ATL : GERT - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Another one that will be short of reaching hurricane status.

INIT 14/0300Z 27.9N 61.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 28.6N 62.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 30.1N 63.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 32.0N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 35.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 43.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

[Ptarmigan]

its like an el nino type season, but on steriods. Everything above 25N has formed, most below has really struggled. Sure does look like 7, probs on its way to gert...

Yet, there is no El Nino and could be returning to La Nina.

[Aric Dunn]

About time.. geez.... should have been 24hrs ago..

[Aric Dunn]

Side note.. the last 4 or 5 hours.. the TD has turned more westerly possibly a sign the ridging to the west is build north of it slightly.

[Bobo2000]

This season has been bananas! Straight 5 TS' and no HURRICANES! This is really annoying me now. ALL OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING NEAR OR ABOVE BERMUDA!

[Swimdude]

This season has been bananas! Straight 5 TS' and no HURRICANES! This is really annoying me now. ALL OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING NEAR OR ABOVE BERMUDA!

You're right--all of them except for two-thirds of them--Arlene, Bret, Don, Emily, & TD7 all formed South of Bermuda.

[KWT]

Looking sheared still at the moment, new convection developing a little closer to the SE side of the LLC.

Recon will be heading in there pretty soon.

[Nimbus]

Side note.. the last 4 or 5 hours.. the TD has turned more westerly possibly a sign the ridging to the west is build north of it slightly.

The vortex I spotted last night was at the same latitude. Looks like the light shear from the north is causing the center to crab its way west continually reforming on the south side of the circulation under the convection. Doubt the models have that factored in so if it continues we may see some track changes.

[KWT]

Yep as the advisory has noted the system does look like its picked up abit more of a westerly heading.

[plasticup]

So far this has made for a weird looking seasonal map. All TD and TS.

[dwsqos2]

An ASCAT pass from 13:23Z had unflagged 30 knot vectors. Despite the disheveled appearance of TD7, ASCAT has a bit of a low bias, so make of that what you will.

[KWT]

Yep plasticup, sure is in need of some yellow on that map, been a very odd season thus far...mind you last season at this point we were on 3/1/0...so given we maybe on 7NS very soon I'm not too concerned ny the prospects of the season...yet.

Anyway this is probably quite close to being a TS now judging by the improved convection, though the NHC may hold at 30kts for now...

[jinftl]

NHC sounds a bit more bullish on 11am Discussion for this at least becoming a moderate intensity tropical storm (forecast peak went from 50 mph at 5am advisory to 60 mph on the 11 am advisory. They are giving it a 19% chance of becoming a hurricane, up from 14% chance at 5am).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2011

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP OVER AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IN RESPONSE TO
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
ALTHOUGH DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO T1.5 AND T1.0 FROM TAFB
AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30 KT AND
THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SINCE THE 12Z SATELLITE FIXES.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING INTO A COL
REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS LOCATED
ABOUT 150 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...THE PREVIOUS
WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR REGIME IS BEING REPLACED BY A MORE
FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS...WHICH WOULD
NORMALLY FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS FAVORABLE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER SUB-26C SSTS BY 48 HOURS. THESE OUT-OF-PHASE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. BY DAY 4...THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.

[Florida1118]

Eh...We dont have a RECON thread do we...

[cycloneye]

Eh...We dont have a RECON thread do we...

Go ahead and make it.

[Hurricane Jed]

Well just because we haven't had any hurricanes yet doesn't mean the season is a total bust. We've already had 6 named storms and could have a seventh and an eighth in the coming days. Sometimes it just takes awhile to get the pot really boiling.

[dwsqos2]

I saw a 43 knot flight-level, 850 mb, maximum and a whole host of SFMR values over 35 knots. It's probably Gert.

[jinftl]

Good call!!!


TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
200 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 63.1W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


Could this be hurricane #1 in the next 48 hours?

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


Satellite loop shows a system looking less sheared, developing convection closer to the center, and showing some cirrus fanning out which usually indicates an environment conducive to intensification.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

I saw a 43 knot flight-level, 850 mb, maximum and a whole host of SFMR values over 35 knots. It's probably Gert.

[Gustywind]

With Gert now... it's a record with 7 streak TS...

[jinftl]

Looking much healthier than she did just a few hours ago even...note the cirrus fanning out on the west and south side. Center is embedded in deep convection.