BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...TROPICAL
STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 61.6W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
WILL APPROACH BERMUDA ON SUNDAY AND PASS NEAR OR EAST OF BERMUDA
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS DEVELOPED PERSISTENT CENTRAL
CONVECTION AROUND A TIGHTLY-WOUND LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 30 KT...AND BASED ON THESE
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THE SYSTEM AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVEN.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BREAK DOWN THE
WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE...CAUSING THE DEPRESSION TO TURN NORTHWARD
BY 36 HR AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES BY 72 HR.
THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE FORECAST BEING
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFDL MODEL FORECASTS. A POTENTIAL
COMPLICATION TO THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHOWN BY THE UKMET MODEL...
WHICH FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO EXPERIENCE ERRATIC MOTION DURING
THE NEXT 48 HR AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ABOUT
400 N MI TO THE SOUTHEAST. IF SUCH INTERACTION OCCURS...IT WOULD
DELAY THE APPROACH OF THE DEPRESSION TO BERMUDA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THESE SYSTEMS ARE HELPING TO
PRODUCE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS WELL AS
ADVECTING UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION...
A LARGE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ARE
APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION FROM THE EAST. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR THE NEXT 48 HR TO ALLOW DEVELOPMENT...
THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM
WATER. AFTER 72 HR...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED INTO A
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED SOMETIME ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 27.9N 61.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 28.6N 62.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 30.1N 63.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 32.0N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 35.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 43.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
ATL: GERT - Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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ATL: GERT - Advisories
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Advisories
For the record.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY. IN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0600 UTC WERE 30
KT...AND AN ASCAT PASS AT 0100 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 25
TO 30 KT RANGE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
HELD AT 30 KT. SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM
WATER AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND DRY AIR
AROUND IT...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS NOW FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
CROSSES A VERY SHARP SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND INTERACTS
WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. BY DAY 4...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT.
THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...AS EXPECTED...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN STRONGER FLOW
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND A TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ONE SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND UKMET
MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION INTERACTING WITH...OR ABSORBING...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. IF THIS OCCURS...THE
DEPRESSION COULD MOVE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 28.5N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 29.4N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 31.2N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 33.7N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 37.3N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 45.5N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY. IN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0600 UTC WERE 30
KT...AND AN ASCAT PASS AT 0100 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 25
TO 30 KT RANGE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
HELD AT 30 KT. SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM
WATER AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND DRY AIR
AROUND IT...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS NOW FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
CROSSES A VERY SHARP SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND INTERACTS
WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. BY DAY 4...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT.
THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...AS EXPECTED...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN STRONGER FLOW
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND A TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ONE SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND UKMET
MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION INTERACTING WITH...OR ABSORBING...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. IF THIS OCCURS...THE
DEPRESSION COULD MOVE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 28.5N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 29.4N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 31.2N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 33.7N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 37.3N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 45.5N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011
...DEPRESSION MAKES A SLIGHT JOG TO THE WEST BUT STILL MOVING
TOWARD BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 62.9W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL APPROACH
BERMUDA TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES...BASED
ON RECENT NOAA BUOY REPORTS.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011
...DEPRESSION MAKES A SLIGHT JOG TO THE WEST BUT STILL MOVING
TOWARD BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 62.9W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL APPROACH
BERMUDA TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES...BASED
ON RECENT NOAA BUOY REPORTS.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2011
...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT EXPECTED
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA BY TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 63.2W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL APPROACH BERMUDA
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES...BASED
ON RECENT NOAA BUOY REPORTS.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2011
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP OVER AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IN RESPONSE TO
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
ALTHOUGH DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO T1.5 AND T1.0 FROM TAFB
AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30 KT AND
THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SINCE THE 12Z SATELLITE FIXES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING INTO A COL
REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS LOCATED
ABOUT 150 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...THE PREVIOUS
WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR REGIME IS BEING REPLACED BY A MORE
FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS...WHICH WOULD
NORMALLY FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS FAVORABLE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER SUB-26C SSTS BY 48 HOURS. THESE OUT-OF-PHASE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. BY DAY 4...THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED AND MADE AN UNEXPECTED JOG TO THE WEST...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/09. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS LESS STRAIGHTFORWARD THAN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE RECENT
WESTWARD JOG IS PROBABLY DUE IN PART TO THE SYSTEM BECOMING MORE
VERTICALLY SHALLOW AFTER THE DEEP CONVECTION WEAKENED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. NOW THAT CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. BEYOND 12
HOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED. THE 12Z
UPPER-AIR DATA FROM BERMUDA THIS MORNING INDICATES THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW FROM 700-400 MB HAS BACKED AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND
HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN 40-60 METERS WITHIN THIS LAYER. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION HAS
WEAKENED...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OR
EVEN NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING BERMUDA RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST IS THE
LIKELY CAUSE OF THE EROSION OF THE RIDGE. WITH THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH STILL OVER THE U.S. OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...THE RIDGE
COULD TEMPORARILY BUILD BACK WESTWARD BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
DEPRESSION...RESULTING IN A STAIR-STEP TYPE OF MOTION TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE CYCLONE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY
36-48 HOURS AND TAKE IT ACROSS MUCH COLDER WATER IN 60-72
HOURS...WHICH WILL INDUCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS BASED ON THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL
POSITION...AND LIES JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...BUT WELL TO THE EAST OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED BAM MODELS.
AS A RESULT OF THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH
BRINGS THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO BERMUDA...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 28.2N 63.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 29.6N 63.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 31.8N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 34.9N 62.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 38.6N 58.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 47.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2011
...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT EXPECTED
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA BY TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 63.2W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL APPROACH BERMUDA
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES...BASED
ON RECENT NOAA BUOY REPORTS.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2011
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP OVER AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IN RESPONSE TO
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
ALTHOUGH DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO T1.5 AND T1.0 FROM TAFB
AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30 KT AND
THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SINCE THE 12Z SATELLITE FIXES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING INTO A COL
REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS LOCATED
ABOUT 150 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...THE PREVIOUS
WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR REGIME IS BEING REPLACED BY A MORE
FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS...WHICH WOULD
NORMALLY FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS FAVORABLE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER SUB-26C SSTS BY 48 HOURS. THESE OUT-OF-PHASE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. BY DAY 4...THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED AND MADE AN UNEXPECTED JOG TO THE WEST...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/09. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS LESS STRAIGHTFORWARD THAN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE RECENT
WESTWARD JOG IS PROBABLY DUE IN PART TO THE SYSTEM BECOMING MORE
VERTICALLY SHALLOW AFTER THE DEEP CONVECTION WEAKENED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. NOW THAT CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. BEYOND 12
HOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED. THE 12Z
UPPER-AIR DATA FROM BERMUDA THIS MORNING INDICATES THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW FROM 700-400 MB HAS BACKED AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND
HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN 40-60 METERS WITHIN THIS LAYER. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION HAS
WEAKENED...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OR
EVEN NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING BERMUDA RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST IS THE
LIKELY CAUSE OF THE EROSION OF THE RIDGE. WITH THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH STILL OVER THE U.S. OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...THE RIDGE
COULD TEMPORARILY BUILD BACK WESTWARD BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
DEPRESSION...RESULTING IN A STAIR-STEP TYPE OF MOTION TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE CYCLONE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY
36-48 HOURS AND TAKE IT ACROSS MUCH COLDER WATER IN 60-72
HOURS...WHICH WILL INDUCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS BASED ON THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL
POSITION...AND LIES JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...BUT WELL TO THE EAST OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED BAM MODELS.
AS A RESULT OF THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH
BRINGS THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO BERMUDA...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 28.2N 63.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 29.6N 63.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 31.8N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 34.9N 62.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 38.6N 58.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 47.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
200 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 63.1W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GERT WILL APPROACH BERMUDA TONIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
200 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 63.1W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GERT WILL APPROACH BERMUDA TONIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: GERT - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM GERT AND SMALL BANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP
IN THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE THIS
AFTERNOON FOUND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 43 KT IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ALONG WITH UNCONTAMINATED SFMR WINDS OF 39 AND
41 KT. THE SFMR WINDS CORRELATE WELL WITH AN EARLIER 1324Z ASCAT
PASS THAT INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 40 KT IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE RECENT SFMR WINDS AND
EARLIER ASCAT WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.
NOW THAT GERT HAS REDEVELOPED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
HAS BECOME A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL STORM HAS
STARTED MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 335/07...TOWARD A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING EASTWARD OVER AND NORTH OF
BERMUDA WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ITS WAKE...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD BACK WESTWARD AND CREATE
SOME STAIR-STEP MOTIONS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOVING
STEADILY EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY ERODING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 32N LATITUDE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS
A RESULT... THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
STEER GERT NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN
ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND LIES CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY
PACKED GLOBAL MODEL SUITE.
GERT HAS MOVED INTO A WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH HAS ALLOWED DEEP CONVECTION TO
PERSIST AND PRODUCE A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE STORM.
THIS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...ALONG WITH WARM SSTS ABOVE
28C...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OT SO. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING. AFTER
THAT...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING EVEN
THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LOW. BY 48
HOURS...GERT WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 30 KT.
THIS COMBINATION OF UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
CAUSE GERT TO MAKE THE TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 28.9N 63.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 30.3N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 32.3N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 34.9N 61.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 38.9N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 46.0N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM GERT AND SMALL BANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP
IN THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE THIS
AFTERNOON FOUND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 43 KT IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ALONG WITH UNCONTAMINATED SFMR WINDS OF 39 AND
41 KT. THE SFMR WINDS CORRELATE WELL WITH AN EARLIER 1324Z ASCAT
PASS THAT INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 40 KT IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE RECENT SFMR WINDS AND
EARLIER ASCAT WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.
NOW THAT GERT HAS REDEVELOPED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
HAS BECOME A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL STORM HAS
STARTED MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 335/07...TOWARD A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING EASTWARD OVER AND NORTH OF
BERMUDA WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ITS WAKE...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD BACK WESTWARD AND CREATE
SOME STAIR-STEP MOTIONS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOVING
STEADILY EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY ERODING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 32N LATITUDE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS
A RESULT... THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
STEER GERT NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN
ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND LIES CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY
PACKED GLOBAL MODEL SUITE.
GERT HAS MOVED INTO A WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH HAS ALLOWED DEEP CONVECTION TO
PERSIST AND PRODUCE A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE STORM.
THIS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...ALONG WITH WARM SSTS ABOVE
28C...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OT SO. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING. AFTER
THAT...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING EVEN
THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LOW. BY 48
HOURS...GERT WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 30 KT.
THIS COMBINATION OF UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
CAUSE GERT TO MAKE THE TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 28.9N 63.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 30.3N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 32.3N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 34.9N 61.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 38.9N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 46.0N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: GERT - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
800 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011
...GERT EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA ON MONDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 63.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. GERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GERT IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF BERMUDA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM..
MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL...GERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON BERMUDA.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GERT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA
LATER TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
800 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011
...GERT EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA ON MONDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 63.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. GERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GERT IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF BERMUDA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM..
MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL...GERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON BERMUDA.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GERT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA
LATER TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: ATL: GERT - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...GERT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY CIRCULAR
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT IS LACKING IN BANDING FEATURES. A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT FORMED OVER THE STORM IS
PROVIDING SOME MODEST OUTFLOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS
FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40
KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
GERT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION. BY AROUND 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN
ABRUPT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR AS GERT APPROACHES A BELT OF
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN 72 HOURS...PERHAPS
SOONER...GERT IS LIKELY TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A FRONTAL ZONE AND
TRANSFORMED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE HIGH-LATITUDE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD SPEED IS
INCREASING AND THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 345/10. GERT
IS MOVING BETWEEN A RATHER DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NEARING
THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE LATEST
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK OF GERT AS ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS COULD BRING STRONG WINDS CLOSE TO...OR OVER...THE
ISLAND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 30.2N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 31.9N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 34.7N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 38.5N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 42.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 47.0N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...GERT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY CIRCULAR
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT IS LACKING IN BANDING FEATURES. A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT FORMED OVER THE STORM IS
PROVIDING SOME MODEST OUTFLOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS
FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40
KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
GERT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION. BY AROUND 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN
ABRUPT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR AS GERT APPROACHES A BELT OF
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN 72 HOURS...PERHAPS
SOONER...GERT IS LIKELY TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A FRONTAL ZONE AND
TRANSFORMED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE HIGH-LATITUDE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD SPEED IS
INCREASING AND THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 345/10. GERT
IS MOVING BETWEEN A RATHER DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NEARING
THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE LATEST
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK OF GERT AS ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS COULD BRING STRONG WINDS CLOSE TO...OR OVER...THE
ISLAND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 30.2N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 31.9N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 34.7N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 38.5N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 42.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 47.0N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 150532
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
200 AM AST MON AUG 15 2011
...OUTER BANDS OF GERT APPROACHING BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 63.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST. GERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GERT IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF BERMUDA ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA EARLY
MONDAY.
RAINFALL...GERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON BERMUDA.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GERT ARE APPROACHING BERMUDA.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
WTNT32 KNHC 150532
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
200 AM AST MON AUG 15 2011
...OUTER BANDS OF GERT APPROACHING BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 63.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST. GERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GERT IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF BERMUDA ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA EARLY
MONDAY.
RAINFALL...GERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON BERMUDA.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GERT ARE APPROACHING BERMUDA.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 150838
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 AM AST MON AUG 15 2011
...GERT STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA LATER
TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 63.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST. GERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF GERT WILL PASS NEAR OR EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER THIS
MORNING.
RAINFALL...GERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON BERMUDA.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GERT ARE APPROACHING BERMUDA.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
WTNT32 KNHC 150838
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 AM AST MON AUG 15 2011
...GERT STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA LATER
TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 63.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST. GERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF GERT WILL PASS NEAR OR EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER THIS
MORNING.
RAINFALL...GERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON BERMUDA.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GERT ARE APPROACHING BERMUDA.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139086
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: GERT - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 15 2011
THE PRESENTATION OF GERT IN DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM BERMUDA
HAS INDICATED BRIEF PERIODIC TIGHTENING OF THE INNER CORE
CIRCULATION...INCLUDING A SMALL 6-8 NMI DIAMETER EYE-LIKE
FEATURE...ONLY TO HAVE THE CONVECTION WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
DUE TO INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 53 KT AND A FEW UNCONTAMINATED 49-51 KT SFMR WINDS IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...ACCOMPANIED BY A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF NEAR
1000 MB. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/10 KT. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. GERT HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HAS NOW REACHED THE AXIS OF
THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT LIES ALONG 32N LATITUDE. AS THE
LARGE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST
CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS...GERT SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS.
SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF GERT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND BENEATH
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. HOWEVER...GERT IS A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE
SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND SLIGHT INCREASES IN VERTICAL SHEAR. AS A
RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BEING HELD JUST BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH. BY 24 HOURS...GERT WILL BE MOVING OVER SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN 26C...AND OVER WATER COOLER THAN 20C BY 48
HOURS. AS A RESULT...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 24 HOURS
AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY 48 HOURS WHEN
THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ALSO BEGINS
TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODEL SOLUTIONS. EXTRATROPICAL
INTENSITY FORECASTS WERE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER.
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 32.0N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 34.3N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 37.8N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 40.8N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 43.4N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1200Z 48.5N 33.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 AM AST MON AUG 15 2011
THE PRESENTATION OF GERT IN DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM BERMUDA
HAS INDICATED BRIEF PERIODIC TIGHTENING OF THE INNER CORE
CIRCULATION...INCLUDING A SMALL 6-8 NMI DIAMETER EYE-LIKE
FEATURE...ONLY TO HAVE THE CONVECTION WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
DUE TO INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 53 KT AND A FEW UNCONTAMINATED 49-51 KT SFMR WINDS IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...ACCOMPANIED BY A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF NEAR
1000 MB. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/10 KT. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. GERT HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HAS NOW REACHED THE AXIS OF
THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT LIES ALONG 32N LATITUDE. AS THE
LARGE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST
CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS...GERT SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS.
SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF GERT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND BENEATH
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. HOWEVER...GERT IS A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE
SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND SLIGHT INCREASES IN VERTICAL SHEAR. AS A
RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BEING HELD JUST BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH. BY 24 HOURS...GERT WILL BE MOVING OVER SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN 26C...AND OVER WATER COOLER THAN 20C BY 48
HOURS. AS A RESULT...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 24 HOURS
AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY 48 HOURS WHEN
THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ALSO BEGINS
TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODEL SOLUTIONS. EXTRATROPICAL
INTENSITY FORECASTS WERE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION
CENTER.
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 32.0N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 34.3N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 37.8N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 40.8N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 43.4N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1200Z 48.5N 33.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139086
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: GERT - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 PM AST MON AUG 15 2011
RADAR DATA FROM BERMUDA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE GERT HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN APPEARANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE LAST
RECON FLIGHT LEG THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT PRODUCED AN 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT...WHICH EQUATES TO ROUGHLY 49 KT AT THE
SURFACE. GIVEN THE APPARENT STEADY NATURE OF THE CYCLONE...THE
INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM
SAB...RESPECTIVELY . UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL
QUADRANTS...EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST RATIONALE. GERT HAS
MOVED NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS NOW MOVING TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020/12. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS GERT COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE
DEEP-LAYERED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE
U.S. EAST COAST. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AFTER 12 HOURS...AND LIES ALONG THE EXTREME
RIGHT SIDE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR GERT TO INTENSIFY IS GRADUALLY COMING
TO A CLOSE. THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER AT LEAST 26C SSTS FOR ANOTHER
12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL LOW. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY CALLS FOR GERT TO REACH 55 KT...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CYCLONE COULD REACH 60 KT BETWEEN THE 12- AND
24-HOUR FORECAST PERIODS DURING THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM
PERIOD AROUND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. BY 36 HOURS...GERT WILL BE OVER
NEAR-20C SSTS AND UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
POST-TROPICAL LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC SHORTLY AFTER 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND
EXTRATROPICAL INTENSITY FORECASTS PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 33.2N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 35.7N 60.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 38.9N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 41.7N 51.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1800Z 44.6N 45.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 PM AST MON AUG 15 2011
RADAR DATA FROM BERMUDA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE GERT HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN APPEARANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE LAST
RECON FLIGHT LEG THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT PRODUCED AN 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT...WHICH EQUATES TO ROUGHLY 49 KT AT THE
SURFACE. GIVEN THE APPARENT STEADY NATURE OF THE CYCLONE...THE
INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM
SAB...RESPECTIVELY . UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL
QUADRANTS...EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST RATIONALE. GERT HAS
MOVED NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS NOW MOVING TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020/12. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS GERT COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE
DEEP-LAYERED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE
U.S. EAST COAST. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AFTER 12 HOURS...AND LIES ALONG THE EXTREME
RIGHT SIDE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR GERT TO INTENSIFY IS GRADUALLY COMING
TO A CLOSE. THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER AT LEAST 26C SSTS FOR ANOTHER
12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL LOW. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY CALLS FOR GERT TO REACH 55 KT...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CYCLONE COULD REACH 60 KT BETWEEN THE 12- AND
24-HOUR FORECAST PERIODS DURING THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM
PERIOD AROUND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. BY 36 HOURS...GERT WILL BE OVER
NEAR-20C SSTS AND UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
POST-TROPICAL LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC SHORTLY AFTER 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND
EXTRATROPICAL INTENSITY FORECASTS PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 33.2N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 35.7N 60.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 38.9N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 41.7N 51.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1800Z 44.6N 45.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: GERT - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 15 2011
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND
MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST SOME NORTHEASTWARD TILT OF THE CENTER WITH
HEIGHT. DVORAK ESTIMATES OF INTENSITY RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 KT AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GERT
SHOULD BE TRAVERSING WARM WATER FOR ONLY ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS...
SO WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE IN 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN 36 HOURS AND BECOMING ABSORBED
BY A LARGE NORTH ATLANTIC LOW IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.
CENTER FIXES HAVE BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN THIS EVENING BUT MY BEST
ESTIMATE IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
THE MOTION IS NOW NEAR 030/16. GERT IS BEING SWEPT UP IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE RIGHT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO HIGHER
LATITUDES AND BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A MORE ZONAL STEERING CURRENT.
THD OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0300Z 34.7N 61.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 37.3N 59.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 40.8N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 44.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/0000Z 46.5N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 15 2011
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND
MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST SOME NORTHEASTWARD TILT OF THE CENTER WITH
HEIGHT. DVORAK ESTIMATES OF INTENSITY RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 KT AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GERT
SHOULD BE TRAVERSING WARM WATER FOR ONLY ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS...
SO WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE IN 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN 36 HOURS AND BECOMING ABSORBED
BY A LARGE NORTH ATLANTIC LOW IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.
CENTER FIXES HAVE BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN THIS EVENING BUT MY BEST
ESTIMATE IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
THE MOTION IS NOW NEAR 030/16. GERT IS BEING SWEPT UP IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE RIGHT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO HIGHER
LATITUDES AND BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A MORE ZONAL STEERING CURRENT.
THD OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0300Z 34.7N 61.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 37.3N 59.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 40.8N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 44.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/0000Z 46.5N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139086
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: GERT - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 16 2011
GERT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY VIRTUALLY EVAPORATING AROUND 10Z. MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND TO SOME DEGREE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE...IMPLIED THAT GERT HAS ABOUT 10 KNOTS OF NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW CONFLICTING WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE 300 HPA LEVEL.
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED...THOUGH NEW CONVECTION IS
TRYING TO DEVELOP ON ITS NORTHEAST SIDE WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION
OF A SWITCH IN THE DIRECTION OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN LINE WITH
THE CURRENT T-NUMBER FROM TAFB BUT HIGHER THAN THAT PROVIDED BY
SAB. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE IT CROSSES THE
26C ISOTHERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IT TO RETAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY. GERT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
ABOUT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS NEAR 20C AND INTERACTS WITH
THE APPROACHINIG COLD FRONT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY
RESTRENGTHENING...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LEFT
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD LOSE
DEFINITION WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS ACCELERATING INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/26. THIS
SYSTEM COULD ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY MORE AS GERT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
STEERED BY THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST TRACK AND
TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION INCORPORATE IDEAS COMMUNICATED
BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 38.1N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 41.0N 54.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 44.3N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 18/0000Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER ROTH
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 16 2011
GERT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY VIRTUALLY EVAPORATING AROUND 10Z. MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND TO SOME DEGREE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE...IMPLIED THAT GERT HAS ABOUT 10 KNOTS OF NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW CONFLICTING WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE 300 HPA LEVEL.
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED...THOUGH NEW CONVECTION IS
TRYING TO DEVELOP ON ITS NORTHEAST SIDE WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION
OF A SWITCH IN THE DIRECTION OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN LINE WITH
THE CURRENT T-NUMBER FROM TAFB BUT HIGHER THAN THAT PROVIDED BY
SAB. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE IT CROSSES THE
26C ISOTHERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IT TO RETAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY. GERT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
ABOUT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS NEAR 20C AND INTERACTS WITH
THE APPROACHINIG COLD FRONT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY
RESTRENGTHENING...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LEFT
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD LOSE
DEFINITION WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS ACCELERATING INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/26. THIS
SYSTEM COULD ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY MORE AS GERT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
STEERED BY THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT REMAINS ON THE
EASTWARD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST TRACK AND
TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION INCORPORATE IDEAS COMMUNICATED
BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 38.1N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 41.0N 54.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 44.3N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 18/0000Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER ROTH
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139086
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: ATL: GERT - Advisories
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2011
...GERT DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 54.7W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GERT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST. THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUED UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT WEAKENS TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2011
...GERT DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 54.7W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GERT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST. THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUED UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT WEAKENS TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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