WPAC: NOCK-TEN (Juaning) - Tropical Depression

[dhoeze]

Any possibility that 11W could affect this system?

[Chacor]

11W's probably too far away to significantly impact Nockten.


WTPQ20 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1108 NOCK-TEN (1108) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 15.6N 122.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 17.7N 117.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 290000UTC 18.6N 113.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 300000UTC 19.5N 110.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

[HURAKAN]

Any possibility that 11W could affect this system?

11W is too far and too weak to affect this system and both are moving away from each other

[Typhoon Hunter]

Dovorak support typhoon intensity now - amazing system!


952
TPPN10 PGTW 270036

A. TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN)

B. 26/2332Z

C. 15.5N

D. 122.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. RAGGED 12NM OW EYE W/MG
SURR YIELDS A 4.0DT. PT YIELDS A 4.5. MET YIELDS A 3.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HATHAWAY

[Macrocane]

I was going to say that It looks like a typhoon, let's see what the JTWC says in the next warning though by that time land interaction may have disrupted the cyclone.

[Typhoon10]

For us numbskulls, can someone advise and educate me, what is a steering ridge and how it affects storms. For example, why is TEN tracking WNW, when ELEVEN is going NNW? Would be great if you can provide examples or what I should reference to. Thx

[StormingB81]

JMA Upgrades to Severe Tropical Storm

[StormingB81]

STS 1108 (NOCK-TEN)
Issued at 00:40 UTC, 27 July 2011
<Analyses at 27/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°35'(15.6°)
E122°20'(122.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°00'(17.0°)
E120°20'(120.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 28/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°40'(17.7°)
E117°50'(117.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 29/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°35'(18.6°)
E113°50'(113.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°30'(19.5°)
E110°55'(110.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 390km(210NM)

[ejeraldmc]

Wow.. I see a well-defined eye at 0032Z..

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shphil.html

[HURAKAN]

closer to landfall

[dhoeze]

Any possibility that 11W could affect this system?

11W is too far and too weak to affect this system and both are moving away from each other

Thanks Hurakan and Chacor. Any observation if Nock-ten slowed down while it is trying to make landfall?

[Macrocane]

TYPHOON NOCK-TEN ACCORDING TO JTWC

WTPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 15.6N 122.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 122.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.8N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.9N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.6N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.3N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.9N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.9N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.7N 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 121.6E.
TYPHOON 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS (35 TO 65 KNOTS) AND HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL, RAGGED EYE.
UPGRADED TO TYPHOON INTENSITY BASED ON THE EYE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Landfall

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 964.6mb/ 90.0kt

105 mph says Dvorak

[dexterlabio]

Rainy here in Quezon City. It is also kind of breezy again right now .

[oaba09]

Rainy here in Quezon City. It is also kind of breezy again right now .

yup...rain and wind started to pick up...

[HURAKAN]

Inland

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 964.6mb/ 90.0kt

105 mph says Dvorak

THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS (35 TO 65 KNOTS) AND HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL, RAGGED EYE.

what a surprising typhoon! i think nock-ten was a typhoon 18 hours right before landfall and i believe this actually peaked somewhere around that value but i think nock-ten peaked at 95 knots 1 minute winds.

be safe to all the people in the philippines. but nock-ten isn't done.

Next target: Hainan Island/china!

[Typhoon10]

HKO based on their 72hr prediction appear to have it coming closer to HK than some of the other tracks?

http://www.hko.gov.hk/nhm/nhmsfcpp72e.htm

[StormingB81]

20 Confirmed dead in PI due to storm.

http://news.yahoo.com/philippines-batte ... 43989.html