ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107221223
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011072212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902011
AL, 90, 2011072106, , BEST, 0, 118N, 468W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072112, , BEST, 0, 124N, 483W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072118, , BEST, 0, 128N, 498W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072200, , BEST, 0, 132N, 514W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072206, , BEST, 0, 135N, 531W, 20, 1012, DB

[cycloneye]

Post all model runs here for 90L.

[Chacor]

Yesterday's recon POD:

ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL INVEST AT 24/1800Z NEAR 21.0N 69.0W.

[Javlin]

Still looks to be a circulation below 15'N.The wave looks Yuc/Strait bound ATM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

[cycloneye]

First model plots at 06z:

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 221226
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1226 UTC FRI JUL 22 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110722 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110722  0600   110722  1800   110723  0600   110723  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  53.1W   14.5N  56.2W   15.4N  59.4W   16.6N  62.8W
BAMD    13.5N  53.1W   14.4N  56.4W   15.3N  59.5W   16.0N  62.4W
BAMM    13.5N  53.1W   14.4N  56.3W   15.1N  59.5W   15.8N  62.7W
LBAR    13.5N  53.1W   14.2N  56.3W   15.1N  59.9W   15.9N  63.5W
SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          29KTS          35KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          29KTS          35KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110724  0600   110725  0600   110726  0600   110727  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.9N  66.2W   20.5N  72.6W   22.4N  76.7W   24.1N  78.7W
BAMD    16.7N  65.1W   18.4N  69.7W   20.4N  72.4W   22.5N  74.3W
BAMM    16.7N  65.9W   18.7N  71.5W   20.2N  75.4W   21.4N  78.2W
LBAR    16.6N  66.8W   17.8N  72.1W   19.2N  76.3W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        42KTS          54KTS          61KTS          64KTS
DSHP        42KTS          39KTS          36KTS          29KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  53.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  12.8N LONM12 =  49.8W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  11.8N LONM24 =  46.8W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =    0NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Frank2]

Can't believe they'd show much - as the other posters said, too much going against that system and the VIS only shows scattered showers and a few thunderstorms associated with this wave...

On the other hand, the disturbance at 12N 27W is another matter - that is still holding together...

Frank

[RL3AO]

Still looks to be a circulation below 15'N.The wave looks Yuc/Strait bound ATM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

Yep. Its seemed like something that would be in the Bahamas next week but its not gaining latitude and until it develops, I don't see it going too much further north.

I'm guessing the more northern models are developing it too quick like they always do and pull it north. Its still a minimum of 36 hours from developing. More like 72.

EDIT: I think Yucatan is too far south. Might track near Hispaniola.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Still looks to be a circulation below 15'N.The wave looks Yuc/Strait bound ATM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

Yep. Its seemed like something that would be in the Bahamas next week but its not gaining latitude and until it develops, I don't see it going too much further north.

I'm guessing the more northern models are developing it too quick like they always do and pull it north. Its still a minimum of 36 hours from developing. More like 72.

EDIT: I think Yucatan is too far south. Might track near Hispaniola.

Yup,See graphic at models thread.

[GCANE]

[cycloneye]

12z Models

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1237 UTC FRI JUL 22 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110722 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110722  1200   110723  0000   110723  1200   110724  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.8N  54.7W   14.7N  57.8W   15.5N  61.3W   16.7N  64.8W
BAMD    13.8N  54.7W   14.7N  57.9W   15.5N  60.8W   16.2N  63.5W
BAMM    13.8N  54.7W   14.5N  57.9W   15.1N  61.2W   15.9N  64.5W
LBAR    13.8N  54.7W   14.4N  58.0W   15.1N  61.6W   15.7N  65.0W
SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          28KTS          35KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          28KTS          35KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110724  1200   110725  1200   110726  1200   110727  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.8N  68.5W   19.8N  75.4W   21.1N  80.8W   22.3N  85.0W
BAMD    16.8N  66.0W   18.3N  70.6W   19.8N  73.9W   21.3N  76.7W
BAMM    16.7N  67.8W   18.3N  73.6W   19.5N  78.3W   20.5N  82.7W
LBAR    16.2N  68.0W   17.9N  72.9W   20.7N  75.4W   24.6N  80.3W
SHIP        43KTS          54KTS          63KTS          69KTS
DSHP        43KTS          44KTS          56KTS          62KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.8N LONCUR =  54.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  13.2N LONM12 =  51.4W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  12.4N LONM24 =  48.3W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[ronjon]

I think one of the big problems this wave will have to further intensification will be land interaction with Hispanola and possibly Cuba. Models want to either take it directly across the greater antilles or slighly north. It may not get a decent chance to develop unless or until it can get in the FL straits or GOM.

[cycloneye]

The 12z graphic:



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[Blown Away]

Still looks to be a circulation below 15'N.The wave looks Yuc/Strait bound ATM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

Yep. Its seemed like something that would be in the Bahamas next week but its not gaining latitude and until it develops, I don't see it going too much further north.

I'm guessing the more northern models are developing it too quick like they always do and pull it north. Its still a minimum of 36 hours from developing. More like 72.

EDIT: I think Yucatan is too far south. Might track near Hispaniola.

What a shock, models through Hispaniola!!! IMO, looking at 13.5N/53.1W, that is E of the convection and it looks like everything is consolidating around that general area. IMO, it won't take much to bring 90L N or S of Hispaniola and SHIP has almost a hurricane in 120h and that includes going through PR & Hispaniola. If 90L misses those land masses we could have a more significant system, IMO.

[cycloneye]

I think one of the big problems this wave will have to further intensification will be land interaction with Hispanola and possibly Cuba. Models want to either take it directly across the greater antilles or slighly north. It may not get a decent chance to develop unless or until it can get in the FL straits or GOM.

What about the Yucatan Channel? See the 12z graphic.

[ronjon]

06Z NOGAPs across FL.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2011072206&set=Tropical

[dixiebreeze]

Cycloneye, my granddaughter is flying out of St. Thomas on Monday. Do you think the weather will be ok? They are still sailing around the V.I. islands today thru Sunday. Thanks so much!

[Gustywind]

Looking at the radar and the sat pics a strong line of showers/tstorms is heading in my direction. An impressive lightning has just bright my house close to my window . Thunder is rolling nicely. Lightnings continue to bright the atmosphere...

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, my granddaughter is flying out of St. Thomas on Monday. Do you think the weather will be ok? They are still sailing around the V.I. islands today thru Sunday. Thanks so much!

Hello Dixie.By Monday the weather should be improving slowly as the trail end of the system will have passed the St Thomas longitude,but the worse bad weather will be on Saturday thru Sunday.However, choppy seas are going to be there from tommorow thru Sunday.