WPAC: Tropical Depression (INVEST 99W)

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Chacor
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WPAC: Tropical Depression (INVEST 99W)

#1 Postby Chacor » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:39 am

This one's not been picked up by NRL or JTWC.

WTPQ22 RJTD 030900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 29.4N 144.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 040900UTC 30.0N 141.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Really quite far north.
Last edited by Chacor on Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Chacor » Wed Aug 03, 2011 5:43 am

The next name is Nanmadol, named after a Micronesian ruin.

The last Typhoon Nanmadol, in 2004, struck in late November/early December and was a 90 kt storm at peak from JMA.
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#3 Postby Chacor » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:26 am

99W now up on NRL: 99WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-291N-1448E
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#4 Postby Chacor » Wed Aug 03, 2011 8:28 am

WTPQ22 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 29.9N 143.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 31.3N 140.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (INVEST 99W)

#5 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:07 pm

JMA forecasting this to become a tropical storm between muifa and merbok but i don't see anything significant. this should come close to japan but we will see if it develops...

nanmadol in 2004 peaked at 130 knot super typhoon strength 1 minute winds.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (INVEST 99W)

#6 Postby underthwx » Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:55 pm

may remain weak following in a Typhoons path?
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#7 Postby supercane » Wed Aug 03, 2011 8:59 pm

Looks like JMA is no longer writing advisories on this:
Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (INVEST 99W)

#8 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 04, 2011 11:08 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 30.5N
143.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 140.9E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF CHICHI-JIMA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 032347Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. THE LLCC HAS
DEVELOPED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND, BASED ON AMSU TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY CROSS-SECTIONS, IS SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE A
WARM CORE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS AN ELONGATED
SIGNATURE BUT DOES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED A MOISTENING
PHASE. A 032359Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 10- TO 15- KNOT CENTRAL WINDS
WITH STRONGER 20- TO 25- KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH A
TROUGH IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG, NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNFAVORABLE,
BUT BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC AND ASSOCIATED WINDS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

chances to develop decreasing though.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (INVEST 99W)

#9 Postby underthwx » Mon Aug 08, 2011 8:37 pm

good news if there are no threats for awhile
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#10 Postby supercane » Mon Aug 08, 2011 8:50 pm

Not so, both 92W and 93W are TDs per JMA, and the former is under a TCFA.

Mods, could this be moved to archives, as this invest has not been active for a few days now?
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