CPAC: FERNANDA - Tropical Depression

[Kingarabian]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep982011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
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201108130114
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011081218, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP982011
EP, 98, 2011081200, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1187W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2011081206, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1191W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2011081212, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1194W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2011081218, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1201W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 98, 2011081300, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1208W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[jaguarjace]

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

Up to 30%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

[Extratropical94]

6/6 doesn't seem to be out of the realm of possibility IMHO.

[Kingarabian]

Pretty interesting to see how this develops considering the cool waters in its area.

[CrazyC83]

Make that 70%.

FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

[Extratropical94]

Wow, the EPAC is bombing. Probably TD 6-E at 5PM EDT / 2PM PDT?

[Chacor]

Most recent IR:


Meanwhile, TS Franklin:

Make your own comparisons...

[Extratropical94]

80%

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 1150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS ON A DEVELOPING TREND...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.


And the Dvorak estimate:

13/1800 UTC 12.2N 123.2W T1.5/1.5 98E -- East Pacific

Given the system is expected to strenghten, this T# would support a renumber -> TD Six-E

[Yellow Evan]

Err, does not look to good.

[Kingarabian]

Could be a possible threat to Hawaii? (If it even lasts that long).

[Extratropical94]

Well the island of Hawai'i is located at 19.5N, 155.5W, so the GFS, HWRF and GFDL do point towards that region.
But don't forget, SSTs in that area are "only" about 25C/77F, so significant strengthening could occur where 98E is located now, but most likely not around Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 1175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Chacor]

Does look like our first basin-crosser of the season.

[KWT]

Still pumping up convection, I'm a little surprised this hasn't been upgraded actually to be honest given its presentation, but its close...

[Kingarabian]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1325 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

[KWT]

I'm a little surprised they actually dropped the percentages, it still looks pretty good IMO.

[Kingarabian]

I'm a little surprised they actually dropped the percentages, it still looks pretty good IMO.

Exposed and convection is diminishing.



[img]ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR
10 MPH.
[/img]

[Kingarabian]

Models still bring it close to Hawaii by Thursday.

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Dvorak Classification:
T2.0/2.0 98E