EPAC: EUGENE - Post-tropical

[Chacor]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107301404
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011073012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962011
EP, 96, 2011073012, , BEST, 0, 101N, 962W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


ABPZ20 KNHC 301732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 30 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 301814
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1814 UTC SAT JUL 30 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962011) 20110730 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110730  1800   110731  0600   110731  1800   110801  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.4N  97.2W   10.6N  98.5W   10.5N 100.1W   10.5N 101.8W
BAMD    10.4N  97.2W   10.6N  98.7W   11.1N 100.5W   11.5N 102.4W
BAMM    10.4N  97.2W   10.7N  98.6W   11.1N 100.3W   11.4N 102.1W
LBAR    10.4N  97.2W   10.6N  98.9W   11.1N 100.9W   11.7N 103.3W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          39KTS          46KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          39KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110801  1800   110802  1800   110803  1800   110804  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.3N 103.3W   10.2N 106.0W   11.1N 107.2W   13.2N 106.9W
BAMD    12.0N 104.6W   12.8N 108.7W   13.1N 112.1W   13.2N 114.8W
BAMM    11.7N 103.9W   12.1N 107.0W   12.4N 109.1W   13.0N 110.2W
LBAR    12.5N 105.8W   13.8N 111.7W   14.7N 117.1W   11.4N 123.0W
SHIP        54KTS          63KTS          67KTS          72KTS
DSHP        54KTS          63KTS          67KTS          72KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.4N LONCUR =  97.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  10.0N LONM12 =  95.6W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =   9.5N LONM24 =  94.1W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[somethingfunny]

The models have been advertising this one for a long time. It should become Eugene, and follow the typical EPAC track.

Can the EPAC go 5 for 5 and make this one a hurricane too?

[KWT]

SHIPS are agressive with this system, ECM on the other hand isn't quite as agressive and doesn't do a huge amount, probably a weak TS.

[Migle]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 30 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN

[KWT]

Wow they've raised the chances of this system developing qwuite rapidly, going to be a close call as to what basin gets the 5th TS first!

[Yellow Evan]

Has a shot at another MH IMO.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 30 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
A LOW CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SUNDAY. THE LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[somethingfunny]

s2k_twitter is buzzing about in #storm2k on mIRC about a renumbering here. I don't see it posted anywhere yet but look at this system regardless of its' designation; it's way better looking than 91L:

[Extratropical94]

Both 95 and 96 have somehow been renumbered to 05E xD
Look at ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb for more information on that.
Now I'm curious what the NHC will do.

[somethingfunny]

It must have been a typo.

[Chacor]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep962011_ep052011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
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201107310745
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 05, 2011, DB, O, 2011073012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP052011
EP, 05, 2011072918, , BEST, 0, 95N, 941W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2011073000, , BEST, 0, 98N, 949W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2011073006, , BEST, 0, 100N, 956W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2011073012, , BEST, 0, 102N, 963W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2011073018, , BEST, 0, 104N, 974W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 05, 2011073100, , BEST, 0, 104N, 985W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 60, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 05, 2011073106, , BEST, 0, 106N, 998W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 250, 60, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[Chacor]

WTPZ45 KNHC 310838
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011

DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE NEAR THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. A FAIRLY
WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND EXTENDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PERHAPS A LITTLE
EXPOSED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH
T2.0...AND THE LOW IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY DIAGNOSING ABOUT 15 KT OF
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION...WHICH LIKELY EXPLAINS THE
EXPOSED CENTER...AND THIS SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ALL
THAT MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS...CLOSE
TO A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS SHIPS AND LGEM.
SOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR BY DAY 5 AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES
COLDER WATER.

SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED
SOMEWHAT RECENTLY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/8. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE EMBEDDED IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
OF THE UNITED STATES AND EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. IT IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAIN WELL OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS LEFT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IN DEFERENCE TO THE FASTER-MOVING ECMWF MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 10.7N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 11.1N 100.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 12.0N 102.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 12.8N 104.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 13.5N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 15.0N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 16.5N 112.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Extratropical94]

[...]
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 10.7N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 11.1N 100.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 12.0N 102.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 12.8N 104.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 13.5N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 15.0N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 16.5N 112.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
[...]

Quite decent chance for an EPAC season start of 5/5

[KWT]

Yep looks like a reasonable chance that TD5 will become a hurricane down the line.

[Extratropical94]

By the way, if 91L does develop and becomes TD Five, I wonder what was the last occasion that the NHC issued advisories on two depressions with the same number (like Five and Five-E).

[Chacor]

I would assume it's not too uncommon for there to be advisories on both a TD1 and a TD1E.

[Cyclenall]

Wasn't this like 10% just 24 hours ago? Right now it's TD5-E so if it went from nothing to that in 19 hours I'd say that's one of the fastest developing tropical waves I've ever seen. Are the conditions completely perfect or something?

The NHC is forecasting it to become the 5th hurricane in a row for the Epac. Now this is both cool and worrisome because it seems like more often than not whenever the NHC forecasts peak intensity for Epac systems at 65 knots (for the first advisory), they jinx it. This is the first time this season all those conditions have been met. The exception is whenever a TC is forecast to be way higher than minimum hurricane strength.

[RL3AO]

By the way, if 91L does develop and becomes TD Five, I wonder what was the last occasion that the NHC issued advisories on two depressions with the same number (like Five and Five-E).

Couldn't find one since 2005 where they were both depressions at the same time. Found multiple where they were the same storm at the same time (04L and 04E for example). Dennis/Dora and Emily/Eugene in 2005 and Barry/Barbara in 2007. Can't rule out that I missed some.

[RL3AO]

EP, 05, 2011073112, , BEST, 0, 109N, 1002W, 35, 1004, TS