ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 192002
AF308 0502A BRET HDOB 35 20110719
195200 2932N 07453W 8429 01590 //// +154 //// 214038 038 024 002 01
195230 2933N 07454W 8429 01589 //// +158 //// 212038 039 025 001 01
195300 2934N 07456W 8432 01584 //// +157 //// 213039 040 025 000 01
195330 2936N 07457W 8429 01586 //// +160 //// 212040 040 026 001 01
195400 2937N 07458W 8429 01584 //// +160 //// 214041 041 025 001 01
195430 2938N 07500W 8425 01586 //// +160 //// 217041 041 027 000 01
195500 2939N 07501W 8429 01580 //// +160 //// 217041 041 027 001 01
195530 2940N 07502W 8429 01578 //// +163 //// 217040 040 027 001 01
195600 2941N 07504W 8432 01576 //// +161 //// 218041 042 029 001 01
195630 2943N 07505W 8433 01571 //// +160 //// 219036 038 032 001 01
195700 2944N 07506W 8433 01568 //// +159 //// 222040 042 030 002 01
195730 2945N 07508W 8429 01572 //// +158 //// 223044 045 031 001 01
195800 2946N 07509W 8426 01575 //// +166 //// 223045 046 032 001 01
195830 2947N 07510W 8440 01559 //// +167 //// 219045 045 034 000 01
195900 2948N 07512W 8423 01575 //// +157 //// 218045 045 032 004 01
195930 2950N 07513W 8428 01565 //// +161 //// 217043 044 033 002 01
200000 2951N 07514W 8427 01564 //// +161 //// 216045 046 034 002 01
200030 2952N 07516W 8435 01554 //// +160 //// 218040 042 035 004 01
200100 2953N 07517W 8431 01557 //// +156 //// 215041 041 038 002 01
200130 2954N 07518W 8429 01555 //// +169 //// 215039 040 037 003 01

[drezee]

000
URNT12 KNHC 192019
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022011
A. 19/20:08:50Z
B. 30 deg 11 min N
075 deg 38 min W
C. 850 mb 1429 m
D. 47 kt
E. 131 deg 19 nm
F. 215 deg 46 kt
G. 131 deg 13 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 15 C / 1519 m
J. 20 C / 1526 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0502A BRET OB 15
MAX FL WIND 46 KT SE QUAD 20:04:40Z

[drezee]

pressure down to 999mb

[HURAKAN]

URNT12 KNHC 192019
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022011
A. 19/20:08:50Z
B. 30 deg 11 min N
075 deg 38 min W
C. 850 mb 1429 m
D. 47 kt
E. 131 deg 19 nm
F. 215 deg 46 kt
G. 131 deg 13 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 15 C / 1519 m
J. 20 C / 1526 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0502A BRET OB 15
MAX FL WIND 46 KT SE QUAD 20:04:40Z

[HURAKAN]

AF308 0502A BRET HDOB 37 20110719
201200 3019N 07547W 8432 01511 //// +188 //// 048025 027 021 001 01
201230 3020N 07548W 8426 01521 //// +190 //// 047030 032 031 003 01
201300 3021N 07550W 8430 01522 //// +190 //// 048036 037 033 002 01
201330 3023N 07551W 8425 01533 //// +186 //// 050035 036 034 001 01
201400 3024N 07552W 8432 01531 //// +183 //// 050034 036 033 002 01
201430 3025N 07554W 8433 01532 //// +179 //// 049035 035 031 001 01
201500 3026N 07555W 8428 01542 //// +175 //// 044035 036 029 002 01
201530 3026N 07555W 8428 01542 //// +175 //// 039035 036 029 001 01
201600 3028N 07558W 8432 01544 //// +181 //// 037033 034 027 000 01
201630 3029N 07559W 8433 01546 //// +179 //// 032031 032 026 001 01
201700 3031N 07600W 8426 01553 //// +178 //// 029030 030 026 001 01
201730 3032N 07601W 8433 01551 //// +175 //// 030029 030 025 000 01
201800 3033N 07603W 8431 01553 //// +172 //// 025029 029 022 002 01
201830 3034N 07604W 8425 01563 //// +179 //// 030028 029 024 001 01
201900 3035N 07605W 8431 01559 //// +178 //// 029027 028 024 001 01
201930 3036N 07607W 8428 01565 //// +176 //// 029025 026 023 001 01
202000 3037N 07608W 8429 01565 //// +172 //// 030025 026 019 000 01
202030 3038N 07609W 8425 01571 //// +169 //// 033025 026 015 002 01
202100 3039N 07611W 8430 01567 //// +167 //// 034026 026 014 002 01
202130 3041N 07612W 8425 01574 //// +163 //// 038025 025 013 001 01

[RL3AO]

pressure down to 999mb

To be expected as it becomes extratropical.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 192032
AF308 0502A BRET HDOB 38 20110719
202200 3042N 07613W 8432 01569 //// +162 //// 038025 025 012 001 01
202230 3043N 07615W 8434 01568 //// +165 //// 041025 025 017 001 01
202300 3044N 07616W 8424 01579 //// +162 //// 039025 026 012 002 01
202330 3045N 07617W 8431 01572 //// +165 //// 045025 026 011 002 01
202400 3046N 07619W 8431 01575 //// +161 //// 042024 025 016 002 01
202430 3047N 07620W 8432 01574 //// +152 //// 044024 026 025 013 01
202500 3049N 07621W 8432 01575 //// +134 //// 037026 028 037 016 01
202530 3050N 07623W 8436 01572 //// +145 //// 031026 027 023 007 01
202600 3051N 07624W 8426 01584 //// +155 //// 034023 024 022 001 01
202630 3052N 07625W 8428 01582 //// +155 //// 035023 024 019 001 01
202700 3053N 07626W 8433 01578 //// +155 //// 038022 022 018 002 01
202730 3054N 07628W 8431 01581 //// +154 //// 039022 023 015 001 01
202800 3055N 07629W 8429 01586 //// +153 //// 038021 022 012 001 01
202830 3056N 07630W 8434 01578 //// +152 //// 034021 021 014 001 01
202900 3058N 07632W 8432 01584 //// +155 //// 035020 021 015 001 01
202930 3059N 07633W 8428 01587 //// +153 //// 036020 020 012 002 01
203000 3100N 07634W 8426 01590 //// +151 //// 035019 019 008 001 01
203030 3101N 07636W 8433 01584 //// +154 //// 036018 019 008 001 01
203100 3102N 07637W 8426 01591 //// +155 //// 035017 018 010 001 01
203130 3103N 07638W 8428 01590 //// +159 //// 032018 018 006 001 01

[HURAKAN]

[somethingfunny]

[HURAKAN]

912
URNT11 KNHC 192036
97779 20310 30311 76600 15300 03018 16//1 /2519
40315
RMK AF308 0502A BRET OB 17
SWS = 10 KTS
LAST REPORT
;

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

BRET HAS A DISHEVELED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE PICTURES...WITH AN
EXPOSED LOW-CLOUD CENTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF A SMALL PATCH OF
THUNDERSTORMS. IN SPITE OF THIS...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER ESTIMATE OF INTENSITY
WAS NOT A GENEROUS ONE AND THE STORM IS MAINTAINING STRENGTH...FOR
NOW. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 52 KT AND EVEN HIGHER SURFACE
WINDS WERE SHOWN BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE AIRCRAFT.
HOWEVER THE SFMR WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT INFLATED BY AN
ACCOMPANYING SPIKE OF HEAVY RAIN. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
MAINTAINED AT 45 KT. STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
ALONG WITH DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TOLL ON
BRET AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION AFTER 3
DAYS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 035/7. BRET IS MOVING AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AND SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
CONTINUED GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME ACCELERATION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 30.4N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 31.1N 74.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 32.4N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 33.7N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 35.1N 69.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 38.5N 65.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[drezee]

pressure down to 999mb

To be expected as it becomes extratropical.

The pressure fall had nothing to due to an Extratropical transition. Convection fired over the center for about three hours. The temp difference grew to 5C. It was tropical mechanisms purely.

H. 999 mb
I. 15 C / 1519 m
J. 20 C / 1526 m

[TwisterFanatic]

Latest, exposed.

[KWT]

Yeah looks like some short term deepening but not likely to delay the end for Bret.

[NDG]

Bret has really haulted on its northerly track, if anything it has moved eastward in the last few hours, it could be just temporary.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

BRET HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE SINCE THE LAST HURRICANE HUNTER
MISSION. THE CYCLONE STILL CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER
AND PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT SINCE THERE
HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. IN
FACT...IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASED IN
INTENSITY AROUND 0000 UTC...AND THE INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS
CORROBORATED BY A TAFB DATA-T ESTIMATE OF T3.0 USING THE SHEAR
PATTERN. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT WILL BE INVESTIGATING THE
STORM IN A FEW HOURS TO ASSESS IF THERE HAVE BEEN ANY CHANGES.
STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING BRET...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS OPEN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION INTO A TROUGH
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THEREFORE DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 72
HOURS.

BRET APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY SLOWED DOWN BUT SHOULD RESUME A
MOTION OF 040 DEGREES AT 7 KT SHORTLY. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE
FLOW. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48
HOURS...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 30.6N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 31.5N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 32.8N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 34.2N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 35.8N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

En route

[tolakram]

Still going .....

[HURAKAN]

latest visible