even though it wont be high winds

[KWT]

Uh, dry have air hasn't been the only issue for the typhoon. Modest northerly shear has been giving it fits as well.

Yeah, the shear has no doubt been helpnig to drive the drier air into the core time and time again, probably for the best that happened otherwise we'd almost certainly have a 5 IMO...

[StormingB81]

I wonder when it will head back to towards the north..prolly anytime again..

[Chacor]

RODN (Kadena Air Base) reported 17KT winds gusting 22KT at 4:55pm local time, the highest wind reported from there so far. Pressure falling.

[Chacor]

Minami-daito Airport reported a peak wind of 14.4 m/s (28 kt) at 1600 local, the strongest wind report so far from Japan.

[StormingB81]

You know if for some really odd reason it doesn't turn Okinawa COULD be in the 50 knots wind circle which could make things interesting since we are in TCCOR 4...I know it will turn but just I thought it would have turned a little bit more then it has so far..

[Infdidoll]

We live on one of the areas prone to high winds and it's not bad at all here. In fact, someone is setting off Roman candles right outside my window. I hope mainland is ready, though.

And yes, sheer is affecting the system as well, but it's the dry air that seems to be destroying the core.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 25.2N 133.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
30KT 500NM SOUTHEAST 350NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 28.9N 132.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 191200UTC 32.7N 132.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 201200UTC 33.6N 136.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

WTPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 24.4N 134.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 134.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 26.0N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 27.9N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 29.8N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 31.5N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 34.0N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 34.4N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 33.0N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 134.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS MA-ON
TAKING A SHARP NORTHWARD STEP DURING THE FIRST THREE HOURS OF THE
PERIOD, THEN AN EQUALLY SHARP STAGGER-STEP TO THE WEST DURING THE
SECOND THREE HOURS. THE NET MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS
NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS. TY 08W IS NEARING THE END OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). A 170414Z TRMM IMAGE CONFIRMS THE NEW EYE
WALL HAS WRAPPED FULLY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), BUT EYEWALL CONVECTION REMAINS SHALLOW. THE ERC HAS RESULTED
IN A FLAT INTENSITY TREND TODAY. IT IS ALSO MAKING
INTENSITYASSESSMENT VIA DVORAK ANALYSIS LESS REPRESENTATIVE, AS THE
WARMING CLOUD TOPS DURING THE PROCESS HAVE GIVEN A WEAKER SIGNATURE.
THE CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A MODEL EXPECTED T
VALUE OF 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND A SIMILAR VALUE FROM KNES AT
170230Z. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR VALUES AT AND BELOW 10 KNOTS WILL ALLOW TY 08W TO RESUME
INTENSIFICATION AS THE ERC COMPLETES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEERING
TY 08W IS WEAKENING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
SOUNDINGS FROM NAZE (NORTHERN RYUKUS) AND KAGOSHIMA (KYUSHU) SHOW
BACKING WINDS, THEY BOTH SHOW 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. SO THE RIDGE IS DECAYING, ALBEIT SLOWLY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN HANDLING THIS PROCESS VERY WELL. TY 08W IS A VERY LARGE STORM,
WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING HUNDREDS OF MILES AWAY
FROM THE CENTER. A 170112Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS GALE FORCE WINDS
EXTENDING NEARLY 250 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT IMPINGEMENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
CONTINUES. THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHERIC TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
IMPINGEMENT IS FILLING, AND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BETTER OUTFLOW
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT IS EXPECTED. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS WELL-DEVELOPED. TY 08W WILL REMAIN UNDER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ALL THE WAY THROUGH COASTAL JAPAN AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL NOT INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. THE DE-INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS OF TY 08W WILL BE SLOW DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE PRIMARY
WEAKENING FORCES ON THE STORM WILL BE LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN OF SHIKOKU AND THE WAKAYAMA PENINSULA AND BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENCE. THUS TY 08W SHOULD REMAIN AT GREATER THAN
TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT PASSES THE KANTO PLAIN. THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION PROCESS WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL THE STORM IS SEAWARD OF THE
KANTO, AND WILL NOT COMPLETE UNTIL TAU 120. NEXT WARNINGS AT
171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

TPPN11 PGTW 171208
A. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON)
B. 17/1132Z
C. 25.2N
D. 133.8E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 11NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY
OW YIELDS A CF OF 4.0. SUBTRACTED .5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO
YIELD A DT OF 3.5. PT AND MET YIELD A 5.0. DT NOT CONSIDERED
REPRESENTATIVE, THUS DBO PT AND MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/0654Z 24.8N 134.3E SSMI
17/0826Z 24.8N 134.3E SSMS
UEHARA

[euro6208]

I would place the intensity of ma-on at 115 knots category powerful strength of 1 min sustained winds. the deep convection although not as strong as it should be is making ma-on look weaker. if we had recon, we would know the truth.

[Chacor]

It's too disorganised near its core to possibly be a cat 4. 115 knots is pushing it. Carry on w!shcasting...

[Chacor]

Indeed, down to 100 kt from JTWC:

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 25.2N 133.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 133.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 27.1N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 28.9N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 30.6N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 32.5N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 34.0N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 34.3N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 34.8N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 25.7N 133.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z
AND 181500Z.//

[Chacor]

WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON)//
WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT MA-ON IS COMING OUT OF ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) AND
BEGINNING TO RE-ORGANIZE. A 170826Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS THE OLD
EYEWALL HAS NEARLY DISAPPEARED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS COMMENCING IN
THE NEW EYE WALL. THE ERC PROCESS HAS TAKEN A LOT OUT OF THE STORM,
MAKING FOR A FLAT INTENSITY TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS
AROUND THE EYE AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE
FALLING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 105 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. TY
08W IS CURRENTLY IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RE-
INTENSIFICATION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 29 TO 30 DEGREES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS. TROUGHING OVER THE RYUKUS IS
STILL PRODUCING SOME IMPINGEMENT ON OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN
QUADRANT, BUT THAT IS ALSO EASING. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST, GIVING TY 08W AN ALLEY TO APPROACH
SOUTHERN JAPAN. SOUNDINGS FROM NAZE (NORTHERN RYUKUS) AND KAGOSHIMA
(KYUSHU) SHOW 500 MB 24 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS BETWEEN 50 AND 100 METERS.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS PROCESS VERY WELL. TY 08W IS A
VERY LARGE STORM, WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING
HUNDREDS OF MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THE OUTERMOST RAINBANDS ARE
ALREADY SHOWING ON SHIKOKU RADAR IMAGERY. ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE STORM, THE 170000Z PGTW GRADIENT LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
REVEALED A LINE OF CONVERGENCE FEEDING INTO THE STORM THAT BEGINS
OVER MINDANAO. OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
FOR NEARLY 250 NM. SURFACE REPORTS FROM NAHA, OVER 360 NM AWAY FROM
THE STORM'S CENTER, SHOW STEADY 15-20 KNOT NORTHERLIES.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 08W WILL CONTINUE ITS CHURN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TY 08W WILL REMAIN IN VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, AND NOW THAT THE ERC IS
COMPLETED, WILL RESUME INTENSIFICATION. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RUN FROM 29 THROUGH 31 DEGREES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR NEAR TAU 24,
JUST BEFORE MA-ON CRESTS THE RIDGE AXIS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND
ALONG THE 29TH LATITUDE. GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND SPEED, AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE SHOWING
TIGHT PACKING. THE JTWC FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS THROUGH
TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE JTWC TRACK MOVES FASTER THAN CONSENSUS,
WHICH IS BEING SLOWED BY EGRR AND THE BAROTROPIC MODEL. LAND
INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF KYUSHU AND SHIKOKU AND
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEAKENING FORCES.
C. DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
WESTERLIES ALOFT, THE RE-CURVE IS UNUSUAL IN THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK AT RELATIVELY SLOW SPEEDS AND WEAKEN ONLY SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS
SOUTH OF HONSHU. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL NOT EVEN BEGIN UNTIL
THE SYSTEM IS EAST OF THE CHIBA PENINSULA. GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS HAS REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST DAYS AND HAS LOCKED
IN REGARDING A PASSAGE SEAWARD OF THE KANTO. TY 08W WILL BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND AS IT PASSES, BUT INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES IT
WILL REMAIN ABOVE TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT DOES SO. THERE IS HOWEVER A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INTENSITY BETWEEN TAU 72 AND
120, AS THE DEGREE AND DURATION OF LAND INTERACTION WILL MAKE A
TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCE IN HOW MUCH OF THE STORM IS LEFT TO DECAY AS
IT TRACKS PAST THE KANTO. A 30 MILE DEVIATION FROM TRACK IN EITHER
DIRECTION WILL RESULT IN SHARPLY DISPARATE OUTCOMES, ONE WITH
EXTENSIVE LAND INTERACTION AND SHARP WEAKENING AND THE OTHER WITH TY
08W GETTING GOOD SUPPORT FROM WARM WATER AND WEAKENING ONLY SLOWLY.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL EXIST UNTIL THE STORM IS
CLEAR OF THE WAKAYAMA PENINSULA.//

[KWT]

Interesting presentartion, its getting that double eyewall signature, either its an EWRC or it'll be one of those EWRC that never quites manage to complete itself...

[theavocado]

Uh, dry have air hasn't been the only issue for the typhoon. Modest northerly shear has been giving it fits as well.

In a system this mature, moderate wind shear is probably not that big of a factor. The vast amount of mass being evacuated to the upper troposphere will have set up a significant upper-level anticyclone. Granted, the vertical windshear could put some pressure on this, but the vertical circulation is well enough established that the moderate VWS is hardly noticed. In this case, you can compare the 89GHz and 37GHz imagery and see that there is very little tilt to the system.

The open eye wall on the northern side of the system is the tell tale sign of the struggle. This is being caused by either dry air getting sucked in on the northern side, or upper/mid-level subsidence suppressing the convection. In this particular case, if you view the water vapor imagery, you'll see that there has been an upper level trough transiting from the northeast to the northwest of the system over the last day. During a large portion of that time, Ma-on was under the convergent quarter of the trough, and this probably provided enough subsidence to hurt the northern side.

In this animation the orange colors are dry air and in this case its caused by subsidence (in the upper levels, so not at the level that would affect the system, for that you need to look at TPW, which shows no red flags) you can see the embedded trough wrap around the northern side over the last day or so.

[KWT]

When you think about it Ma-On has never been able to hold a fully closed eyewall for very long has it...

Still a 90-100kts system making landfall is still a very significant system and its track will maximise the possible damage.

PS, I'd be a little surprised cif it gets to 125kts, but we'll see!

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 26.4N 133.4E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 140NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 450NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 182100UTC 30.6N 132.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 191800UTC 32.9N 133.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 201800UTC 33.5N 138.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

WTPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 26.0N 133.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0N 133.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 27.8N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 29.6N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 31.4N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 32.7N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 33.9N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 33.9N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 34.8N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 133.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TY 08W HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM STRUGGLES TO COMPLETE THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC).
HOWEVER, THE 18-20Z IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INITIAL STRENGTHENING OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, PERHAPS SIGNALING A
RE-INTENSIFICATION PHASE. REGARDLESS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY AS OF
18Z WAS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS
FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. TY 08W CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WOBBLE BUT
NOW APPEARS TO BE HEADED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO THE WEAK WESTERLIES LOCATED JUST NORTH OF JAPAN. MA-ON
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY EASTWARD NEAR 32N
LATITUDE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE RIDGE. THE 17/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A WEAKENING, RECEDING STEERING RIDGE AND HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING ECMWF/JMA ENSEMBLE TRACKS REMAIN TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED SO THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK. BASED ON THE
RECENT WEAKENING, THE PEAK INTENSITY WAS DECREASED TO 110 KNOTS. TY
08W IS STILL EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY DUE TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120, WELL EAST OF JAPAN. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
NNNN

TXPQ26 KNES 172133
TCSWNP
A. 08W (MA-ON)
B. 17/2032Z
C. 26.5N
D. 133.4E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/5.0/W1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...EMBEDDED IN DG WITH OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG RING YIELDING
A DT OF 4.5. NOTHING ADDED FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT AND ALL RULES CANNOT BE
MET TO ADD 0.5 FOR BANDING FEATURE. MET AND PT = 4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
NIL
...KIBLER

[KWT]

If anything its gone the opposite way to what the JWTC has been forecasting and weakened a fair amount, the inner core is pretty poor at the moment!

[cycloneye]

And that weakening is good news for Japan that will not have to deal with a strong typhoon.

[ManilaTC]

Its struggling to keep its act together though, I dont think it will have enough oomph before it gets to Japan as predicted.

[euro6208]

ma-on is indeed weakening.