ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[GCANE]

Convection may not be pretty at the moment, but looks really good on WV in the sense it is pushing away dry air and has a strong outflow / anticyclone signature.

A classic protected pouch.

[AHS2011]

If invest 92l and 93l form at the same time, could they have the fujiiwhara effect of each other? Or will one absorb another?

[mutley]

So did I look at the GFS right? 92L slams into Pensacola while 93L hits the East coast?

Yep, you saw correctly. That's why I was saying, that's one scary looking map!!
I can't even imagine how crazy this board would be if that came to pass.

Yikes, I know I'd be glued to the computer and going without sleep.

[gatorcane]

So fat 92l is behaving as expected. I did not expect development due to dry air and dust across the MDR as mentioned this past weekend.

Development chances do increase once it gets farther west past 55W but it depends on 93l.

93l has a better chance since there will be less dust and dry air as 92l is clearing that out for it.

[Extratropical94]

8AM - remains at 30%

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

[Aric Dunn]

not doing to well this morning at all... its becoming quite elongated. and dry air and easterly shear seems to have killed the convection.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 92, 2011081106, , BEST, 0, 127N, 328W, 25, 1010, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 111216
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1216 UTC THU AUG 11 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110811 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110811  0600   110811  1800   110812  0600   110812  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.7N  32.8W   13.8N  35.1W   14.7N  37.9W   15.7N  41.4W
BAMD    12.7N  32.8W   13.7N  35.5W   14.5N  38.5W   15.3N  41.8W
BAMM    12.7N  32.8W   14.0N  35.2W   14.9N  38.0W   15.8N  41.5W
LBAR    12.7N  32.8W   13.4N  35.4W   14.4N  38.4W   15.3N  42.2W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          45KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110813  0600   110814  0600   110815  0600   110816  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.8N  45.2W   20.4N  53.4W   24.8N  60.8W   29.6N  64.7W
BAMD    16.1N  45.2W   17.9N  51.4W   19.6N  56.2W   20.8N  61.1W
BAMM    16.9N  45.3W   19.8N  52.7W   22.9N  59.1W   26.3N  64.3W
LBAR    16.2N  45.8W   18.2N  52.7W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        52KTS          61KTS          59KTS          57KTS
DSHP        52KTS          61KTS          59KTS          57KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.7N LONCUR =  32.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  12.5N LONM12 =  31.0W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  12.3N LONM24 =  29.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  275NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[HurricaneFan]

not doing to well this morning at all... its becoming quite elongated. and dry air and easterly shear seems to have killed the convection.

Easterly shear?,and it's moving at only 10 to 15mph

[GCANE]

Again, just like Emily, core gets compressed during the day which puts a lid on development and maintains 92L as a wave.

If this continues, the forecasted recurve could occur latter in time and further west.

[plasticup]

If invest 92l and 93l form at the same time, could they have the fujiiwhara effect of each other? Or will one absorb another?

It is unlikely that they will simultaneously be strong enough to exhibit a meaningful fujiiwhara interaction.

[ROCK]

If invest 92l and 93l form at the same time, could they have the fujiiwhara effect of each other? Or will one absorb another?

It is unlikely that they will simultaneously be strong enough to exhibit a meaningful fujiiwhara interaction.

agree....I suspect both will remain TWs until at least for a few more days....

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian shows a building high off the east coast with 92L underneath

[Ivanhater]

UP TO 40 PERCENT

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

[Aric Dunn]

Not sure why they went up... its less organized than yesterday and is not showing any signs of improving today.. but oh well

[Ivanhater]

Not sure why they went up... its less organized than yesterday and is not showing any signs of improving today.. but oh well

Could be today's bullish model support...GFS, CMC, and Euro all develop this well before 93L and in the next couple of days. Only thing I can think of.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Maybe they are thinking that 93L is going to catch 92L and not knowing which will be which in 48 hours they just upped both of them.

[Aric Dunn]

Not sure why they went up... its less organized than yesterday and is not showing any signs of improving today.. but oh well

Could be today's bullish model support...GFS, CMC, and Euro all develop this well before 93L and in the next couple of days. Only thing I can think of.

yeah possibly. or they are just being methodical...

[ROCK]

they are so far out there...I would have left it at 30% for now....weird...I would love to be a fly on the wall when they are discussing percentages...

[OuterBanker]

BTW Ivan, where's 93l on the CMC? Sholdn't it be right behind?