ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory Written

REMNANTS OF EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
EMILY HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED.
THEREFORE...EMILY DOES NOT MEET THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY. REGENERATION OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR.

THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
15 KT...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT MOTION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO ESTABLISH
AS THE CENTER HAS LOST DEFINITION. THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF EMILY WILL MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT UNTIL THEY ARE
ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 31.1N 74.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

EMILY DOES NOT MEET THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY.

See you on 2017.

[Fyzn94]

And now she's gone for good.

[crimi481]

Is the Emiy remnent low being pushed back south?
Also little rotation onland - near Lake Okochobee.
Are the parts of Emily worth looking at?

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

Amimate/ Enhancements/Cool season B&W TAB - Zoom in

[artist]

Is the Emiy remnent low being pushed back south?
Also little rotation onland - near Lake Okochobee.
Are the parts of Emily worth looking at?

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

Amimate/ Enhancements/Cool season B&W TAB - Zoom in

I noticed that too. I guess it is just part of her tail that doesn't exist!
It has just been dreary & muggy here all day with the threat of and we are finally getting some rain.

[crimi481]

A sad "Tail" - indeed.
Emily has personallity issues

[artist]

A sad "Tail" - indeed.
Emily has personallity issues

[brunota2003]

I estimate the "center" of Emily at about 32.0N and 72.5W...Buoy 41048 is at 31.9N and 69.6W, about 150 miles from the "center", and is reporting SSW winds up to 25.3 knots, with gusts to 29.1 knots (9:50 pm). The 10:50 pm update was South winds up to 27.2 knots, gusting to 30 knots. Pressure is 1011 millibars and falling (29.86 inches, was 29.99 inches at 11:50 am). Will be interesting to watch as the remnants of Emily approach this buoy overnight.

EDIT: 11:50 pm...South winds up to 29.1 knots, gusts up to 33 knots...pressure 29.84 inches and falling (1010 millibars is 29.83 inches).

Seems Emily's pressure was lower than 1011 (possibly 1008 or 1009 millibars), and the winds were higher than 25 knots too.

[crimi481]

Nice update -thanks

[brunota2003]

Last update before bed...at 12:50 am, winds are sustained from the SSW up to 31.1 knots and gusting to 33 knots at Buoy 41048. Also, the pressure is now down to 29.81 inches (29.80 inches is 1009 millibars).

One more update (can't sleep). 1:50 am, winds are sustained from the SSW up to 35.0 knots (highest 1-minute sustained winds were 35.0 knots at 1:43 am), with gusts up to 42.7 knots. Pressure is 29.78 inches (29.77 inches is 1008 millibars).

From the 5 pm EDT position, Emily's center was 234 miles away from Buoy 41048 at a heading of 76 degrees. Emily was heading to the NE, or 55 degrees, at a speed of 17 mph. That means it would reach the buoy (closest approach, roughly) in 13.7 hours, or between 6 and 7 am EDT. Right now (2 am), the center is about 80 miles away from the buoy and should pass just north of the buoy, using continuity. So I'd estimate the pressure is maybe as low as 1006 or 1007 millibars. If there are any more reports of winds at or above 35.0 knots, I think that would be at least some proof that Emily did regain tropical storm status...also will be looking for a wind shift.

2:50 am, winds are sustained from the SSW up to 36.9 knots (highest 1-minute sustained winds at 2:34 am), with gusts up to 42.7 knots. Lowest pressure is 29.74 inches (29.74 inches is exactly 1007 millibars). Also of note, under the "continuous winds" section, the 2:40 am one reads 34.8 knots.

[brunota2003]

4:50 am: WSW to SW winds, highest 1-minute sustained winds of 42.7 knots at 3:57 am, with gusts to 48.6 knots. Continuous winds section: 4:00 am WSW ( 241 deg ) 37.5 kts. Lowest pressure thus far was at the 3:50 am update (29.72 inches, or 1006.3 millibars).

[crimi481]

Appears that the "second" low - that was part of Emily - has emerged of Florida's S.W. Coast
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/vis-l.jpg

[wxman57]

Appears that the "second" low - that was part of Emily - has emerged of Florida's S.W. Coast
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/vis-l.jpg

There's no low pressure area, just an area of thunderstorms. Nothing to be concerned about.

[crimi481]

OK -thanks

[crimi481]

Can this mid level system come to surface?
Off w. coast FL - little south Tamp bay area in Gulf?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-bd.html

[Kory]

Can this mid level system come to surface?
Off w. coast FL - little south Tamp bay area in Gulf?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-bd.html

Not likely at all. High pressure is dominating the Gulf of Mexico...lots of shear and dry air.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthDadeFish]

Back up to 20%:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY...LOCATED
ABOUT 500 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD NEAR 30
MPH AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[MississippiWx]

She's BACK....

AL, 05, 2011080900, , BEST, 0, 352N, 590W, 25, 1011, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[SouthDadeFish]

She's BACK....

AL, 05, 2011080900, , BEST, 0, 352N, 590W, 25, 1011, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

I'm not sure about that. It's had her listed as TD for the last couple of days....

[supercane]

Latest IR:

Latest microwave:

Moving into high shear:

ASCAT missed.