ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[MississippiWx]

She's BACK....

AL, 05, 2011080900, , BEST, 0, 352N, 590W, 25, 1011, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

I'm not sure about that. It's had her listed as TD for the last couple of days....

But did it have the current date and coordinates? She's also up on the Navy page.

[MississippiWx]

[SouthDadeFish]

She's BACK....

AL, 05, 2011080900, , BEST, 0, 352N, 590W, 25, 1011, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

I'm not sure about that. It's had her listed as TD for the last couple of days....

But did it have the current date and coordinates? She's also up on the Navy page.

Yes, look here:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[MississippiWx]

Well, even if she's not officially back, she is in my book. Lol. She hasn't looked that good since she was in the Caribbean.

[SouthDadeFish]

Well, even if she's not officially back, she is in my book. Lol. She hasn't looked that good since she was in the Caribbean.

Well I'm not sure if I disagree with you on this one. She does look pretty impressive, which surprising considering the wind shear she's under. CIMSS suggests hear in the 30 knot range, so she may not look this good tomorrow morning, which is why I think the NHC only gave 20%.

[Florida1118]

I cannot believe she is trying to return, again.

[MississippiWx]

Reminds me of Cindy when she formed in that area. She just sort of popped up out of nowhere and the NHC gave her low chances of development. The next advisory was a high chance, then she was a tropical storm before you could blink. Will be interesting to see what Emily looks like in the morning.

[Florida1118]

I wonder what the record is for reforming? Probably 3 I would guess, so she'll match it

[brunota2003]

Buoy 41048 did have a wind shift yesterday morning from SSW to SW to WSW to W. I am not sure when Emily passed by it, though. The pressure did plummet (1006 millibars) and there were sustained winds of just over 40 knots for a little bit.

[brunota2003]

I wonder what the record is for reforming? Probably 3 I would guess, so she'll match it

Look at Hurricane Kyle (2002)...I'm not sure how many times he "came back", but I know he was the system that refused to die!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY...LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA...HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 30 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

They are again running tropical models for Ex Emily.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 091242
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1242 UTC TUE AUG 9 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE EMILY (AL052011) 20110809 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110809  1200   110810  0000   110810  1200   110811  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    33.9N  53.8W   34.6N  50.1W   36.1N  47.4W   38.1N  45.8W
BAMD    33.9N  53.8W   33.2N  49.7W   33.3N  46.8W   34.6N  44.8W
BAMM    33.9N  53.8W   34.1N  50.0W   35.1N  47.1W   36.8N  45.2W
LBAR    33.9N  53.8W   34.0N  49.5W   35.1N  46.3W   37.4N  43.9W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          34KTS          35KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          34KTS          35KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110811  1200   110812  1200   110813  1200   110814  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    40.2N  44.6W   43.1N  40.0W   42.5N  34.2W   41.2N  31.0W
BAMD    36.4N  43.6W   39.8N  40.0W   40.0N  31.8W   37.4N  27.6W
BAMM    38.7N  43.8W   41.6N  38.5W   40.8N  30.7W   38.6N  26.5W
LBAR    39.9N  41.3W   43.7N  30.9W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        36KTS          35KTS          30KTS          19KTS
DSHP        36KTS          35KTS          30KTS          19KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  33.9N LONCUR =  53.8W DIRCUR =  95DEG SPDCUR =  23KT
LATM12 =  35.1N LONM12 =  59.3W DIRM12 =  94DEG SPDM12 =  24KT
LATM24 =  34.6N LONM24 =  65.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1005MB OUTRAD =   90NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[supercane]

12Z best track:
AL, 05, 2011080912, , BEST, 0, 339N, 538W, 25, 1002, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1005, 90, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EMILY, M,
Despite appearances (latest vis)...

...good enough for a Dvorak classification (1.5/25kt from both SAB and TAFB)...
AL, 05, 201108091145, 10, DVTS, CI, , 3390N, 5350W, , 2, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, EG, VIM, 3, 1515 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=1.5 BO CBND MET=1.0 PT=1.5 FTBO DT
AL, 05, 201108091200, 10, DVTS, CI, , 3390N, 5420W, , 3, 25, 2, , 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, DM, VI, 5, 1515 /////, , , MET9, CSC, T, CSC PSN BSD ON BAND CURVATURE AND ANIMATION. DT YIEL
...no circulation on ASCAT at estimated location:

[crimi481]

Emily is homeless, a roamer of the Sea

[wxman57]

Emily, you pay attention to Bones, you hear?

[Epsilon_Fan]

Looks like Em got decoupled again... but she looked good for a while last night. I wonder if they'll bump her up to a TS for that short period when they review the data later in the year? I think she looked the best over the past 12 hours than she ever did in the Caribbean

[fogbreath]

Gad, Emily's been more like this lad anything this year it seems

[FireRat]

What's this deal about Emily's remnants perhaps turning south and then east toward the virgin Islands and Bahamas next week?....that's what I read from Accuweather just now on their home page. Some of their models show this crazy scenario!

If it ever did do this, that would be incredible like how Ivan came back from the dead in '04. Emily was nothing last week....will it be something next week? Pro mets, what's your take?

[artist]

What's this deal about Emily's remnants perhaps turning south and then east toward the virgin Islands and Bahamas next week?....that's what I read from Accuweather just now on their home page. Some of their models show this crazy scenario!

If it ever did do this, that would be incredible like how Ivan came back from the dead in '04. Emily was nothing last week....will it be something next week? Pro mets, what's your take?

from the Accuweather article -

Kottlowski also commented that, "It looks as though the lowest pressures and turning on the northern end of the cluster of thunderstorms. Most likely, the center of Emily tracks off to the northeast, but some of Emily's energy could get left behind would be a feature that we will have to track."

Kottlowski stressed that this sort of track would be unusual, and that other features had a better chance to develop than Emily. "I'm concerned about the area close to Florida later this week along a front that will become stationary in that area," he said. "We'll also have to watch the large area just west of Africa now, which probably will try to develop eventually once closer to the Lesser Antilles, though not before the end of the week."

[HURAKAN]

ex-Emily west of the Azores