ATL: CINDY - Remnants - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

AL, 03, 2011072200, , BEST, 0, 427N, 440W, 50, 1002, TS

no change

It went down to 45kts.

AL, 03, 2011072200, , BEST, 0, 427N, 440W, 45, 1000, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

Agreeable, looking more ragged in the last satellite images

[CrazyC83]

Also at higher latitudes it is harder for the winds to mix down to the surface.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
1100 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011

CINDY HAS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINED A TIGHT INNER CORE OF SYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS INDICATED BY THE GEOSTATIONARY AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING
TO WARM. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS ANALYZED
BASED UPON THE TAFB DVORAK CI OF 3.0 AND A 22Z AMSU CIMSS ESTIMATE
OF 39 KT. THE MICROWAVE PASSES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A
WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE AND THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL NOT UNDERGO AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. INSTEAD...IT APPEARS THAT CINDY WILL LOSE ITS DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT A DAY OR SOONER DUE TO PASSING OVER QUITE
COLD SSTS AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THOUGH NOT SHOWING AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS NEW TO THIS ADVISORY.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS QUICKLY CONTINUING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT
23 KT...AS IT IS BEING ADVECTED AROUND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TO ITS NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THAT ISSUED
PREVIOUSLY.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY BASED UPON A
CIRA AMSU SIZE ESTIMATE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 43.5N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 45.9N 39.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 49.5N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 23/1200Z 53.5N 26.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
500 AM AST FRI JUL 22 2011

CINDY HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND OF MODEST
CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER
RAGGED IN APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS A BLEND OF
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM
SAB...AND 49 KT FROM THE MOST RECENT CIRA-AMSU OVERPASS.

CINDY IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/25. THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST BY ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
FASTER AND TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

CINDY IS ALREADY OVER 20C SSTS...AND ONLY COLDER WATER LIES AHEAD OF
IT. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER...AND DISSIPATE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES BY 48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON A 37-KT WIND REPORT FROM SHIP KABL AT 06Z.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 44.5N 39.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 46.7N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 50.0N 29.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1800Z 52.7N 21.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[AHS2011]

Just to let you know, we're beating 2010's pace by a couple of weeks. If Don forms out of the tropical wave that's about to enter the Caribbean, then we would be ahead by a month because Danielle last year formed late August of last year. Keep it up, 2011.

[AHS2011]

Why hasn't the National Hurricane Center updated yet?

[KWT]

Impressive how well Cindy has managed to keep itself going, done a better job than Bret it seems!

[cycloneye]

AL, 03, 2011072212, , BEST, 0, 449N, 384W, 45, 1000, TS

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
1100 AM AST FRI JUL 22 2011

CINDY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CLOUD PATTERN CHARACTERISTIC OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY LOSING ORGANIZATION
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND
35 KT FROM TAFB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/23. ALL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT CINDY SHOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT
25-30 KT UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CINDY IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR TO THE EAST OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGESTS
THAT CINDY WILL NOT MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MAKE AN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THAT COOL TO LESS THAN 15C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

THE WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED
ON JUST-RECEIVED ASCAT DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 45.5N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 47.6N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 50.6N 25.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0000Z 53.2N 17.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
500 PM AST FRI JUL 22 2011

THE COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC ARE NOW
HAVING A NOTICEABLE EFFECT ON CINDY. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED...WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION NOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE LOW CLOUDS
IN THE CIRCULATION ARE BECOMING STRATIFORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS DECREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON DECREASING AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB. CINDY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOUR...AND THE
CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY AFTER 24 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/25...AND A RAPID MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 46.9N 34.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 49.5N 28.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 53.5N 20.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Cookie]

might brush past the uk, wont be much left mind!

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
1100 PM AST FRI JUL 22 2011

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY HAS EVAPORATED AND THE
CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ILL DEFINED. AN EARLIER 1950 UTC NRL
WINDSAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW BELIEVABLE 35 KT WINDS BUT DID NOT
SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION...INDICATING ONLY A SHARP TROUGH. THE
METEOSAT 9 SHORT WAVE INFRARED IMAGERY...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS THAT A
SMALL CLOSED CIRCULATION MAY STILL EXIST. IN ANY EVENT...CINDY
LACKS THE CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL
BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT
BASED ON THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE
SCATTEROMETER PASS. STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR AND COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM
REDEVELOPING ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND ULTIMATELY SHOULD CAUSE
DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS OR LESS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 050/29...AND THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST UNTIL
DISSIPATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE
MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 49.2N 31.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP
12H 23/1200Z 51.7N 25.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

Is over for Cindy,see you in 2017!

[Cookie]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_VIS.html

Extratropical Cindy now in view on vis just behind the Warm Front coming into Ireland